Preseason Rankings
Ivy League
2022-23


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
146 Yale 21.5%   15   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 11 9 - 5 +1.4      -0.8 204 +2.2 114 71.6 86 0.0 1 0.0 1
150 Penn 20.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 13 8 - 6 +1.1      +2.7 105 -1.7 229 69.9 119 0.0 1 0.0 1
165 Princeton 17.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 10 8 - 6 +0.1      +2.2 122 -2.0 240 67.4 203 0.0 1 0.0 1
167 Harvard 16.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 11 8 - 6 +0.1      -1.3 228 +1.4 132 68.0 190 0.0 1 0.0 1
217 Cornell 11.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 13 7 - 7 -2.0      +0.8 166 -2.8 263 78.2 13 0.0 1 0.0 1
240 Brown 8.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 15 6 - 8 -3.3      -2.3 251 -1.0 201 69.0 150 0.0 1 0.0 1
257 Dartmouth 5.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 15 6 - 8 -4.9      -4.2 293 -0.7 193 63.3 314 0.0 1 0.0 1
315 Columbia 1.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 17 4 - 10 -9.2      -3.7 284 -5.6 327 73.0 60 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th
Yale 3.1 27.1 19.6 15.8 12.7 9.9 7.5 4.8 2.6
Penn 3.2 25.2 19.2 16.1 13.0 10.5 7.9 5.5 2.5
Princeton 3.5 21.2 17.8 15.6 14.0 11.7 9.6 6.6 3.5
Harvard 3.6 20.5 17.5 15.7 13.9 11.8 9.6 7.1 3.8
Cornell 4.2 12.8 13.3 14.2 14.6 14.1 13.0 11.3 6.8
Brown 4.6 9.3 10.7 12.5 13.9 14.6 15.4 14.2 9.4
Dartmouth 5.2 5.8 7.9 9.9 12.2 14.4 17.0 18.2 14.7
Columbia 6.5 1.4 2.7 4.2 6.7 9.4 14.6 22.7 38.3




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0
Yale 9 - 5 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.3 4.0 6.2 8.5 10.8 12.5 13.2 13.0 11.4 8.9 5.4 1.9
Penn 8 - 6 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.5 4.6 6.6 9.0 11.1 12.8 13.2 12.8 10.8 8.2 4.7 1.8
Princeton 8 - 6 0.2 0.8 1.7 3.3 5.5 7.9 10.2 11.9 12.6 12.7 11.9 9.7 6.7 3.8 1.2
Harvard 8 - 6 0.2 0.8 1.9 3.6 5.7 8.1 10.1 11.9 12.9 12.8 11.3 9.3 6.6 3.6 1.2
Cornell 7 - 7 0.4 1.7 3.6 6.1 8.5 10.8 12.2 12.8 12.3 10.5 8.7 6.1 3.7 1.9 0.6
Brown 6 - 8 0.8 2.6 5.1 7.8 10.7 12.2 13.0 12.7 10.8 9.4 6.6 4.3 2.7 1.1 0.4
Dartmouth 6 - 8 1.6 4.5 7.7 10.5 12.7 13.3 12.8 11.4 9.0 6.9 4.7 2.9 1.4 0.6 0.1
Columbia 4 - 10 7.1 12.8 15.5 15.8 14.4 11.1 8.7 6.1 3.9 2.3 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Yale 27.1% 18.6 6.8 1.5 0.2 0.0
Penn 25.2% 16.9 6.6 1.6 0.2 0.0
Princeton 21.2% 13.9 5.7 1.4 0.2 0.0
Harvard 20.5% 13.5 5.4 1.4 0.2 0.0
Cornell 12.8% 8.0 3.6 1.0 0.2 0.0
Brown 9.3% 5.5 2.8 0.9 0.1 0.0
Dartmouth 5.8% 3.2 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.0
Columbia 1.4% 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Yale 21.5% 21.0% 0.5% 15   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.5 3.7 4.8 4.4 3.3 2.9 78.5 0.6%
Penn 20.5% 20.0% 0.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.7 4.0 4.7 3.8 2.7 2.6 79.5 0.7%
Princeton 17.2% 16.8% 0.5% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 1.1 3.2 4.0 3.6 2.5 2.1 82.8 0.6%
Harvard 16.6% 16.3% 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.0 2.7 3.6 3.4 2.9 2.5 83.4 0.4%
Cornell 11.0% 10.9% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.3 2.0 2.3 2.2 2.6 89.0 0.2%
Brown 8.2% 8.1% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.4 1.7 1.7 2.2 91.8 0.1%
Dartmouth 5.4% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.2 1.9 94.6 0.0%
Columbia 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 98.4 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Yale 21.5% 2.1% 20.5% 3.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Penn 20.5% 2.1% 19.6% 3.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Princeton 17.2% 1.6% 16.5% 2.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Harvard 16.6% 1.9% 15.7% 2.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cornell 11.0% 1.9% 10.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Brown 8.2% 1.6% 7.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Dartmouth 5.4% 1.3% 4.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Columbia 1.6% 0.6% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 97.9 2.1 0.0
1st Round 94.4% 1.0 5.6 93.1 1.3
2nd Round 12.0% 0.1 88.0 11.9 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 2.8% 0.0 97.2 2.7 0.0
Elite Eight 0.5% 0.0 99.5 0.5
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0