Preseason Rankings
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2022-23


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
101 Iona 35.2%   13   0 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 9 15 - 5 +5.0      +2.7 106 +2.2 113 72.7 68 0.0 1 0.0 1
145 St. Peter's 17.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 10 13 - 7 +1.5      -3.1 266 +4.5 65 65.3 262 0.0 1 0.0 1
218 Rider 8.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 14 10 - 10 -2.3      -1.1 218 -1.2 211 68.0 188 0.0 1 0.0 1
221 Quinnipiac 8.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 14 10 - 10 -2.3      +0.1 177 -2.5 251 71.6 87 0.0 1 0.0 1
222 Fairfield 8.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 15 10 - 10 -2.4      -2.5 254 +0.1 169 62.2 334 0.0 1 0.0 1
227 Manhattan 6.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 14 10 - 10 -2.9      -1.2 221 -1.7 233 70.7 103 0.0 1 0.0 1
239 Niagara 6.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 14 10 - 10 -3.2      -3.1 269 -0.2 176 62.6 327 0.0 1 0.0 1
244 Siena 5.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 16 10 - 10 -3.5      -3.4 278 -0.2 178 66.2 237 0.0 1 0.0 1
267 Mount St. Mary's 3.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 17 8 - 12 -5.6      -5.0 310 -0.5 190 61.2 344 0.0 1 0.0 1
290 Canisius 2.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 19 7 - 13 -7.8      -4.3 298 -3.5 283 70.5 107 0.0 1 0.0 1
296 Marist 1.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 17 7 - 13 -8.0      -5.8 324 -2.2 245 66.1 240 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Iona 2.5 45.2 19.6 12.2 7.7 5.3 3.8 2.5 1.7 1.1 0.6 0.3
St. Peter's 3.7 21.7 19.3 15.1 11.8 9.3 7.2 5.6 4.1 3.0 2.0 0.9
Rider 5.4 8.9 11.0 11.4 11.5 10.9 10.5 9.2 8.6 7.6 6.1 4.2
Quinnipiac 5.4 8.1 10.6 11.5 11.8 11.1 10.6 9.9 8.8 7.5 6.1 3.9
Fairfield 5.4 8.7 10.6 11.4 11.1 11.0 10.5 9.8 8.7 7.5 6.3 4.4
Manhattan 5.7 7.2 9.8 10.7 10.8 10.7 10.3 10.1 9.5 8.5 7.3 5.1
Niagara 5.9 6.9 8.8 9.8 10.4 10.7 10.5 10.6 10.1 8.9 7.8 5.5
Siena 6.0 6.1 8.5 9.8 10.1 10.6 10.5 10.4 10.2 9.3 8.3 6.2
Mount St. Mary's 6.9 3.0 5.4 6.6 7.9 8.9 10.1 11.0 11.6 12.3 12.2 11.0
Canisius 8.0 1.4 2.6 3.9 5.5 6.5 8.1 9.5 11.6 14.1 16.9 19.9
Marist 8.0 1.4 2.7 4.0 5.0 6.1 7.9 9.8 11.4 13.9 16.7 21.1




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Iona 15 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.7 2.6 3.8 5.2 6.5 8.5 10.0 11.2 12.2 12.4 11.0 8.2 4.0
St. Peter's 13 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.4 2.1 3.2 4.4 5.7 7.2 8.7 10.0 10.3 10.6 10.3 9.0 7.0 5.0 2.7 1.0
Rider 10 - 10 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.8 3.1 4.2 5.9 6.9 8.1 8.7 9.7 9.6 9.2 8.2 7.3 6.0 4.1 2.9 1.7 0.8 0.2
Quinnipiac 10 - 10 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.8 3.0 4.5 5.6 7.2 8.6 9.1 9.5 9.8 9.6 8.4 7.2 5.5 3.9 2.7 1.4 0.6 0.2
Fairfield 10 - 10 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.0 3.2 4.4 5.9 7.0 8.2 9.3 9.4 9.7 9.1 8.2 6.9 5.7 4.1 2.8 1.6 0.7 0.2
Manhattan 10 - 10 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.5 3.7 5.1 6.5 7.8 8.7 9.2 9.5 9.2 8.7 7.8 6.4 5.1 3.6 2.4 1.3 0.6 0.1
Niagara 10 - 10 0.2 0.7 1.5 2.5 4.0 5.5 6.9 8.4 9.0 9.4 9.4 9.2 8.4 7.1 6.0 4.5 3.4 2.2 1.1 0.4 0.1
Siena 10 - 10 0.2 0.7 1.6 2.9 4.5 5.6 7.1 8.5 9.1 9.3 9.4 9.0 8.3 7.1 5.8 4.5 3.1 1.8 1.0 0.4 0.1
Mount St. Mary's 8 - 12 0.5 1.7 3.0 4.9 6.8 8.0 9.4 9.6 9.8 9.4 8.6 7.5 6.5 4.9 3.6 2.6 1.7 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.0
Canisius 7 - 13 1.4 3.8 6.0 8.1 9.5 10.4 10.8 9.8 9.0 8.0 6.7 5.2 3.9 2.9 1.9 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
Marist 7 - 13 1.5 3.9 6.3 8.4 9.8 10.5 10.4 9.8 8.9 7.9 6.5 5.0 3.8 2.8 1.9 1.1 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Iona 45.2% 35.9 7.8 1.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
St. Peter's 21.7% 15.2 5.4 1.0 0.1 0.0
Rider 8.9% 5.8 2.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Quinnipiac 8.1% 5.2 2.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Fairfield 8.7% 5.6 2.4 0.6 0.1 0.0
Manhattan 7.2% 4.6 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Niagara 6.9% 4.4 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Siena 6.1% 3.7 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0
Mount St. Mary's 3.0% 1.8 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Canisius 1.4% 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Marist 1.4% 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Iona 35.2% 32.6% 2.6% 13   0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 1.0 1.9 5.5 9.5 7.1 3.8 1.9 1.3 64.8 3.8%
St. Peter's 17.9% 17.3% 0.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.4 3.5 4.5 3.9 2.3 1.4 82.1 0.7%
Rider 8.1% 8.0% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.6 1.9 1.7 1.6 91.9 0.1%
Quinnipiac 8.0% 7.9% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.5 1.9 1.8 1.6 92.0 0.1%
Fairfield 8.1% 8.0% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 1.8 1.8 1.5 1.5 91.9 0.2%
Manhattan 6.9% 6.9% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.4 93.1 0.1%
Niagara 6.4% 6.3% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.5 1.3 1.5 93.6 0.1%
Siena 5.9% 5.8% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.5 94.1 0.1%
Mount St. Mary's 3.4% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.8 1.1 96.6 0.0%
Canisius 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 1.0 98.0 0.0%
Marist 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.8 98.1 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Iona 35.2% 2.0% 34.3% 9.0% 2.7% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
St. Peter's 17.9% 1.1% 17.3% 2.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rider 8.1% 1.0% 7.6% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Quinnipiac 8.0% 1.1% 7.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fairfield 8.1% 1.1% 7.6% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Manhattan 6.9% 0.9% 6.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Niagara 6.4% 1.0% 5.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Siena 5.9% 1.1% 5.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mount St. Mary's 3.4% 0.8% 3.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Canisius 2.0% 0.8% 1.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Marist 1.9% 0.6% 1.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 96.2 3.8 0.0
1st Round 95.6% 1.0 4.4 92.9 2.7 0.0
2nd Round 15.7% 0.2 84.3 15.5 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 4.3% 0.0 95.7 4.2 0.0
Elite Eight 1.0% 0.0 99.0 1.0
Final Four 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Final Game 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0