Preseason Rankings
Niagara
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating-3.2#239
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace62.6#327
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-3.1#269
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-0.2#176
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.4% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.4% 15.7% 5.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.9% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 12.8 14.4
.500 or above 52.2% 85.5% 50.3%
.500 or above in Conference 52.0% 79.2% 50.4%
Conference Champion 6.9% 19.5% 6.1%
Last Place in Conference 8.7% 1.8% 9.1%
First Four1.0% 1.0% 1.0%
First Round5.9% 15.4% 5.3%
Second Round0.5% 2.5% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.8% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.3% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Maryland (Away) - 5.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 32 - 53 - 9
Quad 411 - 614 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 48   @ Maryland L 58-75 6%    
  Nov 12, 2022 274   @ Bucknell L 69-70 49%    
  Nov 18, 2022 334   Central Arkansas W 76-68 76%    
  Nov 19, 2022 292   Stetson W 68-63 65%    
  Nov 26, 2022 49   @ St. John's L 65-82 8%    
  Dec 02, 2022 101   @ Iona L 63-74 17%    
  Dec 04, 2022 221   @ Quinnipiac L 67-71 37%    
  Dec 11, 2022 226   Eastern Michigan W 71-68 59%    
  Dec 18, 2022 325   @ NJIT W 66-62 63%    
  Dec 21, 2022 323   Binghamton W 72-62 79%    
  Dec 30, 2022 267   Mount St. Mary's W 64-59 66%    
  Jan 01, 2023 218   Rider W 68-66 56%    
  Jan 06, 2023 222   @ Fairfield L 60-64 38%    
  Jan 08, 2023 227   @ Manhattan L 66-69 40%    
  Jan 13, 2023 244   Siena W 66-63 60%    
  Jan 15, 2023 296   Marist W 68-60 73%    
  Jan 20, 2023 218   @ Rider L 65-69 38%    
  Jan 22, 2023 145   @ St. Peter's L 58-66 27%    
  Jan 27, 2023 227   Manhattan W 69-66 58%    
  Feb 03, 2023 290   Canisius W 71-63 72%    
  Feb 05, 2023 244   @ Siena L 63-66 42%    
  Feb 10, 2023 221   Quinnipiac W 70-68 56%    
  Feb 12, 2023 101   Iona L 66-71 34%    
  Feb 17, 2023 267   @ Mount St. Mary's L 61-62 48%    
  Feb 19, 2023 296   @ Marist W 65-63 55%    
  Feb 24, 2023 222   Fairfield W 63-61 57%    
  Feb 26, 2023 145   St. Peter's L 61-63 45%    
  Mar 04, 2023 290   @ Canisius W 68-66 55%    
Projected Record 14 - 14 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.8 1.7 1.1 0.4 0.1 6.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.6 2.6 1.5 0.5 0.1 8.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 2.3 3.4 2.5 0.8 0.1 0.0 9.8 3rd
4th 0.1 0.9 3.1 3.8 2.0 0.5 0.0 10.4 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 3.5 4.0 1.7 0.3 0.0 10.7 5th
6th 0.1 1.4 3.7 3.7 1.4 0.2 10.5 6th
7th 0.2 1.6 3.9 3.7 1.2 0.1 0.0 10.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.9 3.9 3.1 0.9 0.1 10.1 8th
9th 0.1 0.6 2.0 3.2 2.4 0.6 0.1 8.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.1 2.5 1.5 0.4 0.0 7.8 10th
11th 0.2 0.7 1.2 1.5 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 5.5 11th
Total 0.2 0.7 1.5 2.5 4.0 5.5 6.9 8.4 9.0 9.4 9.4 9.2 8.4 7.1 6.0 4.5 3.4 2.2 1.1 0.4 0.1 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
18-2 95.0% 1.1    1.0 0.1
17-3 77.4% 1.7    1.3 0.4 0.0
16-4 53.4% 1.8    1.0 0.7 0.1 0.0
15-5 24.6% 1.1    0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0
14-6 8.0% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 6.9% 6.9 4.4 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 78.7% 69.9% 8.7% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 29.1%
19-1 0.4% 50.5% 46.4% 4.1% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 7.6%
18-2 1.1% 39.3% 38.6% 0.7% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 1.2%
17-3 2.2% 29.9% 29.5% 0.4% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.6 0.6%
16-4 3.4% 21.7% 21.6% 0.1% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.6 0.1%
15-5 4.5% 18.6% 18.6% 13.9 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 3.7
14-6 6.0% 12.4% 12.4% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 5.3
13-7 7.1% 9.0% 9.0% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 6.4
12-8 8.4% 7.5% 7.5% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 7.8
11-9 9.2% 4.7% 4.7% 15.4 0.1 0.1 0.2 8.8
10-10 9.4% 3.9% 3.9% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 9.1
9-11 9.4% 2.1% 2.1% 15.9 0.0 0.2 9.2
8-12 9.0% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 8.9
7-13 8.4% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 8.3
6-14 6.9% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 6.8
5-15 5.5% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 5.4
4-16 4.0% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 4.0
3-17 2.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.5
2-18 1.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.5
1-19 0.7% 0.7
0-20 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 6.4% 6.3% 0.1% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.5 1.3 1.5 93.6 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 87.5% 5.4 37.5 25.0 12.5 12.5
Lose Out 0.0%