Preseason Rankings
Stetson
Atlantic Sun
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating-7.9#292
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace65.1#263
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-3.8#285
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-4.1#297
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.9% 8.5% 1.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.5% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 13.7 15.2
.500 or above 12.5% 53.3% 11.7%
.500 or above in Conference 30.1% 67.6% 29.4%
Conference Champion 1.4% 7.5% 1.3%
Last Place in Conference 15.5% 2.4% 15.7%
First Four0.8% 0.7% 0.8%
First Round1.4% 8.0% 1.3%
Second Round0.1% 0.4% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida St. (Away) - 1.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 32 - 72 - 12
Quad 47 - 78 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 42   @ Florida St. L 59-81 2%    
  Nov 14, 2022 142   @ South Florida L 58-70 13%    
  Nov 18, 2022 218   Rider L 66-72 31%    
  Nov 19, 2022 239   Niagara L 63-68 35%    
  Nov 27, 2022 256   @ Campbell L 60-66 31%    
  Dec 04, 2022 30   @ Florida L 56-79 3%    
  Dec 14, 2022 151   @ College of Charleston L 72-84 17%    
  Dec 17, 2022 144   @ Ohio L 64-76 16%    
  Dec 21, 2022 92   @ Central Florida L 61-78 8%    
  Dec 30, 2022 225   @ Lipscomb L 70-78 26%    
  Jan 02, 2023 243   North Florida L 71-72 46%    
  Jan 05, 2023 160   Jacksonville L 60-65 34%    
  Jan 07, 2023 309   @ North Alabama L 68-70 44%    
  Jan 12, 2023 250   @ Bellarmine L 62-69 29%    
  Jan 14, 2023 219   @ Eastern Kentucky L 70-79 25%    
  Jan 19, 2023 242   Kennesaw St. L 69-70 45%    
  Jan 21, 2023 209   Jacksonville St. L 67-70 40%    
  Jan 26, 2023 100   @ Liberty L 59-75 10%    
  Jan 28, 2023 321   @ Queens L 71-72 47%    
  Feb 02, 2023 309   North Alabama W 71-67 63%    
  Feb 04, 2023 334   Central Arkansas W 79-73 70%    
  Feb 09, 2023 160   @ Jacksonville L 57-68 19%    
  Feb 11, 2023 243   @ North Florida L 68-75 28%    
  Feb 15, 2023 203   Florida Gulf Coast L 73-76 39%    
  Feb 18, 2023 203   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 70-79 23%    
  Feb 22, 2023 254   Austin Peay L 66-67 49%    
  Feb 24, 2023 225   Lipscomb L 73-75 43%    
Projected Record 8 - 19 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.4 1st
2nd 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.5 1.4 1.2 0.3 0.0 3.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 1.9 1.5 0.3 0.0 4.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.1 2.0 0.4 0.0 5.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.3 2.6 0.8 0.0 6.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.0 3.4 1.2 0.1 6.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.7 3.7 2.1 0.2 0.0 7.8 8th
9th 0.1 1.4 4.1 2.9 0.4 0.0 8.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 1.3 3.9 3.7 0.8 0.0 9.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 1.3 4.2 4.2 1.1 0.1 0.0 11.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 1.6 4.0 4.4 1.4 0.1 0.0 11.6 12th
13th 0.3 2.1 3.9 3.6 1.2 0.2 11.2 13th
14th 1.1 2.7 3.1 2.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 9.7 14th
Total 1.1 3.0 5.4 7.7 9.6 11.3 11.2 10.9 9.8 8.8 6.8 5.3 3.8 2.6 1.5 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 91.1% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-2 81.6% 0.2    0.2 0.1 0.0
15-3 52.5% 0.4    0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
14-4 27.6% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 5.9% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.4% 1.4 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 46.3% 29.9% 16.4% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 23.4%
17-1 0.1% 32.1% 27.8% 4.2% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 5.8%
16-2 0.3% 22.1% 22.1% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
15-3 0.9% 20.0% 19.7% 0.3% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.4%
14-4 1.5% 10.8% 10.8% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.3
13-5 2.6% 8.5% 8.5% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.4
12-6 3.8% 6.5% 6.5% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 3.6
11-7 5.3% 4.9% 4.9% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 5.1
10-8 6.8% 2.8% 2.8% 15.9 0.0 0.2 6.6
9-9 8.8% 1.6% 1.6% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 8.6
8-10 9.8% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.1 9.7
7-11 10.9% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 10.7
6-12 11.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 11.2
5-13 11.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 11.2
4-14 9.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 9.6
3-15 7.7% 7.7
2-16 5.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 5.4
1-17 3.0% 3.0
0-18 1.1% 1.1
Total 100% 1.9% 1.8% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.9 98.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.8%