Preseason Rankings
North Florida
Atlantic Sun
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating-3.5#243
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace70.1#115
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-0.6#199
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-2.8#265
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.6% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.6% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.8% 17.1% 5.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 2.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.4 11.9 14.5
.500 or above 44.7% 89.6% 44.5%
.500 or above in Conference 57.4% 88.9% 57.3%
Conference Champion 6.4% 29.6% 6.3%
Last Place in Conference 5.0% 0.0% 5.0%
First Four1.1% 0.6% 1.1%
First Round5.3% 16.5% 5.2%
Second Round0.4% 2.6% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 1.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Gonzaga (Away) - 0.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 4
Quad 20 - 20 - 6
Quad 32 - 52 - 11
Quad 410 - 513 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 1   @ Gonzaga L 68-96 0.4%   
  Nov 11, 2022 89   @ Washington L 69-82 12%    
  Nov 19, 2022 356   South Carolina St. W 86-68 94%    
  Nov 21, 2022 178   @ Duquesne L 69-75 30%    
  Nov 23, 2022 3   @ Kentucky L 63-88 2%    
  Dec 03, 2022 255   @ High Point L 71-73 44%    
  Dec 06, 2022 5   @ Houston L 56-81 2%    
  Dec 10, 2022 353   Bethune-Cookman W 79-63 90%    
  Dec 17, 2022 109   @ Pittsburgh L 64-75 19%    
  Dec 22, 2022 353   @ Bethune-Cookman W 76-66 79%    
  Dec 31, 2022 254   Austin Peay W 71-67 63%    
  Jan 02, 2023 292   @ Stetson W 72-71 54%    
  Jan 05, 2023 242   Kennesaw St. W 75-72 59%    
  Jan 07, 2023 203   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 76-81 34%    
  Jan 12, 2023 209   @ Jacksonville St. L 69-74 35%    
  Jan 14, 2023 242   @ Kennesaw St. L 72-75 41%    
  Jan 19, 2023 321   Queens W 79-70 77%    
  Jan 21, 2023 100   Liberty L 67-73 32%    
  Jan 26, 2023 334   @ Central Arkansas W 82-77 65%    
  Jan 28, 2023 309   @ North Alabama W 74-72 58%    
  Feb 02, 2023 160   @ Jacksonville L 62-69 30%    
  Feb 04, 2023 160   Jacksonville L 65-66 47%    
  Feb 09, 2023 203   Florida Gulf Coast W 79-78 53%    
  Feb 11, 2023 292   Stetson W 75-68 72%    
  Feb 16, 2023 225   @ Lipscomb L 75-79 38%    
  Feb 18, 2023 254   @ Austin Peay L 68-70 44%    
  Feb 22, 2023 219   Eastern Kentucky W 80-78 56%    
  Feb 24, 2023 250   Bellarmine W 71-68 61%    
Projected Record 13 - 15 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.2 1.9 1.7 0.8 0.3 6.4 1st
2nd 0.1 0.8 2.5 2.6 1.6 0.4 0.0 7.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.0 3.2 2.9 1.1 0.1 0.0 8.4 3rd
4th 0.1 0.9 3.3 3.2 1.0 0.1 0.0 8.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 3.1 3.7 1.1 0.1 8.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.6 4.1 1.4 0.1 8.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.1 4.1 1.8 0.2 8.4 7th
8th 0.1 1.4 3.9 2.4 0.4 0.0 8.1 8th
9th 0.1 1.1 3.5 2.8 0.5 0.0 7.9 9th
10th 0.1 0.7 2.8 3.2 0.8 0.0 7.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.6 2.3 2.8 0.9 0.1 6.7 11th
12th 0.1 0.6 1.9 2.2 0.8 0.1 5.7 12th
13th 0.1 0.6 1.5 1.6 0.7 0.1 4.5 13th
14th 0.2 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.1 2.7 14th
Total 0.2 0.7 1.6 2.7 4.4 6.1 7.6 9.2 10.0 10.3 10.4 9.8 8.4 7.0 4.9 3.6 2.0 0.8 0.3 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 97.9% 0.8    0.7 0.1
16-2 81.3% 1.7    1.2 0.4 0.0
15-3 53.7% 1.9    1.0 0.8 0.2 0.0
14-4 24.3% 1.2    0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-5 6.3% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 6.4% 6.4 3.5 2.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 52.9% 51.0% 1.9% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 3.9%
17-1 0.8% 38.6% 37.7% 0.9% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.4%
16-2 2.0% 29.3% 29.3% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.4
15-3 3.6% 20.8% 20.7% 0.1% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.9 0.1%
14-4 4.9% 16.5% 16.5% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 4.1
13-5 7.0% 11.2% 11.2% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 6.2
12-6 8.4% 8.3% 8.3% 14.9 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 7.7
11-7 9.8% 5.6% 5.6% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 9.3
10-8 10.4% 4.2% 4.2% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 9.9
9-9 10.3% 2.6% 2.6% 15.9 0.0 0.3 10.0
8-10 10.0% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.2 9.8
7-11 9.2% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 9.1
6-12 7.6% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 7.6
5-13 6.1% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 6.1
4-14 4.4% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 4.4
3-15 2.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 2.7
2-16 1.6% 1.6
1-17 0.7% 0.7
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 5.8% 5.8% 0.0% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.4 1.4 1.6 94.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%