Preseason Rankings
Jacksonville St.
Atlantic Sun
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating-1.6#209
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace64.2#288
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+0.0#179
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-1.6#226
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.0% 12.7% 5.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.5 14.6
.500 or above 56.6% 73.7% 41.5%
.500 or above in Conference 67.8% 78.8% 58.1%
Conference Champion 9.5% 14.2% 5.4%
Last Place in Conference 2.7% 1.1% 4.1%
First Four1.3% 1.1% 1.4%
First Round8.4% 12.2% 5.2%
Second Round1.0% 1.6% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Illinois-Chicago (Away) - 46.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 21 - 4
Quad 33 - 54 - 9
Quad 411 - 414 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 14, 2022 247   @ Illinois-Chicago L 71-72 47%    
  Nov 18, 2022 22   @ Alabama L 67-85 5%    
  Nov 22, 2022 302   Elon W 72-62 80%    
  Nov 25, 2022 110   @ New Mexico L 72-81 23%    
  Nov 26, 2022 213   Northern Colorado W 75-74 51%    
  Nov 27, 2022 216   North Dakota St. W 69-68 51%    
  Dec 03, 2022 189   @ East Tennessee St. L 67-71 37%    
  Dec 08, 2022 84   @ Utah L 63-75 16%    
  Dec 17, 2022 261   Arkansas Little Rock W 73-66 71%    
  Dec 21, 2022 205   @ South Alabama L 66-69 40%    
  Dec 30, 2022 309   North Alabama W 75-65 80%    
  Jan 02, 2023 160   @ Jacksonville L 60-65 34%    
  Jan 05, 2023 100   @ Liberty L 62-72 21%    
  Jan 07, 2023 250   Bellarmine W 69-64 67%    
  Jan 12, 2023 243   North Florida W 74-69 65%    
  Jan 14, 2023 160   Jacksonville W 63-62 53%    
  Jan 19, 2023 203   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 73-76 40%    
  Jan 21, 2023 292   @ Stetson W 70-67 60%    
  Jan 26, 2023 225   Lipscomb W 76-72 63%    
  Jan 28, 2023 254   Austin Peay W 69-63 68%    
  Feb 02, 2023 219   @ Eastern Kentucky L 74-76 43%    
  Feb 04, 2023 250   @ Bellarmine L 66-67 48%    
  Feb 09, 2023 242   Kennesaw St. W 72-67 65%    
  Feb 11, 2023 242   @ Kennesaw St. L 69-70 46%    
  Feb 16, 2023 321   Queens W 77-66 81%    
  Feb 18, 2023 100   Liberty L 65-69 38%    
  Feb 22, 2023 334   @ Central Arkansas W 79-72 70%    
  Feb 24, 2023 309   @ North Alabama W 72-68 64%    
Projected Record 14 - 14 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 1.7 2.9 2.6 1.3 0.4 9.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.1 3.6 1.9 0.4 0.0 10.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.1 3.8 3.9 1.5 0.2 0.0 10.6 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 3.6 4.0 1.3 0.1 10.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 3.3 4.2 1.2 0.1 9.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.6 4.2 1.6 0.1 8.9 6th
7th 0.2 1.7 4.1 2.1 0.2 8.3 7th
8th 0.1 1.2 3.5 2.4 0.3 0.0 7.5 8th
9th 0.1 0.9 2.9 2.6 0.5 0.0 7.0 9th
10th 0.1 0.5 2.2 2.3 0.6 0.0 5.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.6 2.1 0.8 0.0 5.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 3.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.0 0.5 0.1 2.8 13th
14th 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.4 14th
Total 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 2.8 4.3 6.0 7.5 8.9 10.2 11.0 10.8 10.1 8.9 6.9 5.0 3.0 1.3 0.4 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-1 99.3% 1.3    1.2 0.1
16-2 87.2% 2.6    2.0 0.6 0.0
15-3 58.1% 2.9    1.4 1.2 0.2 0.0
14-4 24.7% 1.7    0.5 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-5 5.8% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.5% 9.5 5.6 2.8 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.4% 65.6% 56.0% 9.7% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 21.9%
17-1 1.3% 49.1% 45.9% 3.2% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.7 6.0%
16-2 3.0% 33.9% 33.0% 0.8% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 2.0 1.2%
15-3 5.0% 27.4% 27.3% 0.2% 13.2 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 3.6 0.2%
14-4 6.9% 19.6% 19.6% 0.0% 13.7 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 5.6 0.0%
13-5 8.9% 13.3% 13.3% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 7.7
12-6 10.1% 9.6% 9.6% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 9.2
11-7 10.8% 7.3% 7.3% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 10.1
10-8 11.0% 5.3% 5.3% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 10.4
9-9 10.2% 3.4% 3.4% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 9.9
8-10 8.9% 2.8% 2.8% 15.9 0.0 0.2 8.6
7-11 7.5% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.1 7.4
6-12 6.0% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 5.9
5-13 4.3% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 4.2
4-14 2.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 2.8
3-15 1.6% 1.6
2-16 0.8% 0.8
1-17 0.3% 0.3
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 9.0% 8.9% 0.1% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 1.8 2.0 1.7 1.8 91.0 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 4.7 42.3 38.5 19.2
Lose Out 0.0%