Preseason Rankings
Alabama
Southeastern
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+13.8#22
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace78.3#11
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+9.2#10
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+4.7#61
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.9% 2.1% 0.1%
#1 Seed 7.6% 8.1% 1.0%
Top 2 Seed 15.8% 16.8% 2.4%
Top 4 Seed 30.7% 32.3% 7.7%
Top 6 Seed 43.9% 46.1% 13.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 65.3% 67.8% 30.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 62.0% 64.6% 27.4%
Average Seed 5.3 5.2 7.0
.500 or above 75.5% 78.1% 38.6%
.500 or above in Conference 68.0% 70.1% 38.7%
Conference Champion 9.5% 10.0% 2.0%
Last Place in Conference 3.1% 2.6% 10.3%
First Four4.2% 4.3% 4.0%
First Round63.4% 65.9% 28.6%
Second Round46.9% 48.9% 18.1%
Sweet Sixteen26.0% 27.3% 8.3%
Elite Eight13.2% 13.8% 3.7%
Final Four6.3% 6.6% 1.6%
Championship Game3.0% 3.2% 0.6%
National Champion1.4% 1.4% 0.2%

Next Game: Longwood (Home) - 93.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 62 - 6
Quad 1b2 - 25 - 8
Quad 25 - 29 - 10
Quad 35 - 114 - 11
Quad 44 - 018 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 152   Longwood W 85-69 93%    
  Nov 11, 2022 100   Liberty W 81-69 86%    
  Nov 15, 2022 205   @ South Alabama W 82-70 86%    
  Nov 18, 2022 209   Jacksonville St. W 85-67 95%    
  Nov 24, 2022 25   Michigan St. W 80-79 51%    
  Dec 03, 2022 134   South Dakota St. W 93-78 89%    
  Dec 10, 2022 5   @ Houston L 69-76 27%    
  Dec 13, 2022 35   Memphis W 83-78 66%    
  Dec 16, 2022 1   Gonzaga L 85-92 27%    
  Dec 20, 2022 308   Jackson St. W 84-58 98%    
  Dec 28, 2022 64   @ Mississippi St. W 77-75 56%    
  Jan 03, 2023 58   Mississippi W 79-72 72%    
  Jan 07, 2023 3   @ Kentucky L 77-85 27%    
  Jan 11, 2023 11   @ Arkansas L 79-85 33%    
  Jan 14, 2023 47   LSU W 83-77 69%    
  Jan 17, 2023 72   @ Vanderbilt W 80-77 58%    
  Jan 21, 2023 70   @ Missouri W 79-76 59%    
  Jan 25, 2023 64   Mississippi St. W 80-72 74%    
  Jan 28, 2023 33   @ Oklahoma L 75-76 46%    
  Jan 31, 2023 72   Vanderbilt W 83-74 75%    
  Feb 04, 2023 47   @ LSU W 80-79 51%    
  Feb 08, 2023 30   Florida W 78-74 64%    
  Feb 11, 2023 21   @ Auburn L 81-84 40%    
  Feb 15, 2023 10   @ Tennessee L 74-80 32%    
  Feb 18, 2023 106   Georgia W 89-77 83%    
  Feb 22, 2023 87   @ South Carolina W 83-79 63%    
  Feb 25, 2023 11   Arkansas W 82-81 50%    
  Mar 01, 2023 21   Auburn W 84-81 59%    
  Mar 04, 2023 39   @ Texas A&M L 76-77 47%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 1.7 2.8 2.5 1.4 0.4 9.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.2 3.6 2.1 0.5 0.0 10.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.2 3.5 3.8 1.5 0.2 0.0 10.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 3.8 4.0 1.3 0.2 10.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 3.4 4.1 1.5 0.1 9.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.9 4.1 1.6 0.1 9.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.1 1.9 0.2 0.0 8.3 7th
8th 0.1 1.3 3.5 2.1 0.3 0.0 7.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 2.8 2.5 0.4 0.0 6.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 2.1 2.3 0.6 0.0 5.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.1 0.7 0.0 4.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 3.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.8 13th
14th 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 1.6 14th
Total 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.6 2.9 4.3 5.8 7.4 8.8 10.2 10.8 10.9 10.2 9.0 7.0 5.1 3.0 1.4 0.4 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-1 98.6% 1.4    1.3 0.1
16-2 83.1% 2.5    1.8 0.7 0.0
15-3 54.9% 2.8    1.4 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0
14-4 24.5% 1.7    0.5 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-5 6.3% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.5% 9.5 5.4 2.9 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.4% 100.0% 36.2% 63.8% 1.1 0.3 0.0 100.0%
17-1 1.4% 100.0% 28.1% 71.9% 1.2 1.1 0.3 0.0 100.0%
16-2 3.0% 100.0% 22.9% 77.1% 1.5 1.9 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 5.1% 100.0% 20.5% 79.5% 1.9 2.1 1.9 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 7.0% 100.0% 17.0% 82.9% 2.6 1.4 2.3 1.7 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 9.0% 99.9% 12.0% 87.8% 3.7 0.6 1.7 2.2 2.0 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.8%
12-6 10.2% 98.6% 10.4% 88.2% 4.8 0.2 0.8 1.6 2.2 1.9 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 98.5%
11-7 10.9% 94.6% 7.4% 87.2% 6.1 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.4 1.9 1.9 1.5 1.1 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 94.1%
10-8 10.8% 83.1% 7.8% 75.2% 7.5 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.8 81.6%
9-9 10.2% 59.4% 4.8% 54.5% 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.1 57.3%
8-10 8.8% 31.4% 4.6% 26.9% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 6.1 28.1%
7-11 7.4% 11.9% 3.4% 8.6% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 6.6 8.9%
6-12 5.8% 3.2% 1.8% 1.4% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 5.6 1.4%
5-13 4.3% 2.2% 2.0% 0.2% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 4.2 0.2%
4-14 2.9% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.1 2.8
3-15 1.6% 1.1% 1.1% 15.9 0.0 0.0 1.6
2-16 0.8% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 0.8
1-17 0.3% 0.3
0-18 0.0% 5.8% 5.8% 16.0 0.0 0.0
Total 100% 65.3% 8.7% 56.7% 5.3 7.6 8.2 7.5 7.4 6.9 6.3 5.1 4.2 3.7 3.2 3.3 1.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 34.7 62.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.0 95.2 4.8