Preseason Rankings
South Dakota St.
Summit League
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+2.2#134
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace73.3#56
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+5.0#57
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-2.7#260
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.3% 0.8% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 25.1% 35.0% 20.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.6% 1.9% 0.1%
Average Seed 13.2 12.5 13.8
.500 or above 76.6% 91.9% 68.8%
.500 or above in Conference 93.7% 97.9% 91.5%
Conference Champion 30.5% 42.6% 24.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four1.6% 1.2% 1.8%
First Round24.4% 34.5% 19.2%
Second Round4.0% 7.4% 2.2%
Sweet Sixteen1.0% 2.1% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Akron (Away) - 33.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 21 - 5
Quad 34 - 44 - 9
Quad 413 - 318 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 119   @ Akron L 69-73 34%    
  Nov 09, 2022 77   @ Boise St. L 69-78 21%    
  Nov 15, 2022 103   St. Bonaventure L 74-77 41%    
  Nov 16, 2022 11   @ Arkansas L 72-89 7%    
  Nov 19, 2022 166   Stephen F. Austin W 81-76 67%    
  Nov 25, 2022 212   Valparaiso W 77-73 63%    
  Nov 26, 2022 162   James Madison W 83-81 56%    
  Dec 01, 2022 120   @ Kent St. L 74-78 36%    
  Dec 03, 2022 22   @ Alabama L 78-93 11%    
  Dec 06, 2022 170   @ Montana L 74-75 47%    
  Dec 10, 2022 185   Eastern Washington W 85-79 68%    
  Dec 19, 2022 122   @ Oral Roberts L 84-88 36%    
  Dec 21, 2022 289   @ UMKC W 80-73 71%    
  Dec 29, 2022 288   Western Illinois W 89-76 85%    
  Dec 31, 2022 357   St. Thomas W 88-64 97%    
  Jan 05, 2023 216   @ North Dakota St. W 77-76 54%    
  Jan 07, 2023 322   @ North Dakota W 84-75 77%    
  Jan 14, 2023 135   @ South Dakota L 77-80 41%    
  Jan 19, 2023 307   Nebraska Omaha W 90-76 86%    
  Jan 21, 2023 346   Denver W 86-68 93%    
  Jan 26, 2023 357   @ St. Thomas W 85-67 92%    
  Jan 28, 2023 288   @ Western Illinois W 86-79 70%    
  Feb 02, 2023 322   North Dakota W 87-72 88%    
  Feb 04, 2023 216   North Dakota St. W 80-73 71%    
  Feb 11, 2023 135   South Dakota W 80-77 60%    
  Feb 16, 2023 346   @ Denver W 83-71 83%    
  Feb 18, 2023 307   @ Nebraska Omaha W 87-79 73%    
  Feb 23, 2023 289   UMKC W 83-70 85%    
  Feb 25, 2023 122   Oral Roberts W 87-85 55%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 2.9 6.7 9.5 7.6 3.2 30.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.6 5.5 8.6 6.5 1.9 24.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 2.6 6.1 6.1 2.9 0.3 18.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.9 4.4 3.1 0.9 0.0 12.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.2 2.7 1.3 0.2 7.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 1.2 0.4 0.0 3.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.7 2.9 4.4 6.5 8.6 11.1 13.2 14.5 13.5 11.3 7.6 3.2 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 3.2    3.2
17-1 100.0% 7.6    7.0 0.6
16-2 83.5% 9.5    6.9 2.5 0.1
15-3 49.9% 6.7    3.2 3.0 0.5 0.0
14-4 20.3% 2.9    0.9 1.4 0.6 0.1
13-5 4.8% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 30.5% 30.5 21.2 7.8 1.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 3.2% 76.1% 69.8% 6.3% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.8 21.0%
17-1 7.6% 59.3% 56.9% 2.4% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.6 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 3.1 5.6%
16-2 11.3% 44.8% 44.2% 0.6% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.8 1.1 0.3 0.0 6.2 1.2%
15-3 13.5% 33.6% 33.5% 0.1% 13.5 0.1 0.8 1.5 1.4 0.6 0.1 9.0 0.2%
14-4 14.5% 24.1% 24.0% 0.0% 14.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.2 0.9 0.2 11.0 0.1%
13-5 13.2% 17.5% 17.4% 0.0% 14.4 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.4 10.9 0.0%
12-6 11.1% 12.4% 12.4% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 9.7
11-7 8.6% 8.3% 8.3% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 7.8
10-8 6.5% 5.9% 5.9% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 6.1
9-9 4.4% 4.2% 4.2% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 4.2
8-10 2.9% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.0 0.1 2.8
7-11 1.7% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.0 1.6
6-12 0.9% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 0.9
5-13 0.4% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 0.4
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 25.1% 24.6% 0.5% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 1.8 4.8 6.2 5.2 3.6 2.3 74.9 0.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 2.9 4.7 29.9 42.1 18.7 4.7