Preseason Rankings
Stephen F. Austin
Western Athletic
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+0.1#166
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace71.9#77
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-0.8#205
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.9#147
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.1% 10.9% 4.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.7% 0.9% 0.1%
Average Seed 13.1 12.9 14.3
.500 or above 63.2% 72.7% 39.1%
.500 or above in Conference 60.7% 67.6% 43.2%
Conference Champion 9.8% 12.2% 4.0%
Last Place in Conference 5.4% 3.6% 10.1%
First Four1.1% 1.1% 1.1%
First Round8.5% 10.4% 3.9%
Second Round1.3% 1.6% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Gardner-Webb (Home) - 71.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 34 - 65 - 10
Quad 410 - 315 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2022 237   Gardner-Webb W 73-67 72%    
  Nov 15, 2022 350   Alcorn St. W 81-63 94%    
  Nov 19, 2022 134   @ South Dakota St. L 76-81 33%    
  Nov 25, 2022 221   Quinnipiac W 76-74 58%    
  Nov 26, 2022 137   Middle Tennessee L 70-72 43%    
  Nov 27, 2022 139   UNC Greensboro L 64-66 44%    
  Dec 01, 2022 338   Northwestern St. W 85-70 89%    
  Dec 14, 2022 121   @ Louisiana Tech L 70-76 30%    
  Dec 17, 2022 96   @ Furman L 67-76 24%    
  Dec 22, 2022 308   Jackson St. W 71-59 83%    
  Dec 29, 2022 147   Abilene Christian W 76-74 55%    
  Dec 31, 2022 248   @ Texas Arlington W 69-68 53%    
  Jan 04, 2023 111   New Mexico St. L 70-71 47%    
  Jan 07, 2023 116   Grand Canyon L 69-70 48%    
  Jan 12, 2023 253   @ Utah Tech W 64-62 55%    
  Jan 14, 2023 177   @ Southern Utah L 74-77 42%    
  Jan 19, 2023 175   @ Sam Houston St. L 66-69 42%    
  Jan 25, 2023 303   UT Rio Grande Valley W 81-70 82%    
  Jan 28, 2023 173   Seattle W 76-73 60%    
  Feb 02, 2023 111   @ New Mexico St. L 67-74 29%    
  Feb 04, 2023 116   @ Grand Canyon L 66-73 30%    
  Feb 11, 2023 303   @ UT Rio Grande Valley W 78-73 67%    
  Feb 15, 2023 245   Tarleton St. W 69-62 70%    
  Feb 18, 2023 248   Texas Arlington W 72-65 70%    
  Feb 22, 2023 147   @ Abilene Christian L 73-77 37%    
  Feb 26, 2023 193   California Baptist W 74-70 62%    
  Mar 01, 2023 175   Sam Houston St. W 69-66 60%    
  Mar 03, 2023 156   @ Utah Valley L 68-72 39%    
Projected Record 15 - 13 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.3 2.7 2.1 1.1 0.3 9.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.7 3.4 2.8 1.0 0.2 0.0 9.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.1 2.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 9.4 3rd
4th 0.1 1.9 4.1 2.6 0.5 0.0 9.2 4th
5th 0.1 1.4 4.4 3.0 0.5 0.0 9.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 3.6 3.3 0.6 0.0 8.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 3.2 3.7 0.9 0.0 8.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.5 3.9 1.3 0.1 8.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.8 3.4 1.6 0.1 0.0 7.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.0 1.8 0.2 0.0 6.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.5 1.7 0.3 0.0 6.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.8 1.1 0.2 0.0 4.7 12th
13th 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.1 13th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.4 3.9 5.5 7.1 8.6 9.9 10.2 10.8 9.9 9.0 7.4 5.7 3.8 2.3 1.2 0.3 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 99.6% 1.1    1.1 0.1
16-2 91.6% 2.1    1.8 0.3 0.0
15-3 71.8% 2.7    1.6 1.0 0.1 0.0
14-4 39.7% 2.3    0.9 0.9 0.4 0.1
13-5 14.5% 1.1    0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.8% 9.8 6.0 2.8 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 85.3% 54.2% 31.2% 7.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 68.0%
17-1 1.2% 59.1% 42.0% 17.1% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 29.5%
16-2 2.3% 40.1% 31.5% 8.6% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 1.4 12.6%
15-3 3.8% 29.9% 27.5% 2.5% 12.3 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.7 3.4%
14-4 5.7% 20.5% 20.2% 0.3% 12.8 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 4.6 0.4%
13-5 7.4% 15.2% 15.0% 0.1% 13.3 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 6.3 0.2%
12-6 9.0% 12.4% 12.4% 0.1% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.0 7.9 0.1%
11-7 9.9% 8.3% 8.3% 14.2 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 9.1
10-8 10.8% 6.7% 6.7% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 10.1
9-9 10.2% 4.3% 4.3% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 9.8
8-10 9.9% 2.8% 2.8% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 9.6
7-11 8.6% 2.0% 2.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 8.4
6-12 7.1% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.1 7.0
5-13 5.5% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 5.4
4-14 3.9% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 3.8
3-15 2.4% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 2.4
2-16 1.3% 1.3
1-17 0.5% 0.5
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 9.1% 8.5% 0.6% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.7 2.0 1.7 1.1 1.1 90.9 0.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 4.3 6.2 6.2 15.4 35.2 12.3 18.5 3.1 3.1