Preseason Rankings
Western Athletic
2022-23


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
111 New Mexico St. 21.2%   13   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 11 11 - 7 +3.9      +1.2 154 +2.7 105 66.2 239 0.0 1 0.0 1
116 Grand Canyon 19.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 10 11 - 7 +3.7      +1.5 144 +2.2 116 64.5 281 0.0 1 0.0 1
147 Abilene Christian 12.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 12 10 - 8 +1.4      +0.5 172 +0.9 146 74.7 37 0.0 1 0.0 1
156 Utah Valley 10.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 13 10 - 8 +0.7      0.0 181 +0.7 153 65.4 260 0.0 1 0.0 1
166 Stephen F. Austin 9.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 13 9 - 9 +0.1      -0.8 205 +0.9 147 71.9 77 0.0 1 0.0 1
173 Seattle 8.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 13 9 - 9 -0.2      -1.2 220 +1.0 145 74.8 36 0.0 1 0.0 1
175 Sam Houston St. 8.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 14 10 - 8 -0.3      -2.3 250 +2.0 120 63.5 312 0.0 1 0.0 1
177 Southern Utah 8.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 13 9 - 9 -0.3      +2.3 115 -2.7 257 70.5 106 0.0 1 0.0 1
193 California Baptist 7.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 14 9 - 9 -0.9      -0.3 190 -0.5 189 68.7 158 0.0 1 0.0 1
245 Tarleton St. 0.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 16 8 - 10 -3.6      -3.8 286 +0.2 167 60.4 348 0.0 1 0.0 1
248 Texas Arlington 3.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 17 8 - 10 -3.8      -3.3 277 -0.5 187 64.5 278 0.0 1 0.0 1
253 Utah Tech 0.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 17 7 - 11 -4.4      -15.3 363 +10.8 1 77.6 17 0.0 1 0.0 1
303 UT Rio Grande Valley 1.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 18 5 - 13 -8.4      -5.7 321 -2.7 259 78.0 14 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th
New Mexico St. 4.4 22.3 15.0 12.2 9.9 8.6 7.2 6.1 5.4 4.4 3.5 2.7 1.9 0.8
Grand Canyon 4.4 21.7 15.1 12.2 10.0 8.6 7.4 6.3 5.3 4.4 3.7 2.6 1.9 1.0
Abilene Christian 5.6 13.2 11.1 10.0 9.5 9.2 8.5 8.0 7.2 6.8 5.6 4.9 3.8 2.2
Utah Valley 5.6 12.4 11.4 10.4 9.5 9.2 8.4 7.7 7.0 6.6 5.6 5.0 4.2 2.5
Stephen F. Austin 6.1 9.8 9.4 9.4 9.2 9.4 8.5 8.3 8.1 7.2 6.8 6.0 4.7 3.1
Seattle 6.3 9.4 8.7 9.2 8.8 8.8 8.5 8.4 8.0 7.7 7.0 6.4 5.3 3.7
Sam Houston St. 6.0 10.0 10.0 9.9 9.5 9.0 8.8 8.0 7.7 7.3 6.4 5.7 4.6 3.1
Southern Utah 6.3 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.2 9.0 8.6 8.3 8.0 7.4 7.2 6.6 5.4 3.5
California Baptist 6.7 7.1 8.0 8.2 8.4 8.4 8.6 8.4 8.3 8.5 7.9 7.5 6.0 4.6
Tarleton St. 7.8 4.0 5.1 6.0 6.4 7.0 7.7 8.1 8.5 9.3 9.8 9.8 9.7 8.6
Texas Arlington 8.0 3.4 4.6 5.5 6.2 6.8 7.6 8.4 8.9 9.3 9.7 10.3 10.4 8.7
Utah Tech 8.4 2.6 3.7 4.6 5.5 6.1 6.8 7.6 8.8 9.4 10.4 11.2 12.3 11.2
UT Rio Grande Valley 10.2 0.6 1.2 1.7 2.4 3.1 4.1 5.1 6.3 7.7 9.9 12.9 17.8 27.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
New Mexico St. 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.5 2.3 3.6 5.1 6.5 8.2 9.6 10.6 11.0 10.9 10.0 8.3 6.1 3.7 1.4
Grand Canyon 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.5 2.4 3.6 5.1 7.0 8.3 9.5 10.6 11.2 10.6 10.2 8.1 6.0 3.5 1.3
Abilene Christian 10 - 8 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.8 3.1 4.5 5.9 7.7 9.0 10.2 10.5 10.4 9.6 8.6 6.9 5.3 3.2 1.7 0.5
Utah Valley 10 - 8 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.0 3.2 4.5 6.1 7.6 8.7 9.9 10.4 10.4 9.5 8.5 6.9 5.1 3.4 1.6 0.6
Stephen F. Austin 9 - 9 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.4 3.9 5.5 7.1 8.6 9.9 10.2 10.8 9.9 9.0 7.4 5.7 3.8 2.3 1.2 0.3
Seattle 9 - 9 0.2 0.7 1.5 2.9 4.2 5.7 7.6 8.9 9.8 10.1 10.3 9.9 8.5 7.0 5.3 3.7 2.2 1.1 0.3
Sam Houston St. 10 - 8 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.3 3.6 5.2 6.7 8.6 9.5 10.3 10.5 10.1 9.2 7.7 6.0 4.3 2.6 1.2 0.3
Southern Utah 9 - 9 0.1 0.6 1.6 2.7 4.3 5.9 7.5 8.9 9.6 10.2 10.7 9.4 8.8 7.1 5.3 3.7 2.1 1.0 0.3
California Baptist 9 - 9 0.2 0.8 2.0 3.4 4.9 6.8 8.5 9.4 10.5 10.3 10.0 9.2 7.9 6.4 4.4 3.0 1.5 0.7 0.2
Tarleton St. 8 - 10 0.6 1.8 3.6 5.5 7.6 9.2 10.0 10.8 10.1 9.7 8.4 7.0 5.7 4.2 2.7 1.7 0.9 0.4 0.1
Texas Arlington 8 - 10 0.6 2.0 3.7 5.9 7.7 9.3 10.7 10.8 10.5 9.9 8.2 7.0 5.2 3.9 2.3 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.0
Utah Tech 7 - 11 0.9 2.6 4.6 7.3 9.1 10.3 10.8 10.7 10.3 8.8 7.5 5.9 4.4 2.9 2.0 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.0
UT Rio Grande Valley 5 - 13 3.4 7.6 10.6 12.1 12.6 11.9 10.6 8.9 7.1 5.4 3.8 2.5 1.6 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
New Mexico St. 22.3% 15.2 5.4 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
Grand Canyon 21.7% 14.7 5.2 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
Abilene Christian 13.2% 8.4 3.5 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Utah Valley 12.4% 8.0 3.3 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0
Stephen F. Austin 9.8% 6.0 2.8 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
Seattle 9.4% 5.7 2.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Sam Houston St. 10.0% 5.9 3.0 0.9 0.2 0.1
Southern Utah 9.0% 5.3 2.7 0.8 0.2 0.0
California Baptist 7.1% 4.1 2.2 0.6 0.2 0.0
Tarleton St. 4.0% 2.2 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Texas Arlington 3.4% 1.8 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Utah Tech 2.6% 1.4 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
UT Rio Grande Valley 0.6% 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
New Mexico St. 21.2% 18.2% 3.0% 13   0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.8 1.3 3.4 5.1 3.7 2.0 1.5 1.3 78.8 3.6%
Grand Canyon 19.3% 17.2% 2.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 1.1 2.9 4.7 3.9 2.4 1.3 0.9 80.7 2.6%
Abilene Christian 12.2% 11.3% 0.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.2 2.6 2.5 2.1 1.4 1.3 87.8 1.0%
Utah Valley 10.4% 9.7% 0.7% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.0 2.0 2.1 1.7 1.4 1.4 89.6 0.7%
Stephen F. Austin 9.1% 8.5% 0.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.7 2.0 1.7 1.1 1.1 90.9 0.7%
Seattle 8.5% 8.0% 0.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.4 1.8 1.6 1.3 1.3 91.5 0.5%
Sam Houston St. 8.1% 7.8% 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.5 91.9 0.4%
Southern Utah 8.2% 7.7% 0.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.5 1.7 1.4 1.2 1.3 91.8 0.5%
California Baptist 7.1% 6.7% 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.5 1.4 1.1 1.1 92.9 0.4%
Tarleton St. 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%
Texas Arlington 3.7% 3.6% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.7 1.3 96.3 0.1%
Utah Tech 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.8 0.0%
UT Rio Grande Valley 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 99.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
New Mexico St. 21.2% 2.3% 20.1% 5.1% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Grand Canyon 19.3% 1.6% 18.6% 4.5% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Abilene Christian 12.2% 1.3% 11.5% 2.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Utah Valley 10.4% 1.4% 9.9% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stephen F. Austin 9.1% 1.1% 8.5% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Seattle 8.5% 1.1% 8.0% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sam Houston St. 8.1% 1.4% 7.6% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Utah 8.2% 1.3% 7.6% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
California Baptist 7.1% 1.0% 6.7% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tarleton St. 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas Arlington 3.7% 1.1% 3.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Utah Tech 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UT Rio Grande Valley 1.0% 0.4% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.1 91.2 8.5 0.3 0.0
1st Round 96.2% 1.0 3.8 89.8 6.2 0.2 0.0
2nd Round 18.9% 0.2 81.1 18.5 0.4 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 5.2% 0.1 94.8 5.2 0.0
Elite Eight 1.2% 0.0 98.8 1.2 0.0
Final Four 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Final Game 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0