Preseason Rankings
Sam Houston St.
Western Athletic
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating-0.3#175
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace63.5#312
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-2.3#250
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.0#120
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.8% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.1% 19.3% 7.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.4% 2.4% 0.3%
Average Seed 13.5 12.1 13.8
.500 or above 47.8% 81.5% 45.2%
.500 or above in Conference 62.3% 85.4% 60.5%
Conference Champion 10.0% 23.8% 8.9%
Last Place in Conference 5.4% 0.9% 5.7%
First Four1.4% 1.7% 1.4%
First Round7.6% 18.3% 6.7%
Second Round1.0% 3.9% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 1.3% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.3% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Oklahoma (Away) - 7.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 31 - 6
Quad 34 - 54 - 11
Quad 48 - 312 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 33   @ Oklahoma L 57-72 7%    
  Nov 17, 2022 84   @ Utah L 61-71 18%    
  Nov 22, 2022 294   Northern Illinois W 69-61 74%    
  Nov 28, 2022 126   @ Nevada L 68-74 29%    
  Dec 06, 2022 38   @ Oklahoma St. L 58-73 11%    
  Dec 14, 2022 259   @ Louisiana Monroe W 69-67 56%    
  Dec 17, 2022 168   @ Texas St. L 61-64 39%    
  Dec 22, 2022 131   @ Missouri St. L 65-71 32%    
  Dec 29, 2022 156   @ Utah Valley L 63-67 37%    
  Dec 31, 2022 111   @ New Mexico St. L 61-68 28%    
  Jan 05, 2023 116   Grand Canyon L 64-65 47%    
  Jan 07, 2023 245   Tarleton St. W 64-58 69%    
  Jan 12, 2023 177   @ Southern Utah L 68-71 41%    
  Jan 14, 2023 253   @ Utah Tech W 58-57 54%    
  Jan 19, 2023 166   Stephen F. Austin W 69-66 58%    
  Jan 21, 2023 303   UT Rio Grande Valley W 75-64 81%    
  Jan 26, 2023 173   Seattle W 70-67 59%    
  Feb 01, 2023 303   @ UT Rio Grande Valley W 72-67 66%    
  Feb 04, 2023 248   @ Texas Arlington W 64-63 51%    
  Feb 11, 2023 147   @ Abilene Christian L 67-72 35%    
  Feb 15, 2023 248   Texas Arlington W 66-60 70%    
  Feb 18, 2023 245   @ Tarleton St. W 61-60 51%    
  Feb 23, 2023 193   California Baptist W 69-65 61%    
  Feb 25, 2023 177   Southern Utah W 71-68 59%    
  Mar 01, 2023 166   @ Stephen F. Austin L 66-69 40%    
  Mar 03, 2023 147   Abilene Christian W 70-69 54%    
Projected Record 12 - 14 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.2 2.9 2.3 1.2 0.3 10.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.7 3.3 3.1 1.4 0.3 0.0 10.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.9 4.1 2.7 0.8 0.1 0.0 9.9 3rd
4th 0.2 1.7 4.2 2.7 0.7 0.0 9.5 4th
5th 0.1 1.3 4.2 2.9 0.5 0.0 9.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 3.9 3.4 0.7 0.0 8.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 3.0 3.6 0.9 0.0 8.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.4 3.7 1.2 0.1 7.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.8 3.6 1.5 0.1 7.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.7 1.8 0.3 0.0 6.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.4 1.6 0.3 0.0 5.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.8 1.1 0.2 0.0 4.6 12th
13th 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.1 13th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.3 3.6 5.2 6.7 8.6 9.5 10.3 10.5 10.1 9.2 7.7 6.0 4.3 2.6 1.2 0.3 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 99.1% 1.2    1.1 0.1
16-2 89.1% 2.3    1.8 0.5 0.0
15-3 66.1% 2.9    1.6 1.1 0.2
14-4 36.0% 2.2    0.8 1.0 0.3 0.1
13-5 12.4% 0.9    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.7% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 10.0% 10.0 5.9 3.0 0.9 0.2 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 67.4% 49.7% 17.7% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 35.1%
17-1 1.2% 48.4% 37.7% 10.7% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 17.2%
16-2 2.6% 37.2% 32.4% 4.7% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.6 7.0%
15-3 4.3% 24.4% 23.6% 0.8% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 3.3 1.1%
14-4 6.0% 17.1% 16.9% 0.2% 13.3 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 5.0 0.3%
13-5 7.7% 14.1% 14.0% 0.1% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 6.6 0.1%
12-6 9.2% 10.6% 10.6% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 8.3
11-7 10.1% 7.0% 7.0% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 9.4
10-8 10.5% 5.2% 5.2% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 10.0
9-9 10.3% 3.8% 3.8% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 9.9
8-10 9.5% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.0 0.2 9.2
7-11 8.6% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.2 8.5
6-12 6.7% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 6.6
5-13 5.2% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 5.2
4-14 3.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 3.6
3-15 2.3% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 2.3
2-16 1.2% 1.2
1-17 0.5% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.5
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 8.1% 7.8% 0.4% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.5 91.9 0.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%