Preseason Rankings
Grand Canyon
Western Athletic
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+3.7#116
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace64.5#281
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+1.5#144
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.2#116
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.5% 0.7% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.0% 1.4% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 19.3% 23.3% 10.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2.6% 3.8% 0.3%
Average Seed 12.0 11.6 13.5
.500 or above 80.9% 88.9% 63.9%
.500 or above in Conference 79.2% 85.1% 66.7%
Conference Champion 21.7% 26.5% 11.6%
Last Place in Conference 1.8% 0.9% 3.6%
First Four1.6% 1.7% 1.2%
First Round18.6% 22.5% 10.3%
Second Round4.5% 6.0% 1.4%
Sweet Sixteen1.2% 1.7% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.5% 0.0%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Montana St. (Home) - 68.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 35 - 47 - 8
Quad 411 - 218 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 140   Montana St. W 72-67 68%    
  Nov 12, 2022 126   @ Nevada L 72-74 42%    
  Nov 18, 2022 318   Grambling St. W 77-61 92%    
  Nov 21, 2022 94   Wichita St. L 67-69 41%    
  Nov 26, 2022 194   Pepperdine W 76-68 74%    
  Nov 29, 2022 350   Alcorn St. W 79-58 96%    
  Dec 03, 2022 62   @ Wyoming L 64-72 24%    
  Dec 07, 2022 155   Loyola Marymount W 72-66 68%    
  Dec 10, 2022 79   North Texas L 57-61 37%    
  Dec 20, 2022 324   Idaho St. W 73-56 91%    
  Dec 29, 2022 193   California Baptist W 73-65 73%    
  Jan 05, 2023 175   @ Sam Houston St. W 65-64 53%    
  Jan 07, 2023 166   @ Stephen F. Austin W 70-69 52%    
  Jan 12, 2023 248   Texas Arlington W 70-60 80%    
  Jan 14, 2023 193   @ California Baptist W 70-68 55%    
  Jan 18, 2023 253   Utah Tech W 65-54 81%    
  Jan 21, 2023 156   Utah Valley W 70-64 69%    
  Jan 26, 2023 147   @ Abilene Christian L 71-72 47%    
  Jan 28, 2023 245   @ Tarleton St. W 65-61 63%    
  Feb 04, 2023 166   Stephen F. Austin W 73-66 70%    
  Feb 09, 2023 111   New Mexico St. W 68-65 58%    
  Feb 11, 2023 173   @ Seattle W 71-70 53%    
  Feb 15, 2023 303   UT Rio Grande Valley W 79-64 88%    
  Feb 17, 2023 147   Abilene Christian W 74-69 65%    
  Feb 22, 2023 111   @ New Mexico St. L 65-68 40%    
  Feb 24, 2023 173   Seattle W 74-67 70%    
  Mar 01, 2023 177   @ Southern Utah W 73-72 53%    
  Mar 03, 2023 253   @ Utah Tech W 62-57 65%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.5 4.0 5.7 5.5 3.5 1.3 21.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.2 4.7 5.0 2.3 0.5 0.0 15.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.1 5.0 3.6 1.1 0.1 0.0 12.2 3rd
4th 0.1 1.6 4.4 3.1 0.7 0.0 10.0 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 3.7 3.1 0.6 0.0 8.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 3.0 3.1 0.6 0.0 7.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.1 3.0 0.8 0.1 6.3 7th
8th 0.2 1.3 2.8 1.0 0.1 5.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.2 1.1 0.1 4.4 9th
10th 0.1 0.7 1.6 1.1 0.2 3.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.0 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.5 2.4 3.6 5.1 7.0 8.3 9.5 10.6 11.2 10.6 10.2 8.1 6.0 3.5 1.3 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.3    1.3
17-1 99.7% 3.5    3.3 0.1
16-2 92.0% 5.5    4.6 0.9 0.0
15-3 70.3% 5.7    3.6 1.9 0.3
14-4 39.4% 4.0    1.7 1.7 0.5 0.1
13-5 14.2% 1.5    0.3 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0
12-6 1.8% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 21.7% 21.7 14.7 5.2 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.3% 86.7% 62.5% 24.1% 6.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 64.4%
17-1 3.5% 73.0% 53.4% 19.6% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.9 42.1%
16-2 6.0% 52.3% 40.8% 11.6% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.9 19.6%
15-3 8.1% 36.4% 32.3% 4.0% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 5.1 6.0%
14-4 10.2% 26.8% 25.8% 1.0% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 7.5 1.4%
13-5 10.6% 19.4% 19.3% 0.2% 13.0 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 8.5 0.2%
12-6 11.2% 15.3% 15.3% 0.0% 13.5 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.0 9.5 0.0%
11-7 10.6% 11.7% 11.7% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 9.3
10-8 9.5% 7.5% 7.5% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 8.8
9-9 8.3% 6.3% 6.3% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 7.8
8-10 7.0% 4.2% 4.2% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 6.7
7-11 5.1% 3.0% 3.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 5.0
6-12 3.6% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.1 3.5
5-13 2.4% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 2.4
4-14 1.5% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 1.4
3-15 0.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 0.7
2-16 0.4% 0.4
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 19.3% 17.2% 2.1% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 1.1 2.9 4.7 3.9 2.4 1.3 0.9 80.7 2.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 98.0% 3.8 8.3 11.9 15.8 34.9 18.8 5.1 2.0 1.2