Preseason Rankings
Wichita St.
American Athletic
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+6.1#94
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.4#166
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+2.3#119
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+3.8#81
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.5% 1.5% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 3.2% 3.3% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.2% 16.6% 2.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 11.2% 11.5% 1.0%
Average Seed 9.2 9.2 12.0
.500 or above 65.3% 66.4% 22.4%
.500 or above in Conference 52.5% 53.4% 19.7%
Conference Champion 4.7% 4.8% 1.0%
Last Place in Conference 8.1% 7.6% 24.6%
First Four2.8% 2.9% 1.0%
First Round14.9% 15.2% 2.7%
Second Round7.1% 7.3% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen2.5% 2.5% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.9% 0.9% 0.1%
Final Four0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Central Arkansas (Home) - 97.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 5
Quad 23 - 44 - 9
Quad 35 - 39 - 12
Quad 47 - 116 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 334   Central Arkansas W 87-67 97%    
  Nov 12, 2022 350   Alcorn St. W 82-58 98%    
  Nov 17, 2022 88   @ Richmond L 68-72 38%    
  Nov 21, 2022 116   Grand Canyon W 69-67 59%    
  Nov 26, 2022 245   Tarleton St. W 71-58 86%    
  Nov 29, 2022 70   Missouri W 70-69 53%    
  Dec 03, 2022 68   @ Kansas St. L 67-72 33%    
  Dec 10, 2022 152   Longwood W 74-66 75%    
  Dec 13, 2022 363   Mississippi Valley W 90-57 99.6%   
  Dec 17, 2022 38   Oklahoma St. L 68-71 41%    
  Dec 22, 2022 241   Texas Southern W 75-63 84%    
  Dec 28, 2022 92   @ Central Florida L 69-72 41%    
  Dec 31, 2022 192   East Carolina W 75-65 79%    
  Jan 05, 2023 53   Cincinnati L 70-71 48%    
  Jan 08, 2023 142   @ South Florida W 65-64 55%    
  Jan 14, 2023 136   Tulsa W 73-66 71%    
  Jan 19, 2023 35   @ Memphis L 68-77 24%    
  Jan 22, 2023 95   @ SMU L 69-72 41%    
  Jan 25, 2023 82   Tulane W 73-71 56%    
  Jan 29, 2023 192   @ East Carolina W 72-68 62%    
  Feb 02, 2023 5   Houston L 61-70 24%    
  Feb 05, 2023 136   @ Tulsa W 70-69 53%    
  Feb 08, 2023 92   Central Florida W 72-69 59%    
  Feb 12, 2023 95   SMU W 72-69 60%    
  Feb 16, 2023 93   @ Temple L 67-70 40%    
  Feb 23, 2023 35   Memphis L 71-74 41%    
  Feb 26, 2023 82   @ Tulane L 70-74 37%    
  Mar 02, 2023 5   @ Houston L 58-73 12%    
  Mar 05, 2023 142   South Florida W 68-61 72%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.4 1.1 0.5 0.1 4.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.8 3.0 2.5 1.1 0.2 0.0 9.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.9 3.0 4.1 2.2 0.5 0.0 10.8 3rd
4th 0.1 1.1 3.8 4.3 1.7 0.2 0.0 11.2 4th
5th 0.1 1.3 4.4 4.2 1.5 0.1 0.0 11.6 5th
6th 0.1 1.3 4.6 4.2 1.2 0.1 11.4 6th
7th 0.1 1.2 4.4 3.9 1.1 0.1 10.8 7th
8th 0.1 1.3 3.8 3.6 0.9 0.1 9.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.5 2.8 0.8 0.0 8.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 1.8 2.6 1.8 0.5 0.0 7.1 10th
11th 0.2 0.8 1.5 1.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 4.9 11th
Total 0.2 0.9 1.9 3.4 4.9 6.8 8.4 10.1 10.8 10.9 10.2 9.3 7.8 5.9 4.1 2.5 1.3 0.5 0.1 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 99.5% 0.5    0.5 0.0
16-2 86.4% 1.1    0.8 0.3 0.0
15-3 55.5% 1.4    0.7 0.6 0.1
14-4 26.7% 1.1    0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0
13-5 7.1% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.7% 4.7 2.6 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 46.5% 53.5% 2.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.5% 98.4% 24.5% 73.9% 3.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.9%
16-2 1.3% 95.7% 23.7% 72.1% 5.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 94.4%
15-3 2.5% 87.4% 18.2% 69.2% 6.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 84.6%
14-4 4.1% 73.2% 16.4% 56.8% 8.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.1 1.1 68.0%
13-5 5.9% 51.7% 12.7% 39.0% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.9 44.7%
12-6 7.8% 31.1% 9.5% 21.5% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 5.4 23.8%
11-7 9.3% 15.8% 7.2% 8.5% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 7.8 9.2%
10-8 10.2% 8.7% 5.7% 3.0% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 9.3 3.2%
9-9 10.9% 5.0% 4.3% 0.8% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 10.3 0.8%
8-10 10.8% 3.0% 2.9% 0.1% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 10.5 0.1%
7-11 10.1% 2.4% 2.4% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 9.8
6-12 8.4% 1.7% 1.7% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 8.3
5-13 6.8% 1.2% 1.2% 15.8 0.0 0.1 6.8
4-14 4.9% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 4.9
3-15 3.4% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 3.4
2-16 1.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.9
1-17 0.9% 0.9
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 16.2% 5.7% 10.6% 9.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.5 1.8 2.5 3.2 1.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.4 83.8 11.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.6 63.4 18.3 12.2 6.1