Preseason Rankings
Tulane
American Athletic
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+7.2#82
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace69.5#131
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+5.2#50
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.0#119
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 0.6% 0.7% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 2.1% 2.4% 0.2%
Top 6 Seed 4.2% 4.6% 0.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 19.3% 20.9% 5.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 13.3% 14.7% 2.2%
Average Seed 9.0 8.9 11.0
.500 or above 80.8% 84.1% 51.9%
.500 or above in Conference 57.2% 60.1% 31.3%
Conference Champion 5.9% 6.5% 1.3%
Last Place in Conference 6.4% 5.3% 16.1%
First Four3.3% 3.6% 1.2%
First Round17.7% 19.2% 4.7%
Second Round8.7% 9.5% 1.4%
Sweet Sixteen3.3% 3.6% 0.4%
Elite Eight1.4% 1.5% 0.2%
Final Four0.5% 0.6% 0.1%
Championship Game0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Maryland Baltimore Co. (Home) - 89.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 4
Quad 23 - 34 - 7
Quad 36 - 39 - 10
Quad 48 - 117 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 236   Maryland Baltimore Co. W 82-69 90%    
  Nov 11, 2022 331   McNeese St. W 88-67 97%    
  Nov 16, 2022 335   Charleston Southern W 86-64 97%    
  Nov 21, 2022 126   Nevada W 80-76 64%    
  Nov 28, 2022 259   Louisiana Monroe W 83-68 90%    
  Dec 03, 2022 202   Fordham W 75-63 83%    
  Dec 06, 2022 163   Bryant W 87-77 79%    
  Dec 10, 2022 133   Buffalo W 81-76 66%    
  Dec 17, 2022 123   George Mason W 73-69 62%    
  Dec 21, 2022 363   Mississippi Valley W 95-60 99.8%   
  Dec 29, 2022 53   @ Cincinnati L 71-77 32%    
  Jan 01, 2023 35   Memphis L 75-77 44%    
  Jan 04, 2023 136   Tulsa W 76-68 74%    
  Jan 07, 2023 93   @ Temple L 70-72 44%    
  Jan 11, 2023 95   @ SMU L 73-75 45%    
  Jan 14, 2023 92   Central Florida W 75-71 62%    
  Jan 17, 2023 5   Houston L 64-72 27%    
  Jan 21, 2023 136   @ Tulsa W 73-71 57%    
  Jan 25, 2023 94   @ Wichita St. L 71-73 44%    
  Feb 01, 2023 95   SMU W 76-72 63%    
  Feb 04, 2023 35   @ Memphis L 72-80 27%    
  Feb 07, 2023 53   Cincinnati W 74-73 52%    
  Feb 11, 2023 192   East Carolina W 79-68 81%    
  Feb 18, 2023 142   @ South Florida W 69-66 58%    
  Feb 22, 2023 5   @ Houston L 61-75 13%    
  Feb 26, 2023 94   Wichita St. W 74-70 63%    
  Mar 01, 2023 192   @ East Carolina W 76-71 65%    
  Mar 05, 2023 93   Temple W 73-69 62%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.8 1.5 0.7 0.2 5.9 1st
2nd 0.1 0.5 2.0 3.4 3.0 1.3 0.3 10.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.3 4.4 2.5 0.6 0.0 11.8 3rd
4th 0.1 1.1 4.0 4.5 1.8 0.3 0.0 11.8 4th
5th 0.1 1.4 4.5 4.4 1.5 0.1 0.0 11.9 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 4.2 4.1 1.2 0.1 0.0 10.9 6th
7th 0.1 1.2 3.9 3.7 1.1 0.1 10.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.5 3.3 0.9 0.1 9.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.1 2.4 0.7 0.0 7.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 1.5 2.2 1.6 0.4 0.0 6.2 10th
11th 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 3.6 11th
Total 0.2 0.6 1.5 2.8 4.3 6.4 7.6 9.2 10.2 10.9 10.7 9.9 8.4 6.7 4.8 3.1 1.8 0.7 0.2 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 0.7    0.7 0.0
16-2 82.5% 1.5    1.2 0.3 0.0
15-3 56.3% 1.8    1.0 0.7 0.1 0.0
14-4 24.9% 1.2    0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0
13-5 7.9% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.9% 5.9 3.5 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 100.0% 51.1% 48.9% 2.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.7% 100.0% 34.7% 65.3% 3.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 1.8% 97.6% 27.5% 70.1% 4.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 96.7%
15-3 3.1% 91.2% 20.8% 70.4% 6.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 88.9%
14-4 4.8% 72.1% 16.7% 55.4% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.3 66.5%
13-5 6.7% 54.3% 14.3% 40.0% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.3 0.0 3.1 46.7%
12-6 8.4% 32.4% 10.0% 22.4% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.1 0.4 0.0 5.7 24.9%
11-7 9.9% 16.4% 7.6% 8.8% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 8.3 9.5%
10-8 10.7% 8.4% 5.8% 2.6% 11.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 9.8 2.8%
9-9 10.9% 5.2% 4.9% 0.3% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 10.3 0.3%
8-10 10.2% 3.1% 3.0% 0.1% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 9.9 0.1%
7-11 9.2% 2.6% 2.6% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 9.0
6-12 7.6% 2.1% 2.1% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 7.5
5-13 6.4% 1.5% 1.5% 15.9 0.0 0.1 6.3
4-14 4.3% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 4.3
3-15 2.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 2.8
2-16 1.5% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 1.5
1-17 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 0.6
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 19.3% 6.9% 12.4% 9.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.3 1.6 2.1 2.9 3.9 1.9 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.3 80.7 13.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.9 40.7 33.2 22.1 4.0