Preseason Rankings
Richmond
Atlantic 10
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+6.7#88
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace67.1#212
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.3#86
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+3.3#90
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.7% 0.7% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 2.4% 2.5% 0.2%
Top 6 Seed 4.5% 4.9% 0.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21.3% 22.5% 5.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 15.0% 16.0% 2.2%
Average Seed 9.0 9.0 11.3
.500 or above 79.7% 82.0% 47.9%
.500 or above in Conference 69.7% 71.7% 43.6%
Conference Champion 9.7% 10.3% 2.0%
Last Place in Conference 2.8% 2.3% 9.5%
First Four3.9% 4.1% 1.2%
First Round19.3% 20.4% 4.6%
Second Round9.2% 9.7% 1.4%
Sweet Sixteen3.3% 3.5% 0.5%
Elite Eight1.2% 1.3% 0.1%
Final Four0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
Championship Game0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: VMI (Home) - 93.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 3
Quad 23 - 44 - 7
Quad 37 - 310 - 10
Quad 48 - 119 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 272   VMI W 82-66 93%    
  Nov 11, 2022 132   Northern Iowa W 74-67 75%    
  Nov 14, 2022 151   @ College of Charleston W 80-77 59%    
  Nov 17, 2022 94   Wichita St. W 72-68 62%    
  Nov 21, 2022 52   Syracuse L 72-75 39%    
  Nov 30, 2022 108   @ Toledo L 73-74 47%    
  Dec 03, 2022 295   @ William & Mary W 78-66 83%    
  Dec 10, 2022 74   Drake W 71-69 55%    
  Dec 13, 2022 319   Fairleigh Dickinson W 86-66 94%    
  Dec 17, 2022 65   Clemson L 68-70 44%    
  Dec 21, 2022 274   Bucknell W 82-66 90%    
  Dec 28, 2022 336   Coppin St. W 85-64 96%    
  Dec 31, 2022 123   @ George Mason W 68-67 51%    
  Jan 04, 2023 196   George Washington W 78-67 81%    
  Jan 07, 2023 178   Duquesne W 74-64 79%    
  Jan 11, 2023 81   @ Davidson L 67-71 39%    
  Jan 14, 2023 103   @ St. Bonaventure L 68-69 47%    
  Jan 17, 2023 112   Rhode Island W 72-66 68%    
  Jan 20, 2023 75   Virginia Commonwealth W 70-68 55%    
  Jan 25, 2023 124   @ Massachusetts W 77-76 51%    
  Jan 28, 2023 28   @ Dayton L 61-70 24%    
  Feb 01, 2023 103   St. Bonaventure W 71-66 65%    
  Feb 05, 2023 202   Fordham W 72-61 81%    
  Feb 08, 2023 196   @ George Washington W 75-70 64%    
  Feb 11, 2023 54   Loyola Chicago L 66-67 50%    
  Feb 15, 2023 182   @ La Salle W 72-68 63%    
  Feb 21, 2023 45   Saint Louis L 72-73 47%    
  Feb 24, 2023 75   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 67-71 37%    
  Mar 01, 2023 149   @ Saint Joseph's W 72-69 58%    
  Mar 04, 2023 123   George Mason W 71-65 68%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 1.8 2.7 2.7 1.5 0.4 9.7 1st
2nd 0.1 0.8 3.0 4.0 2.3 0.6 0.0 10.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 3.3 4.1 1.7 0.3 0.0 10.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 3.3 4.4 1.7 0.1 0.0 10.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.4 4.4 1.7 0.1 8.9 5th
6th 0.1 1.6 4.1 2.3 0.2 8.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 3.6 2.7 0.3 0.0 7.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.6 3.2 0.7 0.0 6.8 8th
9th 0.2 1.7 3.3 1.1 0.1 6.3 9th
10th 0.1 0.9 2.8 1.7 0.1 5.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 2.2 1.7 0.3 0.0 4.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 1.6 1.7 0.4 0.0 4.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.3 0.4 0.0 3.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.9 0.4 0.1 2.4 14th
15th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.4 15th
Total 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.5 2.6 3.9 5.5 7.0 8.7 9.8 10.6 11.1 10.4 9.4 7.6 5.3 3.4 1.6 0.4 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-1 97.0% 1.5    1.4 0.2
16-2 81.2% 2.7    1.9 0.8 0.1
15-3 51.4% 2.7    1.3 1.2 0.3 0.0
14-4 23.1% 1.8    0.5 0.8 0.4 0.1
13-5 5.3% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.7% 9.7 5.5 3.1 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.4% 98.8% 41.3% 57.6% 2.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.0%
17-1 1.6% 96.9% 28.2% 68.7% 4.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 95.6%
16-2 3.4% 91.1% 22.8% 68.2% 6.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.3 88.4%
15-3 5.3% 76.1% 18.8% 57.3% 8.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.3 70.5%
14-4 7.6% 55.4% 13.0% 42.4% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.1 0.3 0.0 3.4 48.7%
13-5 9.4% 35.3% 11.4% 23.9% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.2 0.5 0.0 0.0 6.1 27.0%
12-6 10.4% 19.2% 7.8% 11.3% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 8.4 12.3%
11-7 11.1% 10.5% 6.5% 4.0% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 9.9 4.3%
10-8 10.6% 5.6% 4.9% 0.7% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.0 0.7%
9-9 9.8% 3.7% 3.6% 0.1% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 9.5 0.1%
8-10 8.7% 3.1% 3.0% 0.0% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 8.4 0.0%
7-11 7.0% 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 6.9 0.0%
6-12 5.5% 1.4% 1.4% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 5.4
5-13 3.9% 1.1% 1.1% 15.9 0.0 0.0 3.8
4-14 2.6% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 2.5
3-15 1.5% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 1.5
2-16 0.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 0.9
1-17 0.3% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 0.3
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 21.3% 7.4% 13.9% 9.0 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.6 2.3 3.4 4.3 2.3 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.3 78.7 15.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.9 34.6 39.1 23.1 3.3