Preseason Rankings
Massachusetts
Atlantic 10
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+3.4#124
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace72.5#69
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+5.3#48
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-1.9#236
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.1% 1.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.9% 9.1% 1.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 5.2% 5.3% 0.2%
Average Seed 10.1 10.1 14.1
.500 or above 60.5% 61.5% 21.6%
.500 or above in Conference 50.9% 51.7% 22.6%
Conference Champion 4.7% 4.8% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 7.7% 7.3% 22.4%
First Four2.0% 2.0% 0.7%
First Round7.9% 8.1% 1.2%
Second Round3.0% 3.1% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.9% 0.9% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Central Connecticut St. (Home) - 97.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 22 - 42 - 7
Quad 36 - 58 - 12
Quad 47 - 115 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 349   Central Connecticut St. W 85-65 97%    
  Nov 10, 2022 118   Towson W 76-73 60%    
  Nov 17, 2022 59   Colorado L 73-79 30%    
  Nov 29, 2022 142   @ South Florida L 70-71 46%    
  Dec 02, 2022 167   @ Harvard W 76-75 51%    
  Dec 05, 2022 300   Albany W 80-65 88%    
  Dec 08, 2022 238   Umass Lowell W 82-72 78%    
  Dec 11, 2022 141   Hofstra W 82-80 56%    
  Dec 17, 2022 79   North Texas L 64-68 36%    
  Dec 20, 2022 257   Dartmouth W 78-67 82%    
  Dec 31, 2022 103   @ St. Bonaventure L 73-77 36%    
  Jan 04, 2023 45   Saint Louis L 77-81 36%    
  Jan 07, 2023 196   @ George Washington W 79-78 54%    
  Jan 11, 2023 182   La Salle W 80-73 71%    
  Jan 14, 2023 112   Rhode Island W 77-74 58%    
  Jan 17, 2023 75   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 71-79 27%    
  Jan 21, 2023 149   @ Saint Joseph's L 76-77 48%    
  Jan 25, 2023 88   Richmond L 76-77 49%    
  Jan 28, 2023 178   Duquesne W 79-72 70%    
  Feb 01, 2023 123   @ George Mason L 73-76 41%    
  Feb 04, 2023 81   Davidson L 75-76 47%    
  Feb 08, 2023 202   @ Fordham W 74-72 56%    
  Feb 11, 2023 182   @ La Salle W 77-76 53%    
  Feb 14, 2023 54   Loyola Chicago L 70-73 40%    
  Feb 18, 2023 112   @ Rhode Island L 74-77 40%    
  Feb 22, 2023 28   Dayton L 68-74 31%    
  Mar 01, 2023 178   @ Duquesne W 76-75 52%    
  Mar 04, 2023 103   St. Bonaventure W 76-74 55%    
Projected Record 15 - 13 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.4 1.3 0.6 0.2 4.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 2.2 1.1 0.3 0.0 5.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 2.2 2.6 1.0 0.1 0.0 6.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.5 2.9 1.0 0.1 0.0 7.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.0 3.5 1.3 0.1 7.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.6 3.9 1.8 0.2 7.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 3.8 2.5 0.4 0.0 7.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 3.2 3.4 0.7 0.0 7.8 8th
9th 0.3 2.3 3.9 1.2 0.1 7.7 9th
10th 0.1 1.4 3.8 1.9 0.1 7.4 10th
11th 0.1 0.9 3.3 2.6 0.3 0.0 7.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.8 2.9 2.6 0.6 0.0 6.9 12th
13th 0.1 0.7 2.3 2.5 0.7 0.0 6.3 13th
14th 0.1 0.8 2.0 2.0 0.7 0.1 5.7 14th
15th 0.4 1.0 1.5 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 4.4 15th
Total 0.4 1.2 2.3 3.8 5.5 7.2 8.5 9.8 10.4 10.5 9.6 8.9 7.2 5.6 4.2 2.7 1.6 0.6 0.2 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 99.2% 0.6    0.6 0.0
16-2 82.2% 1.3    0.9 0.4 0.0
15-3 53.9% 1.4    0.7 0.6 0.1 0.0
14-4 22.2% 0.9    0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-5 4.0% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.7% 4.7 2.6 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 100.0% 33.2% 66.8% 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.6% 91.4% 24.8% 66.6% 5.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 88.6%
16-2 1.6% 79.7% 20.5% 59.1% 7.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 74.4%
15-3 2.7% 60.1% 15.3% 44.9% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.1 52.9%
14-4 4.2% 38.6% 11.5% 27.0% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 2.6 30.6%
13-5 5.6% 20.9% 7.5% 13.4% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 4.4 14.5%
12-6 7.2% 10.8% 6.2% 4.6% 11.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 6.4 4.9%
11-7 8.9% 5.6% 4.6% 1.0% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 8.4 1.0%
10-8 9.6% 4.2% 4.0% 0.2% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 9.2 0.3%
9-9 10.5% 2.8% 2.8% 0.0% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 10.2 0.0%
8-10 10.4% 2.0% 2.0% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 10.2
7-11 9.8% 1.6% 1.6% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9.6
6-12 8.5% 0.8% 0.8% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 8.4
5-13 7.2% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1 7.2
4-14 5.5% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 5.5
3-15 3.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 3.8
2-16 2.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.3
1-17 1.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.2
0-18 0.4% 0.4
Total 100% 8.9% 3.9% 5.0% 10.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.9 1.4 1.9 1.3 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 91.1 5.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.9 39.8 38.7 16.1 5.4
Lose Out 0.0%