Preseason Rankings
St. Bonaventure
Atlantic 10
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+4.8#103
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace65.0#264
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+2.1#124
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.7#106
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.9% 1.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 2.2% 2.3% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.4% 14.3% 2.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 8.7% 9.3% 1.0%
Average Seed 9.6 9.6 12.3
.500 or above 70.2% 72.9% 34.6%
.500 or above in Conference 60.5% 62.6% 33.7%
Conference Champion 5.6% 6.0% 1.0%
Last Place in Conference 4.0% 3.4% 12.0%
First Four2.8% 2.9% 0.8%
First Round12.1% 12.9% 2.7%
Second Round5.0% 5.4% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen1.6% 1.8% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.5% 0.6% 0.0%
Final Four0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: St. Francis (PA) (Home) - 92.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 4
Quad 22 - 43 - 7
Quad 36 - 49 - 11
Quad 49 - 218 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 291   St. Francis (PA) W 78-62 93%    
  Nov 12, 2022 290   @ Canisius W 75-65 81%    
  Nov 15, 2022 134   South Dakota St. W 77-74 59%    
  Nov 19, 2022 234   Bowling Green W 83-72 82%    
  Nov 22, 2022 339   Southern Indiana W 78-58 95%    
  Nov 25, 2022 40   Notre Dame L 66-73 29%    
  Nov 30, 2022 137   Middle Tennessee W 71-65 68%    
  Dec 03, 2022 133   @ Buffalo L 74-75 48%    
  Dec 07, 2022 215   Cleveland St. W 75-65 79%    
  Dec 11, 2022 101   Iona L 71-72 49%    
  Dec 16, 2022 203   Florida Gulf Coast W 79-70 77%    
  Dec 19, 2022 244   @ Siena W 69-64 67%    
  Dec 22, 2022 132   @ Northern Iowa L 69-70 48%    
  Dec 31, 2022 124   Massachusetts W 77-73 64%    
  Jan 04, 2023 123   George Mason W 69-65 64%    
  Jan 07, 2023 45   @ Saint Louis L 66-75 23%    
  Jan 11, 2023 112   @ Rhode Island L 67-69 44%    
  Jan 14, 2023 88   Richmond W 69-68 53%    
  Jan 18, 2023 178   Duquesne W 72-64 74%    
  Jan 21, 2023 54   @ Loyola Chicago L 61-69 26%    
  Jan 25, 2023 202   Fordham W 70-61 76%    
  Jan 28, 2023 75   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 65-71 31%    
  Feb 01, 2023 88   @ Richmond L 66-71 35%    
  Feb 04, 2023 28   Dayton L 62-67 35%    
  Feb 08, 2023 182   La Salle W 72-64 74%    
  Feb 11, 2023 178   @ Duquesne W 69-67 56%    
  Feb 15, 2023 202   @ Fordham W 67-64 60%    
  Feb 19, 2023 196   George Washington W 75-66 76%    
  Feb 22, 2023 81   @ Davidson L 66-71 34%    
  Feb 26, 2023 149   Saint Joseph's W 73-66 70%    
  Mar 04, 2023 124   @ Massachusetts L 74-76 45%    
Projected Record 18 - 13 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.7 1.5 0.7 0.2 5.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 2.3 2.7 1.5 0.3 0.0 7.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 2.9 3.2 1.2 0.1 0.0 8.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.8 3.7 1.4 0.1 8.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.6 4.2 1.6 0.1 8.8 5th
6th 0.1 1.6 4.4 2.2 0.2 0.0 8.6 6th
7th 0.0 1.0 4.1 2.9 0.4 0.0 8.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 3.3 3.6 0.8 0.0 8.2 8th
9th 0.2 2.2 3.9 1.2 0.1 7.6 9th
10th 0.1 1.1 3.6 1.8 0.1 6.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.8 2.9 2.2 0.3 0.0 6.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.5 2.2 2.4 0.5 0.0 5.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.4 1.5 1.9 0.6 0.0 4.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.3 0.5 0.0 0.0 3.4 14th
15th 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 2.2 15th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.2 3.7 5.5 7.2 8.9 10.4 11.0 11.3 10.4 9.1 7.3 5.2 3.4 1.8 0.8 0.2 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 97.0% 0.7    0.6 0.1
16-2 82.6% 1.5    1.1 0.4 0.0
15-3 50.8% 1.7    0.8 0.7 0.2 0.0
14-4 20.7% 1.1    0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-5 4.3% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.6% 5.6 3.0 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 98.6% 29.3% 69.4% 3.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.1%
17-1 0.8% 95.3% 23.6% 71.7% 4.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 93.8%
16-2 1.8% 89.8% 22.5% 67.3% 6.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 86.9%
15-3 3.4% 73.6% 18.9% 54.7% 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.9 67.5%
14-4 5.2% 51.2% 12.4% 38.7% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.5 44.3%
13-5 7.3% 28.7% 9.2% 19.5% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 5.2 21.5%
12-6 9.1% 14.7% 7.6% 7.1% 11.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 7.8 7.7%
11-7 10.4% 8.2% 5.4% 2.8% 11.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 9.5 3.0%
10-8 11.3% 5.3% 4.8% 0.5% 12.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 10.7 0.5%
9-9 11.0% 3.5% 3.4% 0.1% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 10.6 0.1%
8-10 10.4% 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 10.2 0.0%
7-11 8.9% 1.2% 1.2% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 8.8
6-12 7.2% 1.0% 1.0% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 7.2
5-13 5.5% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 5.4
4-14 3.7% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 3.7
3-15 2.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.2
2-16 1.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.1
1-17 0.4% 0.4
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 13.4% 5.2% 8.2% 9.6 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.4 2.1 2.9 1.8 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.3 86.6 8.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 2.2 35.9 20.3 32.0 11.7