Preseason Rankings
Virginia Commonwealth
Atlantic 10
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+8.1#75
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace71.2#94
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+1.2#155
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+6.9#26
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.5% 0.6% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 1.3% 1.5% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 3.8% 4.2% 0.2%
Top 6 Seed 7.0% 7.6% 0.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 27.9% 30.0% 7.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 20.2% 21.9% 4.1%
Average Seed 8.6 8.5 10.7
.500 or above 85.4% 88.2% 57.9%
.500 or above in Conference 70.9% 73.5% 45.0%
Conference Champion 11.3% 12.1% 3.1%
Last Place in Conference 2.1% 1.7% 6.5%
First Four4.3% 4.5% 1.8%
First Round25.9% 27.8% 6.8%
Second Round13.4% 14.5% 2.2%
Sweet Sixteen5.2% 5.7% 0.5%
Elite Eight2.1% 2.3% 0.1%
Final Four0.8% 0.9% 0.0%
Championship Game0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Manhattan (Home) - 90.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 4
Quad 23 - 34 - 7
Quad 36 - 210 - 10
Quad 49 - 119 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 227   Manhattan W 78-64 91%    
  Nov 12, 2022 287   Morgan St. W 83-64 95%    
  Nov 16, 2022 61   Arizona St. L 68-69 47%    
  Nov 20, 2022 35   @ Memphis L 68-75 28%    
  Nov 26, 2022 242   Kennesaw St. W 77-62 89%    
  Nov 30, 2022 72   Vanderbilt W 71-68 60%    
  Dec 03, 2022 93   @ Temple L 67-68 47%    
  Dec 07, 2022 160   Jacksonville W 68-57 82%    
  Dec 11, 2022 332   Howard W 87-65 96%    
  Dec 14, 2022 293   Radford W 75-56 94%    
  Dec 17, 2022 294   Northern Illinois W 78-59 94%    
  Dec 21, 2022 246   Navy W 71-56 88%    
  Dec 31, 2022 182   La Salle W 75-64 82%    
  Jan 04, 2023 178   @ Duquesne W 71-66 66%    
  Jan 07, 2023 81   Davidson W 71-67 63%    
  Jan 10, 2023 54   @ Loyola Chicago L 63-68 36%    
  Jan 13, 2023 28   @ Dayton L 60-68 28%    
  Jan 17, 2023 124   Massachusetts W 79-71 73%    
  Jan 20, 2023 88   @ Richmond L 68-70 45%    
  Jan 25, 2023 123   George Mason W 71-63 73%    
  Jan 28, 2023 103   St. Bonaventure W 71-65 69%    
  Jan 31, 2023 81   @ Davidson L 68-70 43%    
  Feb 03, 2023 45   @ Saint Louis L 68-74 33%    
  Feb 07, 2023 28   Dayton L 63-65 45%    
  Feb 15, 2023 112   @ Rhode Island W 69-68 54%    
  Feb 18, 2023 202   Fordham W 72-60 84%    
  Feb 21, 2023 149   @ Saint Joseph's W 72-68 62%    
  Feb 24, 2023 88   Richmond W 71-67 63%    
  Feb 28, 2023 45   Saint Louis W 72-71 51%    
  Mar 04, 2023 196   @ George Washington W 74-68 68%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 2.1 3.0 3.1 1.8 0.6 11.3 1st
2nd 0.1 0.9 3.2 4.0 2.1 0.4 0.0 10.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.8 3.5 4.1 1.5 0.2 10.2 3rd
4th 0.5 3.1 4.3 1.5 0.1 9.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.5 4.5 1.7 0.1 0.0 9.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.5 4.1 2.1 0.2 0.0 8.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 3.7 2.9 0.4 0.0 7.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.7 3.1 0.7 0.0 6.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.8 3.2 1.2 0.1 6.4 9th
10th 0.1 1.1 2.7 1.4 0.2 5.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.6 2.1 1.8 0.3 0.0 4.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 1.5 1.5 0.4 0.0 3.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.2 0.3 0.0 2.8 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.8 0.3 0.0 2.1 14th
15th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.0 15th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.4 3.6 5.3 7.2 8.5 10.0 10.7 11.0 10.8 9.5 7.7 5.2 3.5 1.8 0.6 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
17-1 99.3% 1.8    1.7 0.1
16-2 88.6% 3.1    2.3 0.8 0.0
15-3 57.6% 3.0    1.6 1.2 0.2 0.0
14-4 27.2% 2.1    0.6 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-5 6.2% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 11.3% 11.3 6.8 3.2 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.6% 100.0% 46.5% 53.5% 2.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 1.8% 99.6% 35.2% 64.4% 3.5 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.3%
16-2 3.5% 96.1% 28.5% 67.7% 5.4 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 94.6%
15-3 5.2% 87.7% 22.4% 65.2% 7.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.6 84.1%
14-4 7.7% 71.5% 18.4% 53.1% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.2 0.0 2.2 65.1%
13-5 9.5% 49.4% 13.2% 36.2% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.3 1.4 0.4 0.0 4.8 41.7%
12-6 10.8% 30.8% 10.2% 20.5% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 7.4 22.9%
11-7 11.0% 16.2% 8.4% 7.8% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 9.2 8.5%
10-8 10.7% 9.6% 6.8% 2.7% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.7 2.9%
9-9 10.0% 5.3% 4.7% 0.5% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 9.5 0.6%
8-10 8.5% 3.6% 3.6% 0.0% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 8.2 0.0%
7-11 7.2% 3.1% 3.1% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 7.0
6-12 5.3% 1.5% 1.5% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.2
5-13 3.6% 1.5% 1.5% 15.9 0.0 0.0 3.6
4-14 2.4% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 2.4
3-15 1.2% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 1.2
2-16 0.6% 0.6
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 27.9% 9.7% 18.2% 8.6 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.4 1.5 1.7 2.1 2.4 3.3 4.3 5.2 2.4 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.3 72.1 20.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.5 60.3 29.6 8.6 1.4