IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Morgan St.
Mid-Eastern
2022-23

Overall
Predictive Rating	-7.6	#287
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	77.8	#16
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-4.3	#297

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-3.4	#279

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	16.5%	39.1%	16.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.6	15.0	15.7

.500 or above	51.9%	90.1%	51.4%
.500 or above in Conference	85.6%	98.5%	85.5%
Conference Champion	21.4%	46.7%	21.1%
Last Place in Conference	1.3%	0.0%	1.4%

First Four	8.5%	10.1%	8.5%
First Round	11.6%	34.7%	11.3%
Second Round	0.2%	1.0%	0.2%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Xavier (Away) - 1.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	0 - 2	0 - 4
Quad 3	1 - 3	1 - 7
Quad 4	11 - 5	12 - 12

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 07, 2022	27	@ Xavier	L	67-90	1%
Nov 12, 2022	75	@ Virginia Commonwealth	L	64-83	5%
Nov 15, 2022	119	@ Akron	L	62-76	10%
Nov 18, 2022	156	Utah Valley	L	69-77	24%
Nov 23, 2022	155	@ Loyola Marymount	L	70-81	16%
Dec 03, 2022	234	@ Bowling Green	L	81-89	27%
Dec 10, 2022	236	@ Maryland Baltimore Co.	L	74-81	27%
Dec 22, 2022	12	@ Arizona	L	70-97	1%
Dec 30, 2022	327	@ Hartford	L	74-75	50%
Jan 09, 2023	356	South Carolina St.	W	86-72	87%
Jan 09, 2023	340	NC Central	W	79-71	74%
Jan 14, 2023	336	@ Coppin St.	W	81-80	53%
Jan 18, 2023	327	Hartford	W	78-72	68%
Jan 21, 2023	332	@ Howard	W	82-81	52%
Jan 23, 2023	190	Norfolk St.	L	72-76	37%
Jan 28, 2023	358	@ Delaware St.	W	83-74	76%
Jan 30, 2023	361	Maryland Eastern Shore	W	80-63	91%
Feb 11, 2023	340	@ NC Central	W	76-74	56%
Feb 13, 2023	356	@ South Carolina St.	W	83-75	73%
Feb 18, 2023	190	@ Norfolk St.	L	69-79	22%
Feb 20, 2023	332	Howard	W	85-78	69%
Feb 25, 2023	358	Delaware St.	W	86-71	88%
Feb 27, 2023	361	@ Maryland Eastern Shore	W	77-66	80%
Mar 02, 2023	336	Coppin St.	W	84-77	71%
Projected Record						12 - 12	9 - 5

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Mid-Eastern Finish

	0-14	1-13	2-12	3-11	4-10	5-9	6-8	7-7	8-6	9-5	10-4	11-3	12-2	13-1	14-0		Total
1st									0.0	0.2	1.1	4.3	7.3	6.4	2.2		21.4	1st
2nd							0.0	0.0	1.0	4.8	10.3	9.8	4.0				30.0	2nd
3rd							0.1	1.8	5.9	7.9	4.0	0.5					20.2	3rd
4th						0.1	1.8	5.1	4.8	1.3	0.1						13.2	4th
5th				0.0	0.2	1.6	3.7	2.4	0.4	0.0							8.2	5th
6th			0.0	0.2	1.2	2.1	0.9	0.1									4.4	6th
7th		0.0	0.2	0.6	0.8	0.3	0.0										1.9	7th
8th	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0											0.7	8th

Total	0.0	0.1	0.4	1.0	2.2	4.2	6.5	9.4	12.1	14.2	15.6	14.6	11.3	6.4	2.2			Total

Mid-Eastern Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
14-0	100.0%	2.2		2.2
13-1	100.0%	6.4		5.3	1.2
12-2	64.2%	7.3		4.2	2.9	0.1
11-3	29.4%	4.3		1.6	2.2	0.5	0.0
10-4	7.3%	1.1		0.2	0.5	0.4	0.1
9-5	1.1%	0.2		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0
8-6	0.0%	0.0					0.0
7-7	0.0%

Total	21.4%	21.4		13.5	6.8	1.1	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
14-0	2.2%		70.1%	70.1%		14.8												0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.5	0.5	0.6
13-1	6.4%		52.3%	52.3%		15.3													0.0	0.1	0.4	1.1	1.7	3.1
12-2	11.3%		35.5%	35.5%		15.7													0.0	0.0	0.2	0.9	2.9	7.3
11-3	14.6%		22.0%	22.0%		15.9														0.0	0.1	0.3	2.8	11.4
10-4	15.6%		14.5%	14.5%		16.0															0.0	0.1	2.2	13.3
9-5	14.2%		8.5%	8.5%		16.0																0.0	1.2	13.0
8-6	12.1%		5.1%	5.1%		16.0																	0.6	11.5
7-7	9.4%		2.4%	2.4%		16.0																	0.2	9.1
6-8	6.5%		1.2%	1.2%		16.0																	0.1	6.4
5-9	4.2%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	4.1
4-10	2.2%																							2.2
3-11	1.0%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	1.0
2-12	0.4%																							0.4
1-13	0.1%																							0.1
0-14	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		16.5%	16.5%	0.0%	15.6												0.0	0.0	0.2	1.0	3.0	12.2	83.5		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.0%