Preseason Rankings
Utah Valley
Western Athletic
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+0.7#156
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace65.4#260
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+0.0#181
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.7#153
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 1.2% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.4% 20.1% 8.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.7% 3.4% 0.3%
Average Seed 13.0 11.8 13.6
.500 or above 53.1% 81.2% 47.6%
.500 or above in Conference 66.3% 84.4% 62.7%
Conference Champion 12.4% 24.9% 10.0%
Last Place in Conference 4.5% 0.9% 5.2%
First Four1.4% 1.8% 1.3%
First Round9.9% 19.2% 8.0%
Second Round1.7% 4.8% 1.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 1.3% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.4% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Utah St. (Away) - 16.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 31 - 6
Quad 34 - 45 - 10
Quad 49 - 314 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 76   @ Utah St. L 63-73 17%    
  Nov 12, 2022 320   Northern Arizona W 74-60 88%    
  Nov 15, 2022 67   @ Wake Forest L 68-79 17%    
  Nov 18, 2022 287   Morgan St. W 77-69 76%    
  Nov 26, 2022 77   @ Boise St. L 60-70 19%    
  Dec 03, 2022 188   Long Beach St. W 76-72 64%    
  Dec 07, 2022 55   @ BYU L 65-77 16%    
  Dec 10, 2022 320   @ Northern Arizona W 71-63 72%    
  Dec 20, 2022 26   @ Oregon L 64-79 11%    
  Dec 29, 2022 175   Sam Houston St. W 67-63 63%    
  Dec 31, 2022 253   Utah Tech W 64-56 74%    
  Jan 05, 2023 248   @ Texas Arlington W 66-65 54%    
  Jan 07, 2023 303   @ UT Rio Grande Valley W 75-69 68%    
  Jan 11, 2023 193   @ California Baptist L 69-70 46%    
  Jan 14, 2023 173   Seattle W 73-69 62%    
  Jan 18, 2023 147   Abilene Christian W 73-71 57%    
  Jan 21, 2023 116   @ Grand Canyon L 64-70 31%    
  Jan 26, 2023 177   @ Southern Utah L 72-74 43%    
  Jan 28, 2023 111   New Mexico St. L 67-68 50%    
  Feb 02, 2023 253   @ Utah Tech W 61-59 56%    
  Feb 08, 2023 193   California Baptist W 72-67 64%    
  Feb 11, 2023 177   Southern Utah W 75-71 62%    
  Feb 18, 2023 173   @ Seattle L 70-72 44%    
  Feb 23, 2023 245   @ Tarleton St. W 64-63 54%    
  Feb 25, 2023 147   @ Abilene Christian L 70-74 39%    
  Mar 01, 2023 248   Texas Arlington W 69-62 72%    
  Mar 03, 2023 166   Stephen F. Austin W 72-68 61%    
Projected Record 14 - 13 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.4 3.4 3.1 1.6 0.6 12.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.8 3.8 3.5 1.6 0.3 0.0 11.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.1 4.0 3.0 0.9 0.1 0.0 10.4 3rd
4th 0.1 1.7 4.2 2.8 0.6 0.0 9.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.3 4.1 3.1 0.6 0.0 9.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 3.5 3.4 0.7 0.0 8.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.7 3.6 0.8 0.0 0.0 7.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 2.1 3.3 1.2 0.1 7.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.1 1.6 0.1 6.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.6 1.5 0.2 0.0 5.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.1 1.4 0.2 0.0 5.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.6 1.0 0.3 4.2 12th
13th 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.5 13th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.0 3.2 4.5 6.1 7.6 8.7 9.9 10.4 10.4 9.5 8.5 6.9 5.1 3.4 1.6 0.6 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
17-1 99.1% 1.6    1.5 0.1
16-2 90.5% 3.1    2.5 0.6 0.0
15-3 66.6% 3.4    2.2 1.1 0.1
14-4 35.5% 2.4    1.0 1.0 0.4 0.0
13-5 12.8% 1.1    0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.8% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 12.4% 12.4 8.0 3.3 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.6% 71.5% 53.9% 17.5% 8.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 38.1%
17-1 1.6% 52.9% 40.0% 12.9% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.8 21.4%
16-2 3.4% 39.4% 32.8% 6.6% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.1 9.8%
15-3 5.1% 27.2% 25.4% 1.8% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 3.7 2.4%
14-4 6.9% 21.3% 20.8% 0.5% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 5.4 0.6%
13-5 8.5% 15.0% 14.9% 0.1% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 7.2 0.1%
12-6 9.5% 11.3% 11.3% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 8.4
11-7 10.4% 8.2% 8.2% 0.0% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 9.6 0.0%
10-8 10.4% 6.6% 6.6% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 9.7
9-9 9.9% 4.6% 4.6% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 9.4
8-10 8.7% 2.7% 2.7% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 8.5
7-11 7.6% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.2 7.4
6-12 6.1% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.1 6.0
5-13 4.5% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 4.5
4-14 3.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 3.2
3-15 2.0% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 2.0
2-16 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 1.0
1-17 0.4% 0.4
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 10.4% 9.7% 0.7% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.0 2.0 2.1 1.7 1.4 1.4 89.6 0.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 3.3 7.5 14.9 38.8 14.9 23.9
Lose Out 0.0%