Preseason Rankings
Abilene Christian
Western Athletic
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+1.4#147
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace74.7#37
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+0.5#172
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.9#146
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.2% 13.1% 4.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.0% 1.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.8 12.8 14.5
.500 or above 65.8% 69.7% 32.7%
.500 or above in Conference 66.7% 69.6% 42.7%
Conference Champion 13.2% 14.3% 3.8%
Last Place in Conference 3.9% 3.1% 10.5%
First Four1.3% 1.3% 1.3%
First Round11.5% 12.4% 4.0%
Second Round2.1% 2.3% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 0.7% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Jackson St. (Home) - 89.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 34 - 55 - 9
Quad 410 - 315 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 308   Jackson St. W 73-60 89%    
  Nov 11, 2022 39   @ Texas A&M L 66-79 12%    
  Nov 21, 2022 171   Wright St. W 78-76 55%    
  Nov 22, 2022 208   Weber St. W 79-76 60%    
  Nov 23, 2022 207   UC Riverside W 72-69 60%    
  Nov 27, 2022 320   @ Northern Arizona W 76-68 75%    
  Dec 06, 2022 68   @ Kansas St. L 68-78 20%    
  Dec 10, 2022 343   Texas A&M - Commerce W 81-64 92%    
  Dec 17, 2022 284   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 72-67 67%    
  Dec 29, 2022 166   @ Stephen F. Austin L 74-76 45%    
  Dec 31, 2022 245   Tarleton St. W 71-63 74%    
  Jan 07, 2023 177   Southern Utah W 80-75 65%    
  Jan 11, 2023 303   @ UT Rio Grande Valley W 81-74 70%    
  Jan 14, 2023 245   @ Tarleton St. W 68-66 56%    
  Jan 18, 2023 156   @ Utah Valley L 71-73 43%    
  Jan 21, 2023 248   Texas Arlington W 74-66 74%    
  Jan 26, 2023 116   Grand Canyon W 72-71 53%    
  Jan 28, 2023 253   Utah Tech W 69-60 76%    
  Feb 01, 2023 173   @ Seattle L 76-77 46%    
  Feb 04, 2023 193   @ California Baptist L 74-75 48%    
  Feb 11, 2023 175   Sam Houston St. W 72-67 65%    
  Feb 15, 2023 111   @ New Mexico St. L 70-75 33%    
  Feb 17, 2023 116   @ Grand Canyon L 69-74 35%    
  Feb 22, 2023 166   Stephen F. Austin W 77-73 63%    
  Feb 25, 2023 156   Utah Valley W 74-70 61%    
  Mar 01, 2023 111   New Mexico St. W 73-72 52%    
  Mar 03, 2023 175   @ Sam Houston St. L 69-70 46%    
Projected Record 15 - 12 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.8 3.8 2.9 1.7 0.5 13.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.9 3.9 3.3 1.4 0.2 0.0 11.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.0 4.2 2.8 0.7 0.0 10.0 3rd
4th 0.1 1.9 4.2 2.7 0.6 0.0 9.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.4 4.1 3.1 0.5 0.0 9.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 3.6 3.3 0.7 0.0 8.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.8 3.7 0.9 0.0 8.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.1 3.5 1.2 0.1 7.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.3 1.5 0.1 0.0 6.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.4 1.5 0.2 5.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.1 1.3 0.2 0.0 4.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.4 0.9 0.2 0.0 3.8 12th
13th 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.2 13th
Total 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.8 3.1 4.5 5.9 7.7 9.0 10.2 10.5 10.4 9.6 8.6 6.9 5.3 3.2 1.7 0.5 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
17-1 99.9% 1.7    1.6 0.1
16-2 93.0% 2.9    2.5 0.4 0.0
15-3 71.9% 3.8    2.4 1.3 0.2
14-4 41.2% 2.8    1.2 1.2 0.4 0.0
13-5 14.6% 1.3    0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.1% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 13.2% 13.2 8.4 3.5 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.5% 77.5% 50.4% 27.1% 7.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 54.7%
17-1 1.7% 69.2% 52.2% 17.0% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 35.7%
16-2 3.2% 44.0% 36.9% 7.0% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.8 11.1%
15-3 5.3% 33.8% 30.6% 3.2% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0 3.5 4.6%
14-4 6.9% 23.1% 22.3% 0.8% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 5.3 1.0%
13-5 8.6% 17.7% 17.7% 0.0% 13.3 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 7.1 0.0%
12-6 9.6% 13.3% 13.3% 13.7 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 8.3
11-7 10.4% 9.2% 9.2% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 9.4
10-8 10.5% 6.7% 6.7% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 9.8
9-9 10.2% 6.0% 6.0% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 9.6
8-10 9.0% 4.3% 4.3% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 8.6
7-11 7.7% 2.7% 2.7% 15.9 0.0 0.2 7.5
6-12 5.9% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.1 5.8
5-13 4.5% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 0.1 4.5
4-14 3.1% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 3.1
3-15 1.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.8
2-16 0.8% 0.8
1-17 0.4% 0.4
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 12.2% 11.3% 0.9% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.2 2.6 2.5 2.1 1.4 1.3 87.8 1.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 90.6% 4.4 6.3 3.1 16.4 31.4 20.1 3.8 3.1 3.1 3.1