Preseason Rankings
Cal St. Bakersfield
Big West
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating-7.1#284
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace62.6#328
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-5.0#309
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-2.1#242
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.4% 6.0% 2.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.0 15.0
.500 or above 20.8% 56.0% 18.7%
.500 or above in Conference 25.7% 53.6% 24.0%
Conference Champion 1.9% 6.5% 1.7%
Last Place in Conference 22.9% 6.6% 23.9%
First Four0.8% 0.6% 0.8%
First Round2.0% 5.9% 1.8%
Second Round0.1% 0.4% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Utah (Away) - 5.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 32 - 82 - 12
Quad 48 - 711 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2022 84   @ Utah L 58-75 6%    
  Nov 16, 2022 342   @ Idaho W 71-68 59%    
  Nov 22, 2022 344   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 70-64 69%    
  Nov 23, 2022 148   @ UTEP L 59-70 17%    
  Nov 25, 2022 350   Alcorn St. W 70-63 73%    
  Dec 03, 2022 257   @ Dartmouth L 60-65 34%    
  Dec 06, 2022 210   @ San Jose St. L 61-69 24%    
  Dec 17, 2022 147   Abilene Christian L 67-72 33%    
  Dec 20, 2022 99   Fresno St. L 55-65 22%    
  Dec 29, 2022 207   @ UC Riverside L 59-68 24%    
  Dec 31, 2022 143   UC Irvine L 59-65 33%    
  Jan 05, 2023 273   Cal Poly W 63-61 56%    
  Jan 07, 2023 232   @ UC Davis L 61-68 28%    
  Jan 11, 2023 129   UC Santa Barbara L 62-69 29%    
  Jan 14, 2023 264   UC San Diego W 69-68 55%    
  Jan 16, 2023 191   @ Cal St. Fullerton L 60-69 23%    
  Jan 21, 2023 129   @ UC Santa Barbara L 59-72 15%    
  Jan 26, 2023 232   UC Davis L 64-65 47%    
  Jan 29, 2023 157   @ Hawaii L 58-69 20%    
  Feb 02, 2023 207   UC Riverside L 62-65 42%    
  Feb 04, 2023 264   @ UC San Diego L 66-71 36%    
  Feb 09, 2023 311   Cal St. Northridge W 67-62 65%    
  Feb 11, 2023 188   Long Beach St. L 69-73 39%    
  Feb 15, 2023 273   @ Cal Poly L 60-64 38%    
  Feb 20, 2023 157   Hawaii L 61-66 35%    
  Feb 23, 2023 311   @ Cal St. Northridge L 64-65 46%    
  Feb 25, 2023 191   Cal St. Fullerton L 63-66 39%    
  Mar 02, 2023 188   @ Long Beach St. L 66-76 23%    
  Mar 04, 2023 143   @ UC Irvine L 56-68 19%    
Projected Record 11 - 18 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 3.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.1 1.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 4.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.8 2.1 0.9 0.2 0.0 5.5 4th
5th 0.1 0.8 2.5 2.5 0.9 0.1 0.0 7.0 5th
6th 0.2 1.1 3.1 2.8 1.0 0.1 0.0 8.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.8 4.1 3.4 1.0 0.1 10.6 7th
8th 0.1 0.7 2.7 4.5 3.4 0.9 0.1 12.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.4 4.1 4.9 3.1 0.7 0.1 14.5 9th
10th 0.1 0.9 3.1 5.1 4.5 2.2 0.6 0.0 16.4 10th
11th 1.1 3.0 4.4 4.2 2.5 0.9 0.2 0.0 16.3 11th
Total 1.1 3.1 5.3 7.5 9.1 10.1 10.2 10.1 9.5 8.3 7.0 5.8 4.4 3.1 2.2 1.4 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
18-2 95.4% 0.2    0.2 0.0
17-3 83.0% 0.4    0.3 0.1 0.0
16-4 54.2% 0.5    0.3 0.2 0.0
15-5 30.8% 0.4    0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
14-6 10.8% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.9% 1.9 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 57.1% 42.9% 14.3% 7.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 25.0%
19-1 0.1% 53.5% 45.5% 8.0% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.7%
18-2 0.2% 47.0% 47.0% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-3 0.4% 25.3% 24.7% 0.6% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7%
16-4 0.9% 18.9% 18.9% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.8
15-5 1.4% 15.8% 15.8% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.2
14-6 2.2% 10.9% 10.9% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.9
13-7 3.1% 7.5% 7.5% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 2.9
12-8 4.4% 5.8% 5.8% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 4.2
11-9 5.8% 3.9% 3.9% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 5.6
10-10 7.0% 4.0% 4.0% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 6.7
9-11 8.3% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.0 0.2 8.1
8-12 9.5% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 0.1 9.4
7-13 10.1% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 10.0
6-14 10.2% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 10.2
5-15 10.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 10.1
4-16 9.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 9.1
3-17 7.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 7.5
2-18 5.3% 5.3
1-19 3.1% 3.1
0-20 1.1% 1.1
Total 100% 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 1.1 97.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%