Preseason Rankings
UC Santa Barbara
Big West
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+2.9#129
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace64.7#269
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+2.5#113
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.4#158
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.3% 0.7% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.7% 1.6% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 23.6% 32.2% 17.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.2% 2.8% 0.2%
Average Seed 12.8 12.2 13.7
.500 or above 84.7% 95.0% 77.7%
.500 or above in Conference 85.6% 93.3% 80.4%
Conference Champion 29.4% 40.8% 21.5%
Last Place in Conference 1.1% 0.3% 1.7%
First Four1.4% 1.4% 1.4%
First Round23.0% 31.5% 17.1%
Second Round4.4% 7.3% 2.3%
Sweet Sixteen1.3% 2.3% 0.6%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.6% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Fresno St. (Neutral) - 40.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 21 - 2
Quad 35 - 46 - 6
Quad 414 - 320 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2022 99   Fresno St. L 61-64 41%    
  Nov 18, 2022 320   @ Northern Arizona W 73-63 81%    
  Nov 21, 2022 328   Hampton W 80-64 93%    
  Nov 23, 2022 309   North Alabama W 78-63 90%    
  Nov 29, 2022 178   @ Duquesne W 70-69 51%    
  Dec 03, 2022 228   Pacific W 75-66 77%    
  Dec 10, 2022 194   @ Pepperdine W 74-73 53%    
  Dec 17, 2022 278   @ Portland St. W 76-70 70%    
  Dec 21, 2022 183   Appalachian St. W 68-65 61%    
  Dec 29, 2022 191   @ Cal St. Fullerton W 69-68 52%    
  Dec 31, 2022 264   UC San Diego W 77-66 82%    
  Jan 07, 2023 273   @ Cal Poly W 69-63 68%    
  Jan 11, 2023 284   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 69-62 71%    
  Jan 14, 2023 207   UC Riverside W 71-64 72%    
  Jan 16, 2023 143   @ UC Irvine L 65-67 45%    
  Jan 19, 2023 311   Cal St. Northridge W 76-61 88%    
  Jan 21, 2023 284   Cal St. Bakersfield W 72-59 85%    
  Jan 27, 2023 157   @ Hawaii L 67-68 48%    
  Feb 02, 2023 273   Cal Poly W 72-60 83%    
  Feb 04, 2023 311   @ Cal St. Northridge W 73-64 76%    
  Feb 09, 2023 188   @ Long Beach St. W 76-75 52%    
  Feb 11, 2023 232   UC Davis W 73-64 76%    
  Feb 15, 2023 143   UC Irvine W 68-64 63%    
  Feb 18, 2023 207   @ UC Riverside W 68-67 54%    
  Feb 20, 2023 191   Cal St. Fullerton W 72-65 70%    
  Feb 23, 2023 188   Long Beach St. W 78-72 70%    
  Feb 25, 2023 264   @ UC San Diego W 74-69 66%    
  Mar 02, 2023 232   @ UC Davis W 70-67 59%    
  Mar 04, 2023 157   Hawaii W 70-65 66%    
Projected Record 20 - 9 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.0 3.0 5.6 7.2 6.4 4.2 1.7 29.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.9 4.4 5.8 4.1 1.7 0.3 18.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.4 4.6 4.1 1.9 0.4 0.0 13.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.5 3.9 2.8 0.9 0.1 0.0 10.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.2 3.5 1.9 0.4 0.0 8.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 1.7 2.6 1.3 0.2 0.0 6.4 6th
7th 0.1 0.4 1.5 1.9 0.8 0.1 0.0 4.7 7th
8th 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.3 0.5 0.1 3.5 8th
9th 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.0 2.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.7 2.5 3.6 4.7 6.1 7.9 8.8 9.9 10.5 10.8 10.1 9.0 6.7 4.2 1.7 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 1.7    1.7
19-1 100.0% 4.2    4.1 0.1
18-2 95.1% 6.4    5.7 0.7 0.0
17-3 80.4% 7.2    5.5 1.7 0.1
16-4 55.5% 5.6    3.3 2.0 0.3 0.0
15-5 27.9% 3.0    1.2 1.3 0.5 0.0
14-6 9.7% 1.0    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.7% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 29.4% 29.4 21.8 6.2 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 1.7% 85.3% 71.1% 14.2% 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 49.1%
19-1 4.2% 68.1% 58.6% 9.5% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.8 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.4 22.9%
18-2 6.7% 52.2% 49.3% 3.0% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.5 0.9 0.3 0.0 3.2 5.8%
17-3 9.0% 40.7% 40.2% 0.5% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 5.3 0.8%
16-4 10.1% 32.4% 32.3% 0.2% 13.2 0.1 0.7 1.3 0.9 0.3 0.0 6.8 0.3%
15-5 10.8% 25.0% 25.0% 0.0% 13.7 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.0 0.5 0.1 8.1 0.0%
14-6 10.5% 19.8% 19.8% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.1 8.4
13-7 9.9% 15.0% 15.0% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.3 8.4
12-8 8.8% 11.8% 11.8% 15.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.3 7.8
11-9 7.9% 8.4% 8.4% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 7.2
10-10 6.1% 6.7% 6.7% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 5.7
9-11 4.7% 5.1% 5.1% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 4.5
8-12 3.6% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.0 0.1 3.5
7-13 2.5% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.1 2.4
6-14 1.7% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 1.6
5-15 1.0% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 1.0
4-16 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 0.6
3-17 0.2% 0.2
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 23.6% 22.7% 0.9% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 2.1 4.9 5.4 4.6 2.8 1.8 76.4 1.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 96.6% 5.1 1.7 2.7 13.3 21.4 24.8 14.8 8.0 2.6 3.0 1.3 2.1 0.8