Preseason Rankings
Hawaii
Big West
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+0.6#157
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace64.1#289
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-0.7#200
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+1.3#136
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.7% 14.7% 3.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.3 13.3 14.8
.500 or above 80.9% 81.1% 29.0%
.500 or above in Conference 75.0% 75.2% 32.2%
Conference Champion 17.9% 17.9% 3.0%
Last Place in Conference 2.7% 2.7% 11.7%
First Four1.1% 1.1% 1.8%
First Round14.1% 14.2% 1.8%
Second Round2.1% 2.1% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Mississippi Valley (Home) - 99.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 21 - 2
Quad 34 - 54 - 7
Quad 414 - 418 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2022 363   Mississippi Valley W 85-57 99.6%   
  Nov 13, 2022 185   Eastern Washington W 74-70 64%    
  Nov 15, 2022 146   Yale W 69-67 58%    
  Nov 24, 2022 275   Sacramento St. W 68-61 72%    
  Dec 01, 2022 343   Texas A&M - Commerce W 75-59 92%    
  Dec 07, 2022 105   UNLV L 64-68 37%    
  Dec 11, 2022 291   St. Francis (PA) W 74-63 83%    
  Dec 22, 2022 194   Pepperdine W 74-69 65%    
  Dec 30, 2022 232   UC Davis W 70-63 71%    
  Dec 31, 2022 273   Cal Poly W 69-59 78%    
  Jan 05, 2023 264   @ UC San Diego W 71-68 60%    
  Jan 07, 2023 191   @ Cal St. Fullerton L 65-67 45%    
  Jan 15, 2023 188   Long Beach St. W 75-71 63%    
  Jan 17, 2023 311   Cal St. Northridge W 73-60 84%    
  Jan 19, 2023 143   @ UC Irvine L 62-66 38%    
  Jan 21, 2023 207   @ UC Riverside L 65-66 47%    
  Jan 27, 2023 129   UC Santa Barbara W 68-67 52%    
  Jan 29, 2023 284   Cal St. Bakersfield W 69-58 80%    
  Feb 02, 2023 232   @ UC Davis W 67-66 52%    
  Feb 04, 2023 273   @ Cal Poly W 66-62 62%    
  Feb 10, 2023 264   UC San Diego W 74-65 76%    
  Feb 12, 2023 191   Cal St. Fullerton W 68-64 63%    
  Feb 18, 2023 188   @ Long Beach St. L 72-74 44%    
  Feb 20, 2023 284   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 66-61 65%    
  Feb 24, 2023 207   UC Riverside W 68-63 66%    
  Feb 26, 2023 143   UC Irvine W 65-63 57%    
  Mar 02, 2023 311   @ Cal St. Northridge W 70-63 70%    
  Mar 04, 2023 129   @ UC Santa Barbara L 65-70 34%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.3 3.9 4.5 3.6 2.0 0.6 17.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.9 4.1 4.7 3.1 1.2 0.2 15.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.4 4.8 3.9 1.6 0.3 0.0 13.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 2.9 4.6 2.9 0.8 0.1 12.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.8 2.9 3.8 2.3 0.4 0.0 10.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.8 3.5 1.6 0.3 0.0 9.0 6th
7th 0.1 0.7 2.5 2.7 1.1 0.2 0.0 7.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.9 1.9 0.7 0.1 5.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.5 1.5 0.4 0.0 4.4 9th
10th 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 3.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.5 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.3 3.2 4.5 5.5 7.1 8.3 9.1 9.9 10.2 9.6 8.7 7.2 5.8 3.8 2.0 0.6 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
19-1 100.0% 2.0    1.9 0.1
18-2 94.6% 3.6    3.1 0.4 0.0
17-3 78.4% 4.5    3.4 1.1 0.1
16-4 53.4% 3.9    2.2 1.4 0.2 0.0
15-5 26.4% 2.3    0.8 1.0 0.4 0.0
14-6 8.5% 0.8    0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 17.9% 17.9 12.4 4.4 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.6% 86.9% 67.6% 19.3% 8.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 59.6%
19-1 2.0% 63.6% 53.3% 10.3% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.7 22.1%
18-2 3.8% 46.4% 43.9% 2.5% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.0 4.5%
17-3 5.8% 36.5% 36.1% 0.4% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 3.7 0.6%
16-4 7.2% 27.6% 27.5% 0.0% 13.2 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 5.2 0.0%
15-5 8.7% 20.7% 20.7% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.3 0.0 6.9
14-6 9.6% 15.9% 15.9% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 8.0
13-7 10.2% 12.0% 12.0% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 8.9
12-8 9.9% 9.2% 9.2% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 9.0
11-9 9.1% 7.2% 7.2% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 8.4
10-10 8.3% 4.8% 4.8% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 7.9
9-11 7.1% 3.6% 3.6% 15.9 0.0 0.2 6.8
8-12 5.5% 2.1% 2.1% 15.9 0.0 0.1 5.4
7-13 4.5% 1.7% 1.7% 15.9 0.0 0.1 4.4
6-14 3.2% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 3.1
5-15 2.3% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 2.3
4-16 1.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 1.3
3-17 0.7% 0.7
2-18 0.3% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 0.3
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 14.7% 14.2% 0.4% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.9 2.4 3.4 3.2 2.3 1.6 85.3 0.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 93.9% 6.4 0.8 8.4 12.9 16.3 19.5 5.5 9.9 7.0 6.8 3.8 3.0