Preseason Rankings
UNLV
Mountain West
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+4.7#105
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace66.3#232
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+1.7#137
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+3.0#94
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.0% 1.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 2.0% 2.2% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.1% 15.1% 3.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 8.5% 9.3% 0.9%
Average Seed 9.8 9.7 12.4
.500 or above 61.9% 65.4% 27.3%
.500 or above in Conference 47.0% 49.4% 23.3%
Conference Champion 5.0% 5.4% 0.8%
Last Place in Conference 8.4% 7.0% 21.3%
First Four2.7% 2.9% 1.1%
First Round12.8% 13.8% 3.2%
Second Round5.3% 5.8% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen1.6% 1.8% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.6% 0.6% 0.1%
Final Four0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern (Home) - 90.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 4
Quad 22 - 43 - 9
Quad 35 - 38 - 12
Quad 47 - 115 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 279   Southern W 77-63 91%    
  Nov 12, 2022 348   Incarnate Word W 78-57 97%    
  Nov 15, 2022 28   Dayton L 62-67 33%    
  Nov 18, 2022 255   High Point W 74-62 86%    
  Nov 22, 2022 138   Southern Illinois W 64-61 60%    
  Dec 03, 2022 176   @ San Diego W 68-66 57%    
  Dec 07, 2022 157   Hawaii W 68-64 63%    
  Dec 10, 2022 71   Washington St. L 65-69 39%    
  Dec 17, 2022 83   San Francisco W 72-71 52%    
  Dec 22, 2022 299   Southern Miss W 77-61 90%    
  Dec 28, 2022 210   @ San Jose St. W 69-66 61%    
  Dec 31, 2022 23   San Diego St. L 62-68 31%    
  Jan 07, 2023 110   @ New Mexico L 75-77 42%    
  Jan 11, 2023 77   Boise St. L 65-66 50%    
  Jan 14, 2023 78   Colorado St. W 69-68 50%    
  Jan 17, 2023 76   @ Utah St. L 65-71 31%    
  Jan 21, 2023 99   @ Fresno St. L 60-64 39%    
  Jan 24, 2023 62   Wyoming L 68-69 46%    
  Jan 28, 2023 126   Nevada W 76-71 64%    
  Jan 31, 2023 78   @ Colorado St. L 65-71 32%    
  Feb 03, 2023 99   Fresno St. W 63-61 57%    
  Feb 08, 2023 62   @ Wyoming L 65-72 28%    
  Feb 11, 2023 23   @ San Diego St. L 59-71 17%    
  Feb 14, 2023 210   San Jose St. W 72-63 77%    
  Feb 19, 2023 77   @ Boise St. L 63-69 31%    
  Feb 24, 2023 231   Air Force W 69-58 80%    
  Mar 01, 2023 76   Utah St. L 68-69 49%    
  Mar 04, 2023 126   @ Nevada L 73-74 46%    
Projected Record 15 - 13 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.2 1.5 1.1 0.4 0.1 5.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.6 2.4 1.9 0.6 0.1 6.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 2.5 3.3 1.7 0.3 0.0 8.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 3.3 3.7 1.5 0.2 0.0 9.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 3.5 4.2 1.5 0.2 0.0 10.3 5th
6th 0.1 1.1 4.1 4.5 1.4 0.1 11.4 6th
7th 0.1 1.4 4.2 4.5 1.4 0.1 0.0 11.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.4 4.1 1.3 0.1 0.0 11.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 2.2 4.1 3.2 0.9 0.1 11.1 9th
10th 0.2 0.9 2.4 3.1 1.8 0.5 0.0 8.9 10th
11th 0.3 0.9 1.3 1.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 4.7 11th
Total 0.3 1.1 2.3 4.3 6.3 7.8 9.5 10.4 11.0 10.4 9.6 8.3 6.8 4.9 3.4 2.1 1.1 0.4 0.1 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
16-2 95.5% 1.1    0.9 0.2
15-3 70.8% 1.5    1.0 0.5 0.1
14-4 36.3% 1.2    0.5 0.6 0.1 0.0
13-5 12.6% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0
12-6 1.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.0% 5.0 3.0 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 34.5% 65.5% 2.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.4% 98.8% 40.2% 58.5% 3.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.9%
16-2 1.1% 94.3% 28.2% 66.1% 5.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 92.0%
15-3 2.1% 86.3% 23.6% 62.7% 7.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 82.0%
14-4 3.4% 67.9% 19.5% 48.4% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.1 60.1%
13-5 4.9% 49.4% 14.2% 35.2% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.5 41.0%
12-6 6.8% 30.5% 11.6% 19.0% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.4 0.0 0.0 4.7 21.5%
11-7 8.3% 16.8% 8.7% 8.0% 11.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 6.9 8.8%
10-8 9.6% 9.1% 6.5% 2.6% 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 8.7 2.8%
9-9 10.4% 5.9% 5.5% 0.4% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 9.8 0.4%
8-10 11.0% 3.6% 3.6% 0.1% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 10.6 0.1%
7-11 10.4% 2.8% 2.8% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 10.1
6-12 9.5% 1.9% 1.9% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9.3
5-13 7.8% 1.3% 1.3% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 7.7
4-14 6.3% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 6.2
3-15 4.3% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 4.3
2-16 2.3% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 2.3
1-17 1.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.1
0-18 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 14.1% 6.1% 8.0% 9.8 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.5 2.2 2.9 1.7 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.6 85.9 8.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.7 45.2 47.9 6.8