IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
San Francisco
West Coast
2022-23

Overall
Predictive Rating	+7.1	#83
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	71.4	#92
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+4.1	#73

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+3.0	#95

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.2%	0.2%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.6%	0.6%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	1.9%	2.2%	0.1%
Top 6 Seed	4.0%	4.4%	0.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid	20.9%	22.7%	5.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	15.1%	16.6%	2.4%
Average Seed	9.2	9.1	11.2

.500 or above	81.3%	84.7%	51.3%
.500 or above in Conference	69.4%	72.1%	46.0%
Conference Champion	5.0%	5.5%	1.3%
Last Place in Conference	3.3%	2.7%	8.7%

First Four	4.2%	4.5%	1.5%
First Round	18.8%	20.5%	4.5%
Second Round	9.1%	9.9%	1.4%
Sweet Sixteen	3.3%	3.6%	0.4%
Elite Eight	1.3%	1.5%	0.1%
Final Four	0.5%	0.6%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.2%	0.2%	0.0%
National Champion	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%

Next Game: Texas Southern (Home) - 89.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 3	0 - 3
Quad 1b	1 - 2	1 - 4
Quad 2	2 - 3	3 - 7
Quad 3	5 - 2	9 - 10
Quad 4	9 - 1	17 - 11

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 07, 2022	241	Texas Southern	W	79-66	90%
Nov 10, 2022	273	Cal Poly	W	76-60	93%
Nov 16, 2022	99	@ Fresno St.	L	65-66	45%
Nov 21, 2022	132	Northern Iowa	W	76-71	66%
Nov 25, 2022	81	@ Davidson	L	70-73	40%
Nov 30, 2022	261	Arkansas Little Rock	W	80-65	90%
Dec 04, 2022	76	Utah St.	L	72-73	47%
Dec 07, 2022	280	Merrimack	W	73-56	92%
Dec 17, 2022	105	@ UNLV	L	71-72	48%
Dec 19, 2022	248	Texas Arlington	W	77-63	87%
Dec 21, 2022	61	Arizona St.	W	72-71	53%
Dec 22, 2022	327	Hartford	W	83-62	95%
Dec 29, 2022	127	@ Santa Clara	W	79-78	54%
Dec 31, 2022	176	San Diego	W	75-65	80%
Jan 05, 2023	1	Gonzaga	L	77-88	19%
Jan 07, 2023	155	@ Loyola Marymount	W	75-72	60%
Jan 12, 2023	154	@ Portland	W	78-75	60%
Jan 14, 2023	44	St. Mary's	L	66-67	47%
Jan 19, 2023	228	Pacific	W	80-67	85%
Jan 21, 2023	55	BYU	W	75-74	52%
Jan 28, 2023	176	@ San Diego	W	72-68	64%
Feb 02, 2023	44	@ St. Mary's	L	63-70	30%
Feb 04, 2023	127	Santa Clara	W	82-75	71%
Feb 09, 2023	1	@ Gonzaga	L	74-91	9%
Feb 11, 2023	194	Pepperdine	W	83-72	81%
Feb 16, 2023	228	@ Pacific	W	77-70	71%
Feb 23, 2023	154	Portland	W	81-72	77%
Feb 25, 2023	55	@ BYU	L	72-78	34%
Projected Record						17 - 11	9 - 7

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected West Coast Finish

	0-16	1-15	2-14	3-13	4-12	5-11	6-10	7-9	8-8	9-7	10-6	11-5	12-4	13-3	14-2	15-1	16-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.4	1.3	1.8	1.1	0.3		5.0	1st
2nd										0.1	1.3	3.9	6.0	4.4	1.2				16.8	2nd
3rd								0.0	0.3	2.6	6.7	6.3	2.6	0.2					18.7	3rd
4th							0.0	0.5	3.6	7.1	4.7	1.1	0.1						17.0	4th
5th						0.0	0.5	3.4	6.2	3.2	0.4	0.0							13.7	5th
6th					0.0	0.3	2.9	4.8	2.1	0.2	0.0								10.5	6th
7th					0.3	2.2	3.7	1.4	0.1	0.0									7.8	7th
8th			0.0	0.3	1.6	2.6	0.9	0.1											5.4	8th
9th		0.0	0.3	1.1	1.4	0.5	0.0	0.0											3.5	9th
10th	0.0	0.4	0.6	0.5	0.2	0.0													1.7	10th

Total	0.0	0.4	1.0	1.9	3.5	5.7	8.0	10.2	12.3	13.2	13.1	11.3	9.1	5.9	3.0	1.1	0.3			Total

West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
16-0	100.0%	0.3		0.3
15-1	100.0%	1.1		0.9	0.2
14-2	59.6%	1.8		1.0	0.8	0.0
13-3	22.1%	1.3		0.4	0.7	0.2	0.0
12-4	4.8%	0.4		0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0
11-5	0.4%	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0
10-6	0.0%
9-7	0.0%
8-8	0.0%

Total	5.0%	5.0		2.7	1.9	0.4	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
16-0	0.3%		100.0%	37.7%	62.3%	2.3		0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0												100.0%
15-1	1.1%		97.5%	28.6%	68.9%	4.2		0.1	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0						0.0		96.5%
14-2	3.0%		87.9%	20.8%	67.1%	6.4		0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0				0.4		84.7%
13-3	5.9%		74.1%	16.6%	57.4%	8.3			0.0	0.0	0.2	0.3	0.4	0.5	0.6	0.8	0.8	0.5	0.2	0.0				1.5		68.9%
12-4	9.1%		52.8%	12.7%	40.0%	9.6				0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.4	0.8	1.2	1.3	0.4	0.0				4.3		45.9%
11-5	11.3%		30.6%	9.1%	21.4%	10.5						0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.4	0.8	1.4	0.5	0.1	0.0	0.0		7.8		23.6%
10-6	13.1%		16.1%	6.9%	9.2%	11.1								0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.8	0.6	0.1	0.0	0.0		11.0		9.9%
9-7	13.2%		7.6%	5.4%	2.2%	12.0										0.0	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0		12.2		2.4%
8-8	12.3%		4.1%	3.5%	0.6%	12.7									0.0		0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	11.8		0.7%
7-9	10.2%		2.9%	2.8%	0.1%	14.0												0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.1	0.0	9.9		0.1%
6-10	8.0%		1.9%	1.9%		15.2													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	7.9
5-11	5.7%		1.5%	1.5%		15.7														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	5.6
4-12	3.5%		1.1%	1.1%		16.0																	0.0	3.4
3-13	1.9%		0.6%	0.6%		16.0																	0.0	1.9
2-14	1.0%		1.1%	1.1%		16.0																	0.0	1.0
1-15	0.4%																							0.4
0-16	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		20.9%	6.9%	14.0%	9.2		0.2	0.3	0.5	0.9	0.9	1.1	1.3	1.6	2.4	3.5	4.5	2.1	0.7	0.3	0.2	0.3	79.1		15.1%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.1%	100.0%	1.6	53.1	33.6	13.3