Preseason Rankings
Merrimack
Northeast
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating-6.8#280
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace59.0#353
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-6.4#336
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-0.3#182
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.0% 35.8% 15.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 14.5 15.4
.500 or above 44.8% 84.1% 43.6%
.500 or above in Conference 73.6% 93.7% 73.0%
Conference Champion 19.5% 41.6% 18.8%
Last Place in Conference 3.4% 0.1% 3.5%
First Four6.1% 4.2% 6.1%
First Round12.6% 33.7% 12.0%
Second Round0.3% 1.4% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.4% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: St. John's (Away) - 3.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 31 - 41 - 8
Quad 413 - 814 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 49   @ St. John's L 60-80 3%    
  Nov 16, 2022 235   Troy L 60-64 37%    
  Nov 18, 2022 170   @ Montana L 56-66 20%    
  Nov 19, 2022 357   St. Thomas W 68-56 85%    
  Nov 23, 2022 50   @ Providence L 51-71 5%    
  Nov 26, 2022 117   @ Bradley L 56-69 13%    
  Nov 30, 2022 238   @ Umass Lowell L 59-66 29%    
  Dec 02, 2022 233   Boston University L 61-62 48%    
  Dec 04, 2022 104   Vermont L 57-66 24%    
  Dec 07, 2022 83   @ San Francisco L 56-73 8%    
  Dec 11, 2022 337   Maine W 62-54 74%    
  Dec 18, 2022 274   @ Bucknell L 64-68 39%    
  Dec 29, 2022 319   @ Fairleigh Dickinson W 68-67 51%    
  Dec 31, 2022 252   @ Wagner L 58-64 33%    
  Jan 05, 2023 283   Sacred Heart W 67-64 61%    
  Jan 07, 2023 314   St. Francis Brooklyn W 66-61 67%    
  Jan 14, 2023 359   @ Stonehill W 66-56 79%    
  Jan 16, 2023 252   Wagner W 62-61 51%    
  Jan 22, 2023 314   @ St. Francis Brooklyn L 63-64 49%    
  Jan 26, 2023 349   @ Central Connecticut St. W 64-60 63%    
  Jan 28, 2023 319   Fairleigh Dickinson W 71-65 68%    
  Feb 02, 2023 304   LIU Brooklyn W 70-65 64%    
  Feb 04, 2023 291   St. Francis (PA) W 66-62 63%    
  Feb 09, 2023 359   Stonehill W 69-53 89%    
  Feb 11, 2023 291   @ St. Francis (PA) L 63-65 44%    
  Feb 16, 2023 327   @ Hartford W 63-62 53%    
  Feb 18, 2023 283   @ Sacred Heart L 64-67 42%    
  Feb 23, 2023 349   Central Connecticut St. W 67-57 79%    
  Feb 25, 2023 304   @ LIU Brooklyn L 67-68 46%    
Projected Record 14 - 15 9 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.4 5.5 5.2 3.0 1.0 19.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.5 5.6 5.4 2.4 0.4 16.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.2 6.3 4.2 1.0 0.1 15.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 3.3 6.1 3.2 0.5 0.0 13.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.4 5.1 2.2 0.2 11.6 5th
6th 0.1 0.8 3.1 3.9 1.5 0.1 9.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.5 2.6 0.9 0.1 7.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.7 1.2 0.4 0.0 4.7 8th
9th 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.9 9th
Total 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.8 3.1 4.6 6.8 8.8 10.4 12.0 12.4 11.5 9.9 7.9 5.5 3.0 1.0 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 1.0    1.0
15-1 100.0% 3.0    2.8 0.1
14-2 93.5% 5.2    4.3 0.9 0.0
13-3 68.8% 5.5    3.3 1.9 0.2
12-4 34.8% 3.4    1.2 1.7 0.5 0.1
11-5 11.0% 1.3    0.2 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0
10-6 1.4% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 19.5% 19.5 12.8 5.1 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 1.0% 74.9% 74.9% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3
15-1 3.0% 62.9% 62.9% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.4 1.1
14-2 5.5% 49.1% 49.1% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 0.9 2.8
13-3 7.9% 36.2% 36.2% 15.3 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.5 5.1
12-4 9.9% 25.8% 25.8% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.8 7.3
11-5 11.5% 18.3% 18.3% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.6 9.4
10-6 12.4% 11.6% 11.6% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.3 10.9
9-7 12.0% 7.4% 7.4% 16.0 0.0 0.9 11.1
8-8 10.4% 4.2% 4.2% 16.0 0.4 9.9
7-9 8.8% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.2 8.5
6-10 6.8% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.1 6.7
5-11 4.6% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 4.6
4-12 3.1% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 3.1
3-13 1.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.8
2-14 0.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 0.9
1-15 0.4% 0.4
0-16 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 16.0% 16.0% 0.0% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.9 4.0 9.3 84.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%