Preseason Rankings
Bradley
Missouri Valley
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+3.7#117
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.3#169
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+1.3#147
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.3#110
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.4% 1.4% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 1.0% 3.1% 0.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.9% 24.5% 10.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 3.3% 9.1% 1.6%
Average Seed 11.4 10.3 12.3
.500 or above 69.3% 88.7% 62.8%
.500 or above in Conference 68.9% 84.3% 63.7%
Conference Champion 12.9% 22.7% 9.6%
Last Place in Conference 2.5% 0.7% 3.1%
First Four1.6% 2.6% 1.2%
First Round13.2% 23.3% 9.8%
Second Round3.7% 8.5% 2.1%
Sweet Sixteen1.1% 2.8% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.4% 1.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.4% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Utah St. (Away) - 25.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 32 - 6
Quad 35 - 47 - 10
Quad 410 - 217 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2022 76   @ Utah St. L 66-73 25%    
  Nov 15, 2022 226   Eastern Michigan W 79-69 80%    
  Nov 19, 2022 281   Southeast Missouri St. W 84-70 88%    
  Nov 22, 2022 21   Auburn L 69-79 19%    
  Nov 26, 2022 280   Merrimack W 69-56 87%    
  Nov 30, 2022 132   Northern Iowa W 73-69 64%    
  Dec 03, 2022 131   @ Missouri St. L 71-73 44%    
  Dec 06, 2022 326   @ SIU Edwardsville W 77-66 81%    
  Dec 17, 2022 11   @ Arkansas L 65-81 10%    
  Dec 19, 2022 359   Stonehill W 82-56 98%    
  Dec 22, 2022 119   Akron W 66-63 59%    
  Dec 28, 2022 115   @ Belmont L 72-75 40%    
  Dec 31, 2022 247   Illinois-Chicago W 78-68 80%    
  Jan 04, 2023 114   @ Murray St. L 68-71 40%    
  Jan 07, 2023 212   Valparaiso W 72-64 75%    
  Jan 11, 2023 313   Evansville W 73-57 90%    
  Jan 14, 2023 74   @ Drake L 66-74 28%    
  Jan 18, 2023 161   @ Indiana St. W 73-72 51%    
  Jan 21, 2023 115   Belmont W 75-72 59%    
  Jan 25, 2023 180   Illinois St. W 76-69 71%    
  Jan 29, 2023 247   @ Illinois-Chicago W 75-71 64%    
  Feb 01, 2023 138   Southern Illinois W 66-61 64%    
  Feb 04, 2023 132   @ Northern Iowa L 70-72 45%    
  Feb 08, 2023 180   @ Illinois St. W 73-72 53%    
  Feb 11, 2023 114   Murray St. W 71-68 59%    
  Feb 15, 2023 131   Missouri St. W 74-70 62%    
  Feb 19, 2023 138   @ Southern Illinois L 63-64 47%    
  Feb 22, 2023 212   @ Valparaiso W 69-67 58%    
  Feb 26, 2023 74   Drake L 69-71 45%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 3.0 3.4 2.5 1.3 0.4 12.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.2 4.0 2.6 0.9 0.2 12.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.8 3.9 3.7 1.6 0.3 0.0 11.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.8 4.3 3.4 1.1 0.1 11.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.1 3.1 0.8 0.1 10.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.7 3.9 2.7 0.7 0.0 9.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.5 3.6 2.5 0.7 0.0 8.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.5 3.0 2.3 0.5 0.0 0.0 7.6 8th
9th 0.1 0.4 1.4 2.5 1.8 0.4 0.0 6.6 9th
10th 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.7 1.1 0.3 0.0 5.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 3.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 1.4 12th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.8 2.9 4.0 5.6 6.8 8.2 9.0 9.5 10.1 9.5 8.5 7.4 5.9 4.4 2.6 1.3 0.4 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
19-1 100.0% 1.3    1.3 0.0
18-2 93.0% 2.5    2.1 0.4 0.0
17-3 77.7% 3.4    2.4 0.9 0.1
16-4 50.6% 3.0    1.6 1.1 0.3 0.0
15-5 22.0% 1.6    0.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-6 6.4% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 12.9% 12.9 8.5 3.3 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.4% 95.1% 53.4% 41.7% 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 89.4%
19-1 1.3% 82.2% 47.8% 34.4% 7.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 65.8%
18-2 2.6% 67.2% 35.9% 31.3% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.9 48.8%
17-3 4.4% 47.8% 29.0% 18.7% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.3 26.4%
16-4 5.9% 31.7% 24.4% 7.2% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 4.0 9.6%
15-5 7.4% 20.4% 17.7% 2.7% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 5.9 3.3%
14-6 8.5% 15.6% 15.1% 0.6% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 7.2 0.7%
13-7 9.5% 12.6% 12.5% 0.1% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 8.3 0.1%
12-8 10.1% 8.8% 8.8% 0.0% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 9.2 0.0%
11-9 9.5% 6.3% 6.3% 14.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 8.9
10-10 9.0% 4.8% 4.8% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 8.6
9-11 8.2% 3.7% 3.7% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 7.9
8-12 6.8% 2.8% 2.8% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 6.6
7-13 5.6% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 0.1 5.5
6-14 4.0% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.1 4.0
5-15 2.9% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 2.9
4-16 1.8% 1.8
3-17 1.1% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 1.1
2-18 0.5% 0.5
1-19 0.2% 0.2
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 13.9% 10.9% 3.0% 11.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.1 2.4 3.2 2.2 1.1 0.7 0.7 86.1 3.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 2.2 28.3 42.5 10.4 14.2 4.7