Preseason Rankings
Auburn
Southeastern
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+14.1#21
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace74.3#46
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+7.5#24
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+6.6#32
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 2.1% 2.3% 0.2%
#1 Seed 8.6% 9.4% 1.3%
Top 2 Seed 17.3% 18.8% 3.2%
Top 4 Seed 33.2% 35.7% 9.0%
Top 6 Seed 47.1% 50.3% 17.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 70.5% 73.7% 39.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 67.5% 70.9% 36.9%
Average Seed 5.2 5.1 7.1
.500 or above 85.5% 88.3% 59.3%
.500 or above in Conference 71.9% 74.5% 47.3%
Conference Champion 11.5% 12.4% 3.4%
Last Place in Conference 2.7% 2.2% 7.8%
First Four3.6% 3.5% 4.9%
First Round68.7% 72.1% 37.6%
Second Round50.6% 53.6% 22.4%
Sweet Sixteen27.9% 29.9% 8.8%
Elite Eight13.9% 15.0% 3.6%
Final Four6.7% 7.3% 1.4%
Championship Game3.2% 3.5% 0.6%
National Champion1.5% 1.6% 0.2%

Next Game: George Mason (Home) - 90.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 25 - 7
Quad 25 - 210 - 9
Quad 36 - 116 - 10
Quad 44 - 020 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 123   George Mason W 79-65 90%    
  Nov 11, 2022 142   South Florida W 77-61 92%    
  Nov 15, 2022 174   Winthrop W 85-68 93%    
  Nov 18, 2022 241   Texas Southern W 84-64 96%    
  Nov 22, 2022 117   Bradley W 79-69 81%    
  Nov 27, 2022 45   Saint Louis W 79-73 70%    
  Dec 02, 2022 113   Colgate W 82-69 86%    
  Dec 10, 2022 35   Memphis W 78-76 57%    
  Dec 14, 2022 169   Georgia St. W 83-66 92%    
  Dec 18, 2022 37   @ USC L 72-73 47%    
  Dec 21, 2022 89   @ Washington W 79-74 65%    
  Dec 28, 2022 30   Florida W 75-70 64%    
  Jan 04, 2023 106   @ Georgia W 82-76 70%    
  Jan 07, 2023 11   Arkansas W 78-77 52%    
  Jan 10, 2023 58   @ Mississippi W 73-71 55%    
  Jan 14, 2023 64   Mississippi St. W 76-68 75%    
  Jan 18, 2023 47   @ LSU W 76-75 51%    
  Jan 21, 2023 87   @ South Carolina W 79-75 63%    
  Jan 25, 2023 39   Texas A&M W 76-70 67%    
  Jan 28, 2023 56   @ West Virginia W 76-74 55%    
  Feb 01, 2023 106   Georgia W 85-73 84%    
  Feb 04, 2023 10   @ Tennessee L 70-76 32%    
  Feb 07, 2023 39   @ Texas A&M L 72-73 48%    
  Feb 11, 2023 22   Alabama W 84-81 60%    
  Feb 14, 2023 70   Missouri W 78-69 76%    
  Feb 18, 2023 72   @ Vanderbilt W 76-73 59%    
  Feb 22, 2023 58   Mississippi W 76-68 72%    
  Feb 25, 2023 3   @ Kentucky L 73-81 28%    
  Mar 01, 2023 22   @ Alabama L 81-84 41%    
  Mar 04, 2023 10   Tennessee W 74-73 51%    
Projected Record 20 - 10 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 2.0 3.3 3.1 1.8 0.6 11.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.4 4.2 2.5 0.7 0.0 11.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.2 3.7 4.2 1.7 0.3 11.2 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 3.7 4.3 1.4 0.1 0.0 10.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 3.1 4.1 1.4 0.1 9.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.6 4.2 1.6 0.1 0.0 8.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.0 1.9 0.2 0.0 7.9 7th
8th 0.1 1.0 3.4 2.2 0.3 0.0 6.9 8th
9th 0.1 0.6 2.5 2.4 0.4 0.0 6.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 1.7 2.1 0.5 0.0 4.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.8 0.6 0.0 4.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.4 0.7 0.1 3.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.5 14th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.4 2.4 3.6 5.0 6.5 8.3 9.8 10.6 10.9 10.5 9.7 8.1 6.0 3.8 1.9 0.6 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
17-1 98.1% 1.8    1.6 0.2
16-2 82.6% 3.1    2.2 0.9 0.0
15-3 54.1% 3.3    1.7 1.3 0.3 0.0
14-4 24.6% 2.0    0.6 0.9 0.4 0.1
13-5 6.3% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 11.5% 11.5 6.8 3.4 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.6% 100.0% 41.1% 58.9% 1.1 0.5 0.1 100.0%
17-1 1.9% 100.0% 29.1% 70.9% 1.3 1.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 3.8% 100.0% 22.1% 77.9% 1.5 2.3 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 6.0% 100.0% 19.5% 80.5% 1.9 2.4 2.2 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 8.1% 100.0% 15.2% 84.8% 2.8 1.3 2.5 2.2 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 9.7% 99.6% 12.3% 87.3% 3.7 0.5 1.7 2.5 2.2 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.6%
12-6 10.5% 98.4% 9.7% 88.7% 5.0 0.1 0.6 1.5 2.1 2.2 1.6 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 98.2%
11-7 10.9% 94.9% 8.2% 86.7% 6.3 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.2 1.8 2.0 1.7 1.3 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.6 94.4%
10-8 10.6% 84.2% 6.8% 77.5% 7.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.7 83.1%
9-9 9.8% 66.6% 5.2% 61.4% 8.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.3 64.8%
8-10 8.3% 35.6% 3.8% 31.9% 10.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.4 33.1%
7-11 6.5% 13.9% 3.6% 10.4% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 5.6 10.8%
6-12 5.0% 5.3% 2.6% 2.7% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 4.8 2.7%
5-13 3.6% 2.3% 2.1% 0.2% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 3.5 0.2%
4-14 2.4% 1.9% 1.9% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.3
3-15 1.4% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 1.4
2-16 0.7% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 0.7
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 70.5% 9.2% 61.3% 5.2 8.6 8.8 8.2 7.7 7.3 6.7 6.0 5.0 4.4 3.6 3.1 0.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 29.5 67.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 1.1 91.3 8.7