Preseason Rankings
Winthrop
Big South
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating-0.3#174
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace70.7#104
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+0.5#171
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-0.8#196
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.6% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21.7% 37.0% 19.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.9% 0.1%
Average Seed 14.0 13.0 14.3
.500 or above 72.4% 93.1% 69.3%
.500 or above in Conference 84.4% 95.6% 82.7%
Conference Champion 27.1% 45.8% 24.3%
Last Place in Conference 1.3% 0.3% 1.5%
First Four2.2% 1.3% 2.4%
First Round20.6% 36.4% 18.2%
Second Round2.2% 6.0% 1.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 1.7% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Penn St. (Away) - 13.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 21 - 4
Quad 33 - 43 - 8
Quad 413 - 416 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 66   @ Penn St. L 60-72 13%    
  Nov 12, 2022 137   Middle Tennessee W 73-72 53%    
  Nov 15, 2022 21   @ Auburn L 68-85 7%    
  Nov 19, 2022 198   @ Mercer L 70-72 43%    
  Nov 22, 2022 299   Southern Miss W 77-69 75%    
  Dec 03, 2022 184   Coastal Carolina W 74-71 61%    
  Dec 06, 2022 356   South Carolina St. W 87-66 96%    
  Dec 10, 2022 96   @ Furman L 68-77 22%    
  Dec 17, 2022 47   @ LSU L 67-81 12%    
  Dec 21, 2022 178   @ Duquesne L 70-73 40%    
  Dec 29, 2022 345   @ South Carolina Upstate W 79-69 78%    
  Dec 31, 2022 211   UNC Asheville W 76-72 64%    
  Jan 04, 2023 310   Presbyterian W 75-63 83%    
  Jan 07, 2023 152   @ Longwood L 70-74 36%    
  Jan 11, 2023 293   Radford W 74-63 80%    
  Jan 14, 2023 256   @ Campbell W 67-66 55%    
  Jan 18, 2023 255   @ High Point W 72-71 54%    
  Jan 21, 2023 237   Gardner-Webb W 73-67 68%    
  Jan 25, 2023 335   Charleston Southern W 82-68 87%    
  Jan 28, 2023 310   @ Presbyterian W 72-66 68%    
  Feb 01, 2023 152   Longwood W 73-71 56%    
  Feb 04, 2023 293   @ Radford W 71-66 64%    
  Feb 08, 2023 211   @ UNC Asheville L 73-75 45%    
  Feb 11, 2023 345   South Carolina Upstate W 82-66 89%    
  Feb 15, 2023 237   @ Gardner-Webb L 70-71 50%    
  Feb 18, 2023 335   @ Charleston Southern W 79-71 74%    
  Feb 22, 2023 256   Campbell W 70-63 72%    
  Feb 25, 2023 255   High Point W 75-68 72%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.9 4.4 7.2 7.0 4.6 1.7 27.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.4 6.1 5.9 3.0 0.6 19.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.9 5.5 3.4 0.9 0.1 15.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.4 3.9 4.3 2.0 0.2 0.0 11.9 4th
5th 0.2 1.3 3.3 3.1 1.0 0.1 9.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.8 2.1 0.6 0.0 6.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.9 1.3 0.3 0.0 4.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 3.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.6 2.8 3.9 5.7 7.2 8.8 10.1 11.3 11.6 11.2 10.3 7.6 4.6 1.7 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.7    1.7
17-1 100.0% 4.6    4.5 0.2
16-2 91.8% 7.0    5.8 1.2 0.0
15-3 70.2% 7.2    4.8 2.2 0.2
14-4 39.1% 4.4    1.9 2.0 0.5 0.0
13-5 16.4% 1.9    0.5 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 3.0% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 27.1% 27.1 19.1 6.6 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.7% 79.2% 75.9% 3.3% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.3 13.6%
17-1 4.6% 60.5% 59.6% 0.8% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.8 2.0%
16-2 7.6% 50.4% 50.1% 0.2% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.3 1.2 0.5 0.0 3.8 0.5%
15-3 10.3% 38.4% 38.3% 0.0% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.9 1.5 0.9 0.2 6.3 0.0%
14-4 11.2% 28.0% 28.0% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.0 0.5 8.0
13-5 11.6% 20.6% 20.6% 14.8 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.0 0.6 9.2
12-6 11.3% 15.5% 15.5% 15.2 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.7 9.6
11-7 10.1% 11.3% 11.3% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 9.0
10-8 8.8% 7.9% 7.9% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.6 8.1
9-9 7.2% 5.4% 5.4% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.4 6.8
8-10 5.7% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.2 5.5
7-11 3.9% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.1 3.8
6-12 2.8% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.1 2.8
5-13 1.6% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 1.6
4-14 0.9% 0.9
3-15 0.4% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 0.4
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 21.7% 21.6% 0.1% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.6 2.4 4.2 5.4 4.7 4.0 78.3 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 5.0 10.7 35.7 17.9 17.9 17.9