Preseason Rankings
Coastal Carolina
Sun Belt
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating-0.4#184
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace67.2#207
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-0.1#184
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-0.3#181
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.1% 10.5% 3.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.5% 0.7% 0.1%
Average Seed 13.2 13.1 14.5
.500 or above 54.6% 61.1% 27.3%
.500 or above in Conference 59.0% 63.9% 38.4%
Conference Champion 10.4% 12.1% 3.6%
Last Place in Conference 6.1% 4.5% 12.9%
First Four1.2% 1.2% 1.1%
First Round8.5% 9.8% 3.1%
Second Round1.2% 1.4% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Carolina Upstate (Away) - 80.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 34 - 65 - 9
Quad 49 - 314 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 18, 2022 345   @ South Carolina Upstate W 77-67 81%    
  Nov 23, 2022 70   @ Missouri L 64-76 16%    
  Nov 26, 2022 135   South Dakota W 72-71 51%    
  Nov 30, 2022 179   UNC Wilmington W 71-68 60%    
  Dec 03, 2022 174   @ Winthrop L 71-74 39%    
  Dec 06, 2022 181   @ Wofford L 66-69 40%    
  Dec 14, 2022 135   @ South Dakota L 69-75 33%    
  Dec 19, 2022 151   College of Charleston W 80-78 55%    
  Dec 29, 2022 158   Louisiana W 66-64 57%    
  Dec 31, 2022 251   Georgia Southern W 72-65 70%    
  Jan 05, 2023 183   @ Appalachian St. L 65-68 40%    
  Jan 07, 2023 159   @ Marshall L 75-79 38%    
  Jan 12, 2023 186   @ Old Dominion L 64-67 41%    
  Jan 14, 2023 169   @ Georgia St. L 69-72 39%    
  Jan 19, 2023 183   Appalachian St. W 68-65 59%    
  Jan 21, 2023 205   South Alabama W 71-67 63%    
  Jan 23, 2023 362   Chicago St. W 81-57 97%    
  Jan 26, 2023 162   @ James Madison L 72-76 38%    
  Jan 28, 2023 186   Old Dominion W 67-64 60%    
  Feb 02, 2023 259   @ Louisiana Monroe W 73-71 55%    
  Feb 04, 2023 230   @ Arkansas St. L 70-71 49%    
  Feb 09, 2023 159   Marshall W 78-76 57%    
  Feb 11, 2023 162   James Madison W 75-73 57%    
  Feb 16, 2023 169   Georgia St. W 72-69 57%    
  Feb 18, 2023 168   Texas St. W 67-64 57%    
  Feb 22, 2023 251   @ Georgia Southern W 69-68 52%    
  Feb 24, 2023 235   @ Troy L 69-70 49%    
Projected Record 14 - 13 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.2 3.0 2.4 1.3 0.4 10.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.2 2.6 1.1 0.2 0.0 8.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.5 3.4 2.5 0.7 0.0 8.2 3rd
4th 0.0 1.1 3.5 2.7 0.7 0.0 8.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 3.2 3.1 0.8 0.0 0.0 7.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.4 3.7 1.0 0.1 7.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.8 3.9 1.5 0.1 0.0 7.5 7th
8th 0.1 1.1 3.8 2.4 0.2 0.0 7.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 3.0 2.8 0.4 0.0 6.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 2.2 3.0 0.8 0.0 6.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 1.7 2.9 1.3 0.0 6.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.6 2.4 1.2 0.2 0.0 5.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.6 1.7 1.0 0.2 0.0 5.2 13th
14th 0.2 0.7 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.5 14th
Total 0.2 0.8 1.6 3.1 4.2 5.7 7.2 8.6 9.6 9.8 9.9 9.5 8.5 7.4 5.6 4.1 2.5 1.3 0.4 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-1 99.0% 1.3    1.2 0.1
16-2 93.1% 2.4    1.9 0.4 0.0
15-3 73.2% 3.0    1.9 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-4 39.6% 2.2    0.8 1.0 0.4 0.0 0.0
13-5 13.8% 1.0    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.8% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 10.4% 10.4 6.5 2.8 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.4% 73.8% 43.2% 30.7% 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 54.0%
17-1 1.3% 55.9% 42.4% 13.5% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.6 23.4%
16-2 2.5% 42.3% 36.3% 6.0% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.5 9.4%
15-3 4.1% 26.4% 25.4% 1.0% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 3.0 1.3%
14-4 5.6% 20.5% 20.3% 0.1% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 4.4 0.2%
13-5 7.4% 16.2% 16.1% 0.1% 13.4 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 6.2 0.1%
12-6 8.5% 11.9% 11.9% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 7.5
11-7 9.5% 8.4% 8.4% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 8.7
10-8 9.9% 6.3% 6.3% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 9.3
9-9 9.8% 5.0% 5.0% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 9.3
8-10 9.6% 3.6% 3.6% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.3 9.2
7-11 8.6% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.0 0.2 8.4
6-12 7.2% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 0.1 7.1
5-13 5.7% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 5.7
4-14 4.2% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 4.2
3-15 3.1% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 3.0
2-16 1.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.6
1-17 0.8% 0.8
0-18 0.2% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 0.2
Total 100% 9.1% 8.7% 0.5% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.8 1.7 2.0 1.7 1.2 1.3 90.9 0.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 96.1% 4.0 20.2 11.6 27.9 24.0 8.5 3.9