Preseason Rankings
UNC Wilmington
Colonial Athletic
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating-0.4#179
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace64.5#282
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+0.9#159
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-1.3#216
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.6% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 1.7% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.8% 24.6% 9.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 3.1% 0.2%
Average Seed 13.7 11.4 13.8
.500 or above 57.0% 91.8% 56.4%
.500 or above in Conference 74.7% 95.8% 74.4%
Conference Champion 13.9% 34.6% 13.5%
Last Place in Conference 2.3% 0.2% 2.3%
First Four1.2% 1.2% 1.2%
First Round9.2% 24.1% 9.0%
Second Round1.1% 5.7% 1.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 1.5% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.5% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Carolina (Away) - 1.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 21 - 5
Quad 33 - 44 - 9
Quad 411 - 414 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 2   @ North Carolina L 64-86 2%    
  Nov 15, 2022 33   @ Oklahoma L 60-75 9%    
  Nov 18, 2022 31   @ Connecticut L 60-76 9%    
  Nov 25, 2022 131   Missouri St. L 70-73 40%    
  Nov 30, 2022 184   @ Coastal Carolina L 68-71 40%    
  Dec 06, 2022 192   East Carolina W 71-68 61%    
  Dec 10, 2022 160   Jacksonville W 64-62 58%    
  Dec 18, 2022 255   High Point W 72-65 72%    
  Dec 21, 2022 256   @ Campbell W 65-64 54%    
  Dec 28, 2022 260   @ Monmouth W 69-67 56%    
  Dec 31, 2022 328   Hampton W 79-66 86%    
  Jan 04, 2023 302   @ Elon W 70-65 65%    
  Jan 07, 2023 270   @ N.C. A&T W 71-69 57%    
  Jan 11, 2023 151   College of Charleston W 79-77 55%    
  Jan 14, 2023 295   William & Mary W 77-66 80%    
  Jan 16, 2023 302   Elon W 73-62 81%    
  Jan 19, 2023 141   @ Hofstra L 72-77 34%    
  Jan 21, 2023 258   @ Stony Brook W 73-71 55%    
  Jan 26, 2023 260   Monmouth W 72-64 73%    
  Feb 02, 2023 270   N.C. A&T W 74-66 75%    
  Feb 04, 2023 295   @ William & Mary W 74-69 63%    
  Feb 08, 2023 151   @ College of Charleston L 76-80 37%    
  Feb 11, 2023 199   Northeastern W 68-64 61%    
  Feb 16, 2023 201   @ Drexel L 68-70 43%    
  Feb 18, 2023 153   @ Delaware L 68-72 37%    
  Feb 23, 2023 258   Stony Brook W 76-68 72%    
  Feb 25, 2023 118   Towson L 67-68 47%    
Projected Record 14 - 13 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.5 4.0 3.4 2.3 0.7 13.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.9 4.6 2.6 0.7 0.0 13.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.6 4.7 4.3 1.6 0.2 0.0 12.5 3rd
4th 0.1 1.4 4.3 4.1 1.2 0.1 0.0 11.2 4th
5th 0.0 1.1 4.0 3.6 1.0 0.0 9.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 3.5 3.6 1.0 0.1 8.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.7 3.5 1.1 0.1 7.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.9 3.0 1.2 0.1 6.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.6 1.2 0.1 5.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.0 1.2 0.2 0.0 4.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 0.9 0.2 0.0 3.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 2.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.2 13th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.1 1.7 3.2 4.5 6.4 7.7 9.5 10.4 10.8 11.1 10.2 8.8 6.8 4.1 2.4 0.7 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.7    0.7
17-1 98.1% 2.3    2.1 0.2
16-2 83.6% 3.4    2.6 0.8 0.0
15-3 59.1% 4.0    2.1 1.5 0.4 0.0
14-4 28.9% 2.5    0.7 1.2 0.5 0.1
13-5 7.2% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 13.9% 13.9 8.4 4.1 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.7% 59.4% 49.6% 9.8% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 19.5%
17-1 2.4% 42.9% 39.4% 3.5% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.4 5.7%
16-2 4.1% 31.7% 31.0% 0.7% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.8 1.0%
15-3 6.8% 23.1% 22.9% 0.2% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 5.3 0.3%
14-4 8.8% 16.8% 16.8% 0.1% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 7.3 0.1%
13-5 10.2% 11.6% 11.6% 14.3 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 9.0
12-6 11.1% 9.0% 9.0% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 10.1
11-7 10.8% 6.8% 6.8% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 10.0
10-8 10.4% 4.5% 4.5% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 9.9
9-9 9.5% 2.8% 2.8% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 9.2
8-10 7.7% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 0.2 7.5
7-11 6.4% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.1 6.3
6-12 4.5% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 4.4
5-13 3.2% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 3.2
4-14 1.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.7
3-15 1.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.1
2-16 0.4% 0.4
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 9.8% 9.6% 0.2% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.2 2.1 1.7 1.7 90.2 0.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%