Preseason Rankings
Monmouth
Colonial Athletic
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating-5.2#260
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace66.6#226
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-3.5#282
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-1.7#230
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.2% 9.2% 3.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 13.7 14.7
.500 or above 20.6% 56.3% 19.2%
.500 or above in Conference 42.0% 72.1% 40.9%
Conference Champion 3.3% 11.0% 3.0%
Last Place in Conference 10.3% 1.7% 10.6%
First Four1.0% 1.6% 1.0%
First Round2.7% 8.1% 2.5%
Second Round0.2% 0.9% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Seton Hall (Away) - 3.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 30 - 7
Quad 32 - 73 - 14
Quad 49 - 611 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2022 46   @ Seton Hall L 59-78 4%    
  Nov 11, 2022 20   @ Virginia L 48-70 2%    
  Nov 14, 2022 18   @ Illinois L 58-81 2%    
  Nov 17, 2022 190   Norfolk St. L 67-68 45%    
  Nov 21, 2022 113   @ Colgate L 64-76 16%    
  Nov 25, 2022 217   Cornell L 75-76 49%    
  Nov 27, 2022 282   @ Lehigh L 70-71 46%    
  Nov 30, 2022 218   @ Rider L 66-72 31%    
  Dec 04, 2022 227   @ Manhattan L 68-73 33%    
  Dec 10, 2022 165   @ Princeton L 67-75 25%    
  Dec 12, 2022 52   @ Syracuse L 63-81 7%    
  Dec 17, 2022 164   Charlotte L 67-69 42%    
  Dec 22, 2022 146   Yale L 67-71 39%    
  Dec 28, 2022 179   UNC Wilmington L 67-69 44%    
  Jan 05, 2023 258   Stony Brook W 73-70 59%    
  Jan 07, 2023 201   @ Drexel L 65-72 29%    
  Jan 11, 2023 141   @ Hofstra L 68-78 22%    
  Jan 14, 2023 118   @ Towson L 61-73 17%    
  Jan 19, 2023 151   College of Charleston L 76-79 40%    
  Jan 21, 2023 328   Hampton W 75-67 75%    
  Jan 26, 2023 179   @ UNC Wilmington L 64-72 27%    
  Jan 28, 2023 270   @ N.C. A&T L 68-70 42%    
  Feb 02, 2023 153   Delaware L 68-71 41%    
  Feb 04, 2023 201   Drexel L 68-69 47%    
  Feb 08, 2023 258   @ Stony Brook L 70-73 40%    
  Feb 11, 2023 141   Hofstra L 71-75 39%    
  Feb 13, 2023 270   N.C. A&T W 71-67 61%    
  Feb 16, 2023 199   @ Northeastern L 61-68 29%    
  Feb 18, 2023 302   Elon W 70-64 68%    
  Feb 23, 2023 328   @ Hampton W 72-70 57%    
  Feb 25, 2023 295   @ William & Mary L 70-71 49%    
Projected Record 11 - 20 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.1 3.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.7 1.4 0.6 0.1 4.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.1 2.2 1.8 0.5 0.1 5.8 3rd
4th 0.1 1.2 3.1 1.9 0.4 0.0 6.7 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 3.3 2.7 0.5 0.0 7.6 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 3.5 3.3 0.8 0.0 8.6 6th
7th 0.1 0.7 3.6 3.8 0.9 0.0 9.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 3.2 4.2 1.4 0.1 0.0 9.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 3.2 4.6 1.7 0.1 0.0 10.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 3.1 4.3 1.9 0.2 0.0 10.2 10th
11th 0.1 0.9 2.9 3.7 1.7 0.2 9.5 11th
12th 0.1 1.1 2.7 3.0 1.3 0.2 0.0 8.4 12th
13th 0.4 1.3 2.1 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 6.1 13th
Total 0.4 1.5 3.2 5.2 7.2 8.9 10.2 10.8 10.7 10.1 8.9 7.8 5.5 4.2 2.8 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
16-2 87.8% 0.7    0.6 0.2 0.0
15-3 60.8% 0.9    0.5 0.4 0.1
14-4 29.5% 0.8    0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0
13-5 8.8% 0.4    0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.3% 3.3 1.7 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 45.1% 35.3% 9.8% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.2%
17-1 0.3% 35.4% 33.0% 2.4% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 3.6%
16-2 0.8% 23.4% 22.1% 1.2% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.6%
15-3 1.6% 18.6% 18.6% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.3
14-4 2.8% 15.4% 15.4% 13.7 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.4
13-5 4.2% 10.0% 10.0% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 3.8
12-6 5.5% 7.2% 7.2% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 5.1
11-7 7.8% 4.7% 4.7% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 7.4
10-8 8.9% 3.1% 3.1% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 8.6
9-9 10.1% 2.6% 2.6% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 9.9
8-10 10.7% 1.7% 1.7% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 10.5
7-11 10.8% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 10.7
6-12 10.2% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 10.1
5-13 8.9% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 8.8
4-14 7.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 7.1
3-15 5.2% 5.2
2-16 3.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.2
1-17 1.5% 1.5
0-18 0.4% 0.4
Total 100% 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.6 1.2 96.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%