Preseason Rankings
Hofstra
Colonial Athletic
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+1.6#141
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace71.8#81
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.2#91
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-1.5#224
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.4% 0.8% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.5% 21.8% 10.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.2% 2.5% 0.3%
Average Seed 12.9 12.3 13.8
.500 or above 66.0% 82.8% 52.9%
.500 or above in Conference 81.1% 89.9% 74.3%
Conference Champion 19.6% 27.9% 13.1%
Last Place in Conference 1.3% 0.4% 1.9%
First Four1.7% 1.6% 1.7%
First Round14.7% 21.0% 9.8%
Second Round2.6% 4.4% 1.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.7% 1.2% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Princeton (Away) - 43.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 35 - 56 - 10
Quad 411 - 317 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 165   @ Princeton L 76-78 44%    
  Nov 11, 2022 101   Iona L 77-78 49%    
  Nov 14, 2022 196   George Washington W 80-74 69%    
  Nov 17, 2022 210   @ San Jose St. W 74-73 50%    
  Nov 19, 2022 44   @ St. Mary's L 63-75 15%    
  Nov 25, 2022 137   Middle Tennessee L 74-75 48%    
  Nov 26, 2022 139   UNC Greensboro L 68-69 49%    
  Nov 27, 2022 221   Quinnipiac W 80-76 63%    
  Nov 30, 2022 123   @ George Mason L 70-75 35%    
  Dec 07, 2022 24   @ Purdue L 69-84 11%    
  Dec 11, 2022 124   Massachusetts L 80-82 44%    
  Dec 19, 2022 142   @ South Florida L 68-71 40%    
  Dec 29, 2022 153   @ Delaware L 74-76 43%    
  Dec 31, 2022 270   N.C. A&T W 80-70 80%    
  Jan 05, 2023 328   @ Hampton W 82-73 77%    
  Jan 07, 2023 295   @ William & Mary W 81-74 70%    
  Jan 11, 2023 260   Monmouth W 78-68 78%    
  Jan 14, 2023 153   Delaware W 77-73 62%    
  Jan 16, 2023 118   @ Towson L 70-75 34%    
  Jan 19, 2023 179   UNC Wilmington W 77-72 66%    
  Jan 26, 2023 302   @ Elon W 76-69 71%    
  Jan 28, 2023 151   @ College of Charleston L 84-86 43%    
  Feb 02, 2023 118   Towson W 73-72 53%    
  Feb 04, 2023 258   Stony Brook W 83-73 78%    
  Feb 08, 2023 199   @ Northeastern L 70-71 49%    
  Feb 11, 2023 260   @ Monmouth W 75-71 61%    
  Feb 13, 2023 201   Drexel W 77-71 67%    
  Feb 16, 2023 328   Hampton W 85-70 88%    
  Feb 18, 2023 258   @ Stony Brook W 80-76 62%    
  Feb 25, 2023 199   Northeastern W 73-67 68%    
Projected Record 17 - 13 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.0 5.4 5.5 3.4 1.2 19.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.5 4.6 5.4 3.0 0.8 0.0 15.5 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.6 4.8 4.6 1.7 0.2 0.0 13.0 3rd
4th 0.1 1.3 4.4 4.1 1.1 0.1 11.1 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 3.7 3.6 1.0 0.1 9.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 3.0 3.3 1.0 0.1 7.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.2 2.9 1.0 0.1 6.4 7th
8th 0.2 1.5 2.5 1.1 0.1 5.4 8th
9th 0.1 1.0 2.0 1.0 0.1 0.0 4.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.4 0.8 0.1 0.0 3.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.6 0.1 2.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.3 2.2 3.3 4.8 6.3 8.2 9.5 10.9 11.6 11.3 10.2 8.7 6.2 3.4 1.2 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.2    1.2
17-1 99.5% 3.4    3.2 0.2
16-2 87.5% 5.5    4.2 1.2 0.0
15-3 62.7% 5.4    3.1 2.0 0.4 0.0
14-4 29.6% 3.0    1.0 1.4 0.5 0.1
13-5 8.0% 0.9    0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 19.6% 19.6 12.8 5.1 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.2% 73.1% 57.3% 15.8% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 36.9%
17-1 3.4% 54.2% 42.5% 11.7% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.6 20.4%
16-2 6.2% 40.5% 36.4% 4.1% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 3.7 6.4%
15-3 8.7% 30.3% 28.9% 1.4% 12.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 6.0 2.0%
14-4 10.2% 20.8% 20.4% 0.4% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.0 8.1 0.5%
13-5 11.3% 15.8% 15.7% 0.1% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.1 9.5 0.1%
12-6 11.6% 12.3% 12.3% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 10.2
11-7 10.9% 8.2% 8.2% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 10.0
10-8 9.5% 6.6% 6.6% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 8.8
9-9 8.2% 3.9% 3.9% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 7.8
8-10 6.3% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 6.1
7-11 4.8% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.0 0.1 4.7
6-12 3.3% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.1 3.2
5-13 2.2% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 2.2
4-14 1.3% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 1.2
3-15 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 0.7
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 15.5% 14.4% 1.0% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.6 3.2 3.3 2.6 1.8 1.7 84.5 1.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 3.2 8.3 16.7 50.0 8.3 8.3 8.3