Preseason Rankings
College of Charleston
Colonial Athletic
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+1.0#151
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace83.1#1
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+2.2#121
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-1.2#210
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.6% 17.9% 8.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.8% 1.4% 0.1%
Average Seed 13.1 12.7 14.1
.500 or above 71.1% 84.0% 55.4%
.500 or above in Conference 77.3% 85.4% 67.3%
Conference Champion 16.7% 22.7% 9.3%
Last Place in Conference 1.7% 0.8% 2.8%
First Four1.3% 1.3% 1.2%
First Round13.0% 17.3% 7.8%
Second Round2.0% 3.2% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 1.0% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Chattanooga (Home) - 54.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 34 - 55 - 9
Quad 411 - 316 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 130   Chattanooga W 77-76 55%    
  Nov 11, 2022 2   @ North Carolina L 75-96 3%    
  Nov 14, 2022 88   Richmond L 77-80 41%    
  Nov 17, 2022 81   Davidson L 77-80 39%    
  Nov 23, 2022 120   Kent St. W 79-78 52%    
  Nov 29, 2022 186   Old Dominion W 77-72 65%    
  Dec 03, 2022 265   @ The Citadel W 87-84 61%    
  Dec 06, 2022 310   @ Presbyterian W 78-71 71%    
  Dec 14, 2022 292   Stetson W 84-72 83%    
  Dec 19, 2022 184   @ Coastal Carolina L 78-80 45%    
  Dec 29, 2022 328   Hampton W 90-75 88%    
  Dec 31, 2022 118   @ Towson L 74-80 33%    
  Jan 04, 2023 270   @ N.C. A&T W 82-78 61%    
  Jan 07, 2023 153   Delaware W 81-78 60%    
  Jan 11, 2023 179   @ UNC Wilmington L 77-79 45%    
  Jan 14, 2023 302   Elon W 83-71 84%    
  Jan 16, 2023 295   William & Mary W 88-76 83%    
  Jan 19, 2023 260   @ Monmouth W 79-76 60%    
  Jan 21, 2023 199   @ Northeastern L 74-75 47%    
  Jan 28, 2023 141   Hofstra W 86-84 57%    
  Feb 02, 2023 201   @ Drexel L 78-79 47%    
  Feb 04, 2023 153   @ Delaware L 78-81 41%    
  Feb 08, 2023 179   UNC Wilmington W 80-76 63%    
  Feb 11, 2023 328   @ Hampton W 87-78 75%    
  Feb 13, 2023 199   Northeastern W 77-72 66%    
  Feb 16, 2023 302   @ Elon W 80-74 69%    
  Feb 23, 2023 118   Towson W 77-76 51%    
  Feb 25, 2023 258   Stony Brook W 87-78 76%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.9 4.7 4.4 2.6 1.0 16.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.5 4.3 4.9 2.5 0.5 0.0 13.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.7 4.6 4.4 1.5 0.1 12.4 3rd
4th 0.1 1.4 4.4 4.0 1.0 0.1 11.0 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 4.0 3.6 1.0 0.1 9.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 3.1 3.8 1.1 0.1 8.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.5 3.2 1.1 0.1 0.0 7.4 7th
8th 0.3 1.8 2.9 1.1 0.1 0.0 6.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.4 1.2 0.1 0.0 5.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.6 0.9 0.1 0.0 3.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.1 0.7 0.1 2.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.1 1.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.9 13th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.6 2.7 3.9 5.7 7.5 8.6 10.5 11.0 11.2 10.6 9.4 7.2 5.0 2.6 1.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.0    1.0
17-1 99.6% 2.6    2.5 0.1
16-2 89.2% 4.4    3.5 1.0 0.0
15-3 64.5% 4.7    2.6 1.7 0.3 0.0
14-4 31.1% 2.9    1.1 1.2 0.6 0.1
13-5 8.3% 0.9    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 16.7% 16.7 10.8 4.4 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.0% 72.3% 54.5% 17.8% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 39.1%
17-1 2.6% 56.5% 45.8% 10.7% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.1 19.8%
16-2 5.0% 40.7% 37.1% 3.5% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 3.0 5.6%
15-3 7.2% 28.7% 27.9% 0.8% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 5.2 1.1%
14-4 9.4% 22.2% 22.1% 0.1% 13.3 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 7.3 0.1%
13-5 10.6% 15.9% 15.9% 13.8 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 8.9
12-6 11.2% 10.8% 10.8% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 10.0
11-7 11.0% 8.7% 8.7% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 10.0
10-8 10.5% 5.8% 5.8% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 9.9
9-9 8.6% 3.7% 3.7% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 8.3
8-10 7.5% 3.1% 3.1% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 7.2
7-11 5.7% 1.8% 1.8% 15.9 0.0 0.1 5.6
6-12 3.9% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 3.8
5-13 2.7% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 2.7
4-14 1.6% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 1.6
3-15 0.8% 0.8
2-16 0.4% 0.4
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 13.6% 12.9% 0.7% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.2 2.6 3.2 2.8 1.7 1.3 86.4 0.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 4.1 6.5 40.3 13.0 14.3 19.5 6.5