Preseason Rankings
Davidson
Atlantic 10
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+7.3#81
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace63.2#318
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+5.4#47
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+1.8#124
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.3% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 1.0% 1.4% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 3.0% 4.3% 0.5%
Top 6 Seed 5.7% 8.0% 1.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 24.6% 31.4% 11.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 18.0% 24.0% 6.9%
Average Seed 8.8 8.5 10.2
.500 or above 72.9% 82.9% 53.7%
.500 or above in Conference 67.8% 75.5% 53.2%
Conference Champion 10.0% 12.8% 4.7%
Last Place in Conference 2.8% 1.5% 5.3%
First Four4.5% 5.4% 2.8%
First Round22.3% 28.5% 10.3%
Second Round11.0% 14.7% 4.0%
Sweet Sixteen4.0% 5.5% 1.1%
Elite Eight1.5% 2.1% 0.3%
Final Four0.6% 0.8% 0.1%
Championship Game0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Wright St. (Away) - 65.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 4
Quad 23 - 34 - 7
Quad 36 - 310 - 10
Quad 46 - 116 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2022 171   @ Wright St. W 75-71 66%    
  Nov 13, 2022 272   VMI W 82-66 93%    
  Nov 17, 2022 151   @ College of Charleston W 80-77 61%    
  Nov 25, 2022 83   San Francisco W 73-70 60%    
  Nov 29, 2022 164   Charlotte W 74-64 80%    
  Dec 03, 2022 153   @ Delaware W 71-68 60%    
  Dec 07, 2022 268   Western Carolina W 81-65 90%    
  Dec 17, 2022 24   Purdue L 68-74 30%    
  Dec 21, 2022 199   Northeastern W 71-60 82%    
  Dec 28, 2022 202   @ Fordham W 69-63 68%    
  Dec 31, 2022 28   Dayton L 64-66 42%    
  Jan 04, 2023 54   Loyola Chicago W 66-65 51%    
  Jan 07, 2023 75   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 67-71 37%    
  Jan 11, 2023 88   Richmond W 71-67 61%    
  Jan 14, 2023 123   @ George Mason W 68-67 52%    
  Jan 17, 2023 28   @ Dayton L 61-69 25%    
  Jan 24, 2023 182   @ La Salle W 72-67 65%    
  Jan 27, 2023 45   Saint Louis L 71-72 48%    
  Jan 31, 2023 75   Virginia Commonwealth W 70-68 57%    
  Feb 04, 2023 124   @ Massachusetts W 76-75 53%    
  Feb 11, 2023 202   Fordham W 72-60 82%    
  Feb 15, 2023 45   @ Saint Louis L 68-75 30%    
  Feb 18, 2023 149   Saint Joseph's W 75-66 76%    
  Feb 22, 2023 103   St. Bonaventure W 71-66 66%    
  Feb 26, 2023 178   @ Duquesne W 71-66 64%    
  Mar 01, 2023 196   George Washington W 77-66 81%    
  Mar 04, 2023 112   @ Rhode Island W 69-68 52%    
Projected Record 16 - 11 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 1.7 3.0 2.8 1.6 0.4 10.0 1st
2nd 0.1 0.8 2.9 3.5 1.9 0.3 0.0 9.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 3.2 3.8 1.4 0.1 0.0 9.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 3.4 4.2 1.5 0.1 9.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.5 4.2 1.6 0.1 0.0 8.8 5th
6th 0.1 1.6 4.3 2.1 0.2 8.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 3.7 2.7 0.4 0.0 7.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.9 3.4 0.6 0.0 7.4 8th
9th 0.2 1.7 3.3 1.1 0.1 6.3 9th
10th 0.1 1.1 3.1 1.6 0.1 6.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.7 2.4 1.8 0.2 0.0 5.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 1.7 1.7 0.4 0.0 4.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.5 0.4 0.0 3.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.9 0.4 0.0 2.4 14th
15th 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.5 15th
Total 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 2.7 4.4 5.9 7.4 9.1 10.3 10.8 10.9 10.1 8.8 6.9 5.1 3.1 1.6 0.4 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-1 99.3% 1.6    1.5 0.1
16-2 89.4% 2.8    2.1 0.7 0.1
15-3 59.5% 3.0    1.5 1.2 0.3 0.0
14-4 25.2% 1.7    0.5 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-5 5.3% 0.5    0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 10.0% 10.0 6.0 2.9 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.4% 99.3% 34.9% 64.4% 2.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.9%
17-1 1.6% 98.3% 32.5% 65.8% 3.7 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.4%
16-2 3.1% 95.4% 27.0% 68.4% 5.8 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 93.8%
15-3 5.1% 84.6% 19.5% 65.2% 7.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.8 80.9%
14-4 6.9% 69.4% 15.2% 54.3% 9.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.6 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.2 0.0 2.1 64.0%
13-5 8.8% 47.8% 12.8% 34.9% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.4 0.4 0.0 4.6 40.1%
12-6 10.1% 27.9% 9.1% 18.8% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 7.3 20.7%
11-7 10.9% 14.7% 7.3% 7.4% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.3 8.0%
10-8 10.8% 7.9% 5.8% 2.0% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.9 2.2%
9-9 10.3% 4.7% 4.2% 0.5% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 9.8 0.5%
8-10 9.1% 3.4% 3.4% 0.1% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 8.8 0.1%
7-11 7.4% 2.4% 2.4% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 7.3
6-12 5.9% 1.7% 1.7% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 5.8
5-13 4.4% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 4.3
4-14 2.7% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 2.7
3-15 1.6% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 1.6
2-16 0.8% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 0.8
1-17 0.3% 0.3
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 24.6% 8.1% 16.5% 8.8 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.7 1.9 2.9 3.9 4.9 2.3 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.3 75.4 18.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.7 48.4 32.4 16.0 3.1