Preseason Rankings
Western Carolina
Southern
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating-5.7#268
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace70.9#100
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-1.2#222
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-4.5#305
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.5% 6.4% 2.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 13.9 14.9
.500 or above 25.9% 59.0% 22.1%
.500 or above in Conference 24.5% 47.6% 21.8%
Conference Champion 1.9% 5.9% 1.5%
Last Place in Conference 27.2% 11.0% 29.1%
First Four0.8% 1.1% 0.7%
First Round2.1% 5.9% 1.7%
Second Round0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Georgia (Away) - 10.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 32 - 72 - 12
Quad 48 - 511 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 106   @ Georgia L 72-85 10%    
  Nov 10, 2022 48   @ Maryland L 64-83 4%    
  Nov 18, 2022 331   @ McNeese St. W 79-77 58%    
  Nov 19, 2022 301   Lamar W 74-71 58%    
  Nov 20, 2022 355   Lindenwood W 80-69 83%    
  Nov 26, 2022 211   @ UNC Asheville L 72-79 28%    
  Nov 30, 2022 237   Gardner-Webb W 72-71 52%    
  Dec 03, 2022 345   South Carolina Upstate W 80-70 80%    
  Dec 07, 2022 81   @ Davidson L 65-81 10%    
  Dec 17, 2022 305   @ Tennessee Tech L 77-78 49%    
  Dec 29, 2022 139   UNC Greensboro L 65-69 36%    
  Dec 31, 2022 96   Furman L 69-78 24%    
  Jan 04, 2023 189   @ East Tennessee St. L 69-77 26%    
  Jan 07, 2023 198   Mercer L 71-73 45%    
  Jan 11, 2023 130   @ Chattanooga L 66-77 18%    
  Jan 14, 2023 265   @ The Citadel L 78-81 40%    
  Jan 18, 2023 181   Wofford L 70-72 43%    
  Jan 21, 2023 172   @ Samford L 75-83 25%    
  Jan 25, 2023 265   The Citadel W 81-78 59%    
  Jan 28, 2023 272   @ VMI L 77-80 41%    
  Feb 01, 2023 172   Samford L 78-80 42%    
  Feb 04, 2023 130   Chattanooga L 69-74 33%    
  Feb 08, 2023 181   @ Wofford L 67-75 26%    
  Feb 11, 2023 96   @ Furman L 66-81 12%    
  Feb 15, 2023 189   East Tennessee St. L 72-74 43%    
  Feb 18, 2023 198   @ Mercer L 68-76 28%    
  Feb 22, 2023 139   @ UNC Greensboro L 62-72 21%    
  Feb 25, 2023 272   VMI W 80-77 60%    
Projected Record 11 - 17 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 3.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.7 1.4 0.5 0.1 4.7 3rd
4th 0.2 1.4 2.7 1.6 0.4 0.0 6.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.2 3.6 1.8 0.4 0.0 8.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 3.0 4.5 2.1 0.3 0.0 10.6 6th
7th 0.1 1.1 4.1 4.7 2.1 0.2 0.0 12.4 7th
8th 0.4 2.3 5.3 5.1 2.0 0.2 0.0 15.3 8th
9th 0.1 1.4 4.1 5.9 4.4 1.3 0.1 0.0 17.4 9th
10th 1.7 4.2 5.9 4.8 2.3 0.7 0.1 19.6 10th
Total 1.7 4.4 7.3 9.2 10.7 11.5 11.4 10.2 9.2 7.4 5.8 4.1 3.0 1.9 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-2 94.6% 0.3    0.2 0.0 0.0
15-3 75.6% 0.5    0.4 0.1 0.0
14-4 48.5% 0.6    0.3 0.3 0.0
13-5 19.0% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 4.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.9% 1.9 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.1% 48.9% 40.0% 8.9% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 14.8%
16-2 0.3% 32.5% 30.8% 1.7% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.5%
15-3 0.6% 21.2% 20.4% 0.8% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.0%
14-4 1.2% 15.1% 15.1% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.0
13-5 1.9% 13.6% 13.4% 0.1% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.7 0.2%
12-6 3.0% 8.8% 8.8% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.7
11-7 4.1% 6.9% 6.9% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 3.8
10-8 5.8% 5.0% 5.0% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 5.5
9-9 7.4% 3.8% 3.8% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 7.1
8-10 9.2% 2.5% 2.5% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 8.9
7-11 10.2% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.2 10.0
6-12 11.4% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 11.3
5-13 11.5% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 11.4
4-14 10.7% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 10.6
3-15 9.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 9.2
2-16 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 7.3
1-17 4.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.4
0-18 1.7% 1.7
Total 100% 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 1.0 97.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%