IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
UNC Asheville
Big South
2022-23

Overall
Predictive Rating	-1.7	#211
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	67.1	#211
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+0.8	#162

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-2.6	#253

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.1%	0.3%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	16.1%	28.0%	13.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.1%	0.3%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.2	13.5	14.5

.500 or above	69.0%	91.2%	64.9%
.500 or above in Conference	77.8%	91.9%	75.2%
Conference Champion	19.8%	35.3%	16.9%
Last Place in Conference	2.2%	0.6%	2.5%

First Four	1.8%	1.1%	1.9%
First Round	15.1%	27.4%	12.9%
Second Round	1.3%	3.7%	0.9%
Sweet Sixteen	0.3%	1.0%	0.2%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Central Florida (Away) - 15.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	0 - 2	0 - 4
Quad 3	2 - 4	2 - 8
Quad 4	14 - 5	17 - 12

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 07, 2022	92	@ Central Florida	L	67-78	16%
Nov 18, 2022	343	Texas A&M - Commerce	W	77-66	83%
Nov 19, 2022	219	Eastern Kentucky	W	78-77	51%
Nov 20, 2022	169	@ Georgia St.	L	69-74	34%
Nov 26, 2022	268	Western Carolina	W	79-72	72%
Nov 29, 2022	340	@ NC Central	W	75-67	74%
Dec 03, 2022	352	Tennessee Martin	W	84-67	92%
Dec 10, 2022	28	@ Dayton	L	58-75	8%
Dec 13, 2022	356	@ South Carolina St.	W	83-69	87%
Dec 17, 2022	189	@ East Tennessee St.	L	70-74	37%
Dec 21, 2022	11	@ Arkansas	L	64-85	4%
Dec 29, 2022	293	Radford	W	72-63	77%
Dec 31, 2022	174	@ Winthrop	L	72-76	36%
Jan 04, 2023	255	@ High Point	L	70-71	49%
Jan 07, 2023	256	Campbell	W	69-63	68%
Jan 11, 2023	152	Longwood	W	72-71	51%
Jan 14, 2023	237	@ Gardner-Webb	L	69-71	45%
Jan 18, 2023	335	@ Charleston Southern	W	77-70	70%
Jan 21, 2023	345	South Carolina Upstate	W	80-66	87%
Jan 25, 2023	310	Presbyterian	W	73-63	79%
Jan 28, 2023	256	@ Campbell	L	65-66	50%
Feb 01, 2023	255	High Point	W	74-68	68%
Feb 04, 2023	345	@ South Carolina Upstate	W	77-69	75%
Feb 08, 2023	174	Winthrop	W	75-73	55%
Feb 11, 2023	310	@ Presbyterian	W	70-66	63%
Feb 15, 2023	293	@ Radford	W	69-66	59%
Feb 18, 2023	237	Gardner-Webb	W	72-68	64%
Feb 22, 2023	335	Charleston Southern	W	80-67	84%
Feb 25, 2023	152	@ Longwood	L	68-74	33%
Projected Record						17 - 12	11 - 7

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big South Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.3	1.6	3.8	5.3	5.0	2.8	1.0		19.8	1st
2nd										0.0	0.1	0.8	3.2	5.4	4.9	2.2	0.5				17.1	2nd
3rd										0.1	1.3	3.9	5.7	3.3	0.8	0.0					15.2	3rd
4th								0.0	0.2	1.5	4.5	4.8	2.1	0.3	0.0						13.4	4th
5th							0.0	0.2	1.9	4.2	3.7	1.1	0.1								11.1	5th
6th						0.0	0.2	1.6	3.5	2.5	0.6	0.0									8.6	6th
7th					0.0	0.3	1.6	2.6	1.7	0.4	0.0										6.6	7th
8th				0.0	0.4	1.3	1.7	0.9	0.1	0.0											4.4	8th
9th		0.0	0.1	0.4	0.9	0.8	0.4	0.0													2.6	9th
10th	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0													1.2	10th

Total	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.8	1.6	2.5	3.9	5.4	7.4	8.6	10.2	10.7	11.4	10.6	9.5	7.5	5.4	2.8	1.0			Total

Big South Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	1.0		1.0
17-1	100.0%	2.8		2.6	0.1
16-2	91.6%	5.0		4.1	0.9	0.0
15-3	70.6%	5.3		3.4	1.7	0.2
14-4	39.8%	3.8		1.7	1.7	0.4	0.0
13-5	15.3%	1.6		0.4	0.7	0.4	0.1	0.0
12-6	2.6%	0.3		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.3%	0.0				0.0	0.0	0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	19.8%	19.8		13.2	5.2	1.2	0.2	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	1.0%		71.9%	69.5%	2.4%	11.7					0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0		0.3		7.8%
17-1	2.8%		56.0%	55.4%	0.6%	12.9							0.0			0.0	0.0	0.1	0.5	0.6	0.3	0.1	0.0	1.2		1.4%
16-2	5.4%		45.8%	45.7%	0.1%	13.4											0.0	0.0	0.4	0.9	0.9	0.3	0.0	2.9		0.2%
15-3	7.5%		34.5%	34.5%		13.9												0.0	0.2	0.7	1.0	0.6	0.1	4.9
14-4	9.5%		26.6%	26.6%		14.4													0.1	0.4	0.9	0.9	0.3	7.0
13-5	10.6%		19.5%	19.5%		14.8													0.0	0.1	0.6	0.9	0.5	8.6
12-6	11.4%		14.1%	14.1%		15.1													0.0	0.0	0.3	0.6	0.6	9.8
11-7	10.7%		9.8%	9.8%		15.5														0.0	0.1	0.4	0.6	9.6
10-8	10.2%		6.8%	6.8%		15.7															0.0	0.2	0.5	9.5
9-9	8.6%		5.5%	5.5%		15.9																0.1	0.4	8.2
8-10	7.4%		2.3%	2.3%		16.0																0.0	0.2	7.2
7-11	5.4%		1.7%	1.7%		16.0																	0.1	5.3
6-12	3.9%		0.8%	0.8%		16.0																	0.0	3.9
5-13	2.5%		0.9%	0.9%		16.0																	0.0	2.5
4-14	1.6%		0.8%	0.8%		16.0																	0.0	1.6
3-15	0.8%																							0.8
2-16	0.4%																							0.4
1-17	0.1%																							0.1
0-18	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		16.1%	16.1%	0.0%	14.2					0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	1.3	2.9	4.2	4.0	3.4	83.9		0.1%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.0%	100.0%	5.4				16.4	24.6	59.0