Preseason Rankings
East Tennessee St.
Southern
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating-0.6#189
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace64.6#273
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+1.3#148
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-1.9#237
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.6% 10.0% 4.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.5% 0.6% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.3 13.1 14.5
.500 or above 60.4% 68.3% 34.4%
.500 or above in Conference 57.2% 62.9% 38.5%
Conference Champion 8.9% 10.6% 3.3%
Last Place in Conference 7.8% 5.7% 14.8%
First Four1.1% 1.1% 1.2%
First Round8.1% 9.5% 3.4%
Second Round1.1% 1.4% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Elon (Neutral) - 76.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 33 - 54 - 9
Quad 411 - 415 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2022 302   Elon W 72-64 77%    
  Nov 17, 2022 261   Arkansas Little Rock W 74-66 75%    
  Nov 20, 2022 305   @ Tennessee Tech W 76-71 66%    
  Nov 23, 2022 183   Appalachian St. W 68-65 59%    
  Nov 27, 2022 106   @ Georgia L 71-79 24%    
  Dec 03, 2022 209   Jacksonville St. W 71-67 63%    
  Dec 11, 2022 187   @ Morehead St. L 65-68 40%    
  Dec 14, 2022 321   Queens W 78-66 84%    
  Dec 17, 2022 211   UNC Asheville W 74-70 63%    
  Dec 21, 2022 47   @ LSU L 65-79 12%    
  Dec 29, 2022 181   @ Wofford L 66-69 40%    
  Dec 31, 2022 272   @ VMI W 75-73 57%    
  Jan 04, 2023 268   Western Carolina W 77-69 74%    
  Jan 07, 2023 96   Furman L 68-72 39%    
  Jan 11, 2023 265   @ The Citadel W 77-75 56%    
  Jan 14, 2023 198   Mercer W 71-67 61%    
  Jan 18, 2023 172   Samford W 77-74 58%    
  Jan 21, 2023 130   @ Chattanooga L 65-71 31%    
  Jan 25, 2023 198   @ Mercer L 68-70 42%    
  Jan 28, 2023 130   Chattanooga L 67-68 49%    
  Feb 01, 2023 181   Wofford W 69-66 59%    
  Feb 04, 2023 172   @ Samford L 74-77 39%    
  Feb 07, 2023 139   @ UNC Greensboro L 62-67 33%    
  Feb 10, 2023 272   VMI W 78-70 74%    
  Feb 15, 2023 268   @ Western Carolina W 74-72 57%    
  Feb 19, 2023 96   @ Furman L 65-75 22%    
  Feb 22, 2023 265   The Citadel W 80-72 73%    
  Feb 25, 2023 139   UNC Greensboro W 65-64 52%    
Projected Record 15 - 13 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.2 2.4 1.7 0.9 0.3 8.9 1st
2nd 0.1 0.9 2.7 3.8 2.5 1.0 0.2 11.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.8 4.1 1.9 0.3 0.0 11.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.2 4.7 3.9 1.3 0.1 12.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.5 5.0 3.5 0.8 0.1 12.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.9 4.7 2.9 0.5 0.0 11.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 2.9 4.4 2.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 10.7 7th
8th 0.1 1.0 2.8 3.4 1.6 0.2 9.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.4 2.3 0.9 0.2 0.0 7.5 9th
10th 0.2 0.7 1.2 1.4 0.9 0.3 0.0 4.8 10th
Total 0.2 0.7 1.5 2.9 4.4 6.1 7.8 9.3 9.9 10.6 10.4 9.5 8.3 7.0 5.0 3.3 1.9 0.9 0.3 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 100.0% 0.9    0.9 0.0
16-2 91.9% 1.7    1.5 0.3 0.0
15-3 71.2% 2.4    1.6 0.8 0.0
14-4 43.1% 2.2    1.0 0.9 0.2 0.0
13-5 17.2% 1.2    0.3 0.6 0.3 0.0
12-6 3.1% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 8.9% 8.9 5.5 2.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 82.5% 56.5% 26.0% 7.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 59.8%
17-1 0.9% 58.9% 44.0% 14.9% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 26.5%
16-2 1.9% 42.8% 34.9% 7.8% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.1 12.0%
15-3 3.3% 29.2% 26.9% 2.2% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.4 3.0%
14-4 5.0% 21.1% 20.5% 0.6% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 4.0 0.7%
13-5 7.0% 16.4% 16.3% 0.1% 13.3 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 5.8 0.1%
12-6 8.3% 11.9% 11.9% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 7.3
11-7 9.5% 9.2% 9.2% 14.2 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 8.6
10-8 10.4% 6.3% 6.3% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 9.7
9-9 10.6% 5.4% 5.4% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 10.1
8-10 9.9% 3.5% 3.5% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 9.6
7-11 9.3% 2.4% 2.4% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 9.1
6-12 7.8% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.2 7.6
5-13 6.1% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 6.1
4-14 4.4% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 4.4
3-15 2.9% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 2.9
2-16 1.5% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 1.5
1-17 0.7% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 0.7
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 8.6% 8.2% 0.5% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.5 1.9 1.7 1.3 1.2 91.4 0.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 4.1 4.7 4.7 33.6 23.4 4.7 29.0