Preseason Rankings
Morehead St.
Ohio Valley
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating-0.5#187
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace63.3#315
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-2.1#243
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+1.6#128
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 1.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 42.6% 67.1% 41.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 1.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.5 13.0 14.6
.500 or above 84.0% 98.4% 83.4%
.500 or above in Conference 94.9% 99.6% 94.7%
Conference Champion 49.0% 72.8% 48.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.0% 0.3%
First Four6.1% 2.7% 6.2%
First Round39.5% 65.7% 38.5%
Second Round3.0% 10.6% 2.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.7% 2.7% 0.6%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.6% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Indiana (Away) - 3.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 31 - 22 - 5
Quad 416 - 418 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 13   @ Indiana L 57-76 4%    
  Nov 12, 2022 250   Bellarmine W 66-60 72%    
  Nov 15, 2022 56   @ West Virginia L 61-74 13%    
  Nov 18, 2022 72   @ Vanderbilt L 61-73 16%    
  Nov 26, 2022 159   @ Marshall L 71-75 37%    
  Dec 03, 2022 309   North Alabama W 72-61 83%    
  Dec 11, 2022 189   East Tennessee St. W 68-65 60%    
  Dec 14, 2022 251   @ Georgia Southern W 65-64 51%    
  Dec 17, 2022 198   @ Mercer L 64-66 43%    
  Dec 29, 2022 276   @ Tennessee St. W 69-66 58%    
  Dec 31, 2022 352   @ Tennessee Martin W 76-64 84%    
  Jan 05, 2023 339   Southern Indiana W 73-58 88%    
  Jan 07, 2023 330   Eastern Illinois W 71-58 86%    
  Jan 12, 2023 305   @ Tennessee Tech W 72-67 65%    
  Jan 14, 2023 281   Southeast Missouri St. W 77-68 77%    
  Jan 19, 2023 326   @ SIU Edwardsville W 71-64 70%    
  Jan 21, 2023 355   @ Lindenwood W 74-61 85%    
  Jan 26, 2023 261   Arkansas Little Rock W 70-62 73%    
  Jan 28, 2023 326   SIU Edwardsville W 74-61 84%    
  Feb 02, 2023 305   Tennessee Tech W 75-64 80%    
  Feb 04, 2023 339   @ Southern Indiana W 70-61 75%    
  Feb 09, 2023 261   @ Arkansas Little Rock W 67-65 56%    
  Feb 11, 2023 281   @ Southeast Missouri St. W 74-71 60%    
  Feb 16, 2023 276   Tennessee St. W 72-63 75%    
  Feb 18, 2023 355   Lindenwood W 77-58 93%    
  Feb 23, 2023 330   @ Eastern Illinois W 68-61 72%    
  Feb 25, 2023 352   Tennessee Martin W 79-61 92%    
Projected Record 18 - 9 14 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.1 5.9 10.7 13.0 10.8 6.1 49.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 2.9 6.0 6.6 3.7 1.0 20.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 2.8 4.4 3.2 0.9 0.1 12.1 3rd
4th 0.1 0.6 2.3 3.0 1.4 0.2 7.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.5 1.8 0.6 0.1 4.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.0 1.0 0.3 0.0 2.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.2 1.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.4 2.3 3.3 5.0 7.1 9.2 11.5 13.4 14.5 13.9 10.8 6.1 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 6.1    6.1
17-1 100.0% 10.8    10.5 0.3
16-2 93.2% 13.0    11.0 1.9 0.0
15-3 73.7% 10.7    7.2 3.2 0.3
14-4 44.3% 5.9    2.8 2.6 0.5 0.0
13-5 18.1% 2.1    0.6 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 3.8% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 49.0% 49.0 38.2 9.2 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 6.1% 84.9% 84.5% 0.4% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 1.6 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.9 2.4%
17-1 10.8% 74.7% 74.7% 0.1% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.2 2.9 1.6 0.3 2.7 0.4%
16-2 13.9% 63.4% 63.4% 0.0% 14.4 0.0 0.3 1.4 3.0 2.9 1.2 5.1 0.0%
15-3 14.5% 52.4% 52.4% 14.8 0.1 0.6 1.9 3.0 2.0 6.9
14-4 13.4% 39.7% 39.7% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.0 2.4 8.1
13-5 11.5% 29.4% 29.4% 15.6 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.2 8.1
12-6 9.2% 22.8% 22.8% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.7 7.1
11-7 7.1% 15.9% 15.9% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.0 6.0
10-8 5.0% 10.9% 10.9% 16.0 0.0 0.5 4.5
9-9 3.3% 7.4% 7.4% 16.0 0.2 3.1
8-10 2.3% 4.7% 4.7% 16.0 0.1 2.2
7-11 1.4% 4.0% 4.0% 16.0 0.1 1.3
6-12 0.7% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 0.7
5-13 0.4% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 0.4
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 42.6% 42.6% 0.0% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.5 5.9 10.2 11.2 12.0 57.4 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 6.1 16.1 14.6 36.5 7.3 10.9 10.9 3.6