Preseason Rankings
Longwood
Big South
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+0.9#152
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace65.6#254
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+1.3#149
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-0.4#183
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.6% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 2.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 26.7% 46.2% 25.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 2.9% 0.1%
Average Seed 13.9 12.3 14.0
.500 or above 86.1% 98.4% 85.3%
.500 or above in Conference 88.8% 98.0% 88.2%
Conference Champion 34.0% 57.4% 32.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.8% 0.1% 0.8%
First Four1.9% 1.3% 2.0%
First Round25.7% 45.4% 24.3%
Second Round3.1% 10.5% 2.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.8% 3.1% 0.6%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.5% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.3% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Alabama (Away) - 6.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 33 - 33 - 6
Quad 416 - 419 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 22   @ Alabama L 69-85 7%    
  Nov 11, 2022 123   @ George Mason L 65-71 31%    
  Nov 18, 2022 272   VMI W 79-69 80%    
  Nov 19, 2022 319   Fairleigh Dickinson W 83-69 88%    
  Nov 20, 2022 326   SIU Edwardsville W 78-64 88%    
  Nov 29, 2022 176   @ San Diego L 67-69 44%    
  Dec 03, 2022 358   @ Delaware St. W 82-65 92%    
  Dec 10, 2022 94   @ Wichita St. L 66-74 25%    
  Dec 13, 2022 314   @ St. Francis Brooklyn W 75-68 72%    
  Dec 17, 2022 265   @ The Citadel W 77-74 61%    
  Dec 20, 2022 356   South Carolina St. W 85-63 96%    
  Dec 29, 2022 255   High Point W 73-65 75%    
  Dec 31, 2022 256   @ Campbell W 66-63 59%    
  Jan 04, 2023 335   @ Charleston Southern W 77-68 77%    
  Jan 07, 2023 174   Winthrop W 74-70 64%    
  Jan 11, 2023 211   @ UNC Asheville L 71-72 49%    
  Jan 14, 2023 345   South Carolina Upstate W 80-63 91%    
  Jan 18, 2023 237   Gardner-Webb W 72-65 72%    
  Jan 21, 2023 310   @ Presbyterian W 70-63 71%    
  Jan 25, 2023 293   @ Radford W 69-63 67%    
  Jan 28, 2023 335   Charleston Southern W 80-65 88%    
  Feb 01, 2023 174   @ Winthrop L 71-73 44%    
  Feb 04, 2023 256   Campbell W 69-60 76%    
  Feb 08, 2023 310   Presbyterian W 73-60 84%    
  Feb 11, 2023 255   @ High Point W 70-68 58%    
  Feb 15, 2023 345   @ South Carolina Upstate W 77-66 81%    
  Feb 18, 2023 293   Radford W 72-60 82%    
  Feb 22, 2023 237   @ Gardner-Webb W 69-68 53%    
  Feb 25, 2023 211   UNC Asheville W 74-68 67%    
Projected Record 19 - 10 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.0 5.1 8.4 8.8 6.4 2.8 34.0 1st
2nd 0.1 0.7 3.3 6.4 6.1 3.3 0.6 20.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.6 5.5 3.5 0.9 0.1 14.7 3rd
4th 0.1 1.0 3.3 4.1 1.8 0.3 0.0 10.6 4th
5th 0.1 1.0 2.8 2.7 0.9 0.1 7.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.2 1.7 0.5 0.0 5.5 6th
7th 0.2 0.7 1.4 1.0 0.2 0.0 3.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.9 2.8 4.3 5.9 7.7 9.5 11.0 12.2 12.2 11.7 9.5 6.4 2.8 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 2.8    2.8
17-1 100.0% 6.4    6.2 0.2
16-2 93.3% 8.8    7.5 1.3 0.0
15-3 71.7% 8.4    5.6 2.6 0.3
14-4 42.3% 5.1    2.3 2.3 0.5 0.0
13-5 16.6% 2.0    0.5 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.8% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 34.0% 34.0 24.9 7.3 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 2.8% 76.9% 73.4% 3.5% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.6 13.1%
17-1 6.4% 63.4% 62.5% 0.9% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.1 1.5 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.4 2.4%
16-2 9.5% 50.3% 50.0% 0.2% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.7 1.6 0.5 0.1 4.7 0.5%
15-3 11.7% 40.8% 40.7% 0.0% 14.0 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.9 1.2 0.2 7.0 0.0%
14-4 12.2% 31.4% 31.4% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 1.3 0.5 8.3
13-5 12.2% 22.9% 22.9% 14.8 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.1 0.7 9.4
12-6 11.0% 16.7% 16.7% 15.1 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.7 9.2
11-7 9.5% 11.7% 11.7% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 8.4
10-8 7.7% 9.1% 9.1% 15.7 0.0 0.2 0.5 7.0
9-9 5.9% 6.1% 6.1% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 5.5
8-10 4.3% 3.6% 3.6% 16.0 0.0 0.2 4.2
7-11 2.8% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.1 2.8
6-12 1.9% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 1.8
5-13 1.1% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 1.1
4-14 0.6% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 0.6
3-15 0.2% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.2
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 26.7% 26.5% 0.2% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.8 3.0 5.7 7.0 5.6 4.0 73.3 0.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 93.6% 5.7 3.1 20.2 30.4 21.8 4.9 5.2 4.6 3.4