Preseason Rankings
San Diego
West Coast
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating-0.3#176
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace65.4#259
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-1.4#229
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+1.0#141
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.6% 3.5% 0.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.0% 1.5% 0.2%
Average Seed 11.8 11.6 13.3
.500 or above 35.0% 45.5% 15.9%
.500 or above in Conference 29.2% 36.0% 17.0%
Conference Champion 0.6% 0.8% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 20.8% 15.3% 30.9%
First Four0.7% 1.0% 0.3%
First Round2.2% 3.1% 0.7%
Second Round0.6% 0.9% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida Gulf Coast (Home) - 64.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 21 - 41 - 8
Quad 34 - 55 - 13
Quad 47 - 212 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2022 203   Florida Gulf Coast W 75-71 64%    
  Nov 13, 2022 325   NJIT W 72-59 87%    
  Nov 17, 2022 76   Utah St. L 65-70 32%    
  Nov 25, 2022 111   New Mexico St. L 65-69 36%    
  Nov 29, 2022 152   Longwood W 69-67 56%    
  Dec 01, 2022 264   UC San Diego W 74-66 75%    
  Dec 03, 2022 105   UNLV L 66-68 43%    
  Dec 10, 2022 193   California Baptist W 71-67 61%    
  Dec 18, 2022 61   @ Arizona St. L 61-73 16%    
  Dec 20, 2022 207   @ UC Riverside L 65-67 44%    
  Dec 22, 2022 311   @ Cal St. Northridge W 70-64 68%    
  Dec 29, 2022 44   @ St. Mary's L 56-70 13%    
  Dec 31, 2022 83   @ San Francisco L 65-75 20%    
  Jan 05, 2023 228   Pacific W 72-66 67%    
  Jan 07, 2023 55   BYU L 66-73 29%    
  Jan 12, 2023 194   Pepperdine W 74-70 62%    
  Jan 14, 2023 155   @ Loyola Marymount L 66-70 37%    
  Jan 19, 2023 154   @ Portland L 69-73 37%    
  Jan 26, 2023 194   @ Pepperdine L 71-73 43%    
  Jan 28, 2023 83   San Francisco L 68-72 36%    
  Feb 02, 2023 154   Portland W 72-70 56%    
  Feb 04, 2023 155   @ Loyola Marymount L 66-70 37%    
  Feb 09, 2023 127   @ Santa Clara L 70-76 31%    
  Feb 11, 2023 228   @ Pacific L 68-69 49%    
  Feb 16, 2023 44   St. Mary's L 59-67 26%    
  Feb 23, 2023 1   @ Gonzaga L 64-89 3%    
  Feb 25, 2023 127   Santa Clara L 73-74 49%    
Projected Record 12 - 15 6 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 1st
2nd 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 3.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.5 2.5 1.9 0.7 0.1 6.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.5 3.8 2.1 0.4 0.0 9.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 3.5 4.9 1.9 0.2 0.0 11.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 4.2 5.5 1.9 0.2 12.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 4.6 6.1 2.0 0.1 13.5 7th
8th 0.0 1.3 5.5 5.9 1.6 0.1 0.0 14.4 8th
9th 0.2 2.3 5.6 4.9 1.3 0.1 14.3 9th
10th 1.5 3.8 4.8 3.0 0.6 0.0 13.7 10th
Total 1.5 4.0 7.1 9.9 11.8 12.5 12.5 11.6 9.6 7.4 5.2 3.5 2.1 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-1 68.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0
14-2 49.8% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
13-3 17.2% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-4 4.8% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-5 0.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.6% 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.0% 100.0% 37.5% 62.5% 4.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-1 0.1% 77.2% 11.2% 66.0% 5.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 74.3%
14-2 0.4% 64.3% 17.0% 47.3% 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 57.0%
13-3 1.0% 36.1% 9.7% 26.4% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 29.2%
12-4 2.1% 21.4% 7.1% 14.2% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.7 15.3%
11-5 3.5% 9.0% 5.5% 3.6% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.2 3.8%
10-6 5.2% 5.1% 4.0% 1.1% 12.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.9 1.1%
9-7 7.4% 2.3% 2.2% 0.1% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.2 0.1%
8-8 9.6% 2.2% 2.1% 0.1% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 9.4 0.1%
7-9 11.6% 1.4% 1.4% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 11.4
6-10 12.5% 1.0% 1.0% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 12.4
5-11 12.5% 0.7% 0.7% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 12.4
4-12 11.8% 0.4% 0.4% 15.9 0.0 0.0 11.7
3-13 9.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 9.9
2-14 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 7.1
1-15 4.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.0
0-16 1.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.5
Total 100% 2.6% 1.5% 1.0% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 97.4 1.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%