Preseason Rankings
California Baptist
Western Athletic
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating-0.9#193
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.7#158
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-0.3#190
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-0.5#189
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.1% 9.4% 3.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.4% 0.7% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.4 13.1 14.5
.500 or above 56.4% 69.6% 36.9%
.500 or above in Conference 53.6% 63.1% 39.6%
Conference Champion 7.1% 9.7% 3.2%
Last Place in Conference 7.6% 4.7% 11.9%
First Four1.0% 1.0% 0.9%
First Round6.7% 8.9% 3.3%
Second Round0.9% 1.4% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Long Beach St. (Home) - 59.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 34 - 64 - 10
Quad 411 - 415 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 188   Long Beach St. W 78-75 60%    
  Nov 11, 2022 325   NJIT W 75-63 87%    
  Nov 15, 2022 311   Cal St. Northridge W 75-64 84%    
  Nov 17, 2022 89   @ Washington L 69-79 18%    
  Nov 21, 2022 90   Minnesota L 66-73 27%    
  Nov 26, 2022 263   Central Michigan W 77-69 74%    
  Nov 30, 2022 207   UC Riverside W 70-66 62%    
  Dec 03, 2022 273   @ Cal Poly W 68-66 57%    
  Dec 07, 2022 208   Weber St. W 77-73 62%    
  Dec 10, 2022 176   @ San Diego L 67-71 39%    
  Dec 22, 2022 278   Portland St. W 78-70 75%    
  Dec 29, 2022 116   @ Grand Canyon L 65-73 27%    
  Dec 31, 2022 173   @ Seattle L 71-75 39%    
  Jan 05, 2023 253   Utah Tech W 66-59 70%    
  Jan 07, 2023 111   @ New Mexico St. L 65-73 27%    
  Jan 11, 2023 156   Utah Valley W 70-69 54%    
  Jan 14, 2023 116   Grand Canyon L 68-70 45%    
  Jan 21, 2023 245   Tarleton St. W 68-62 68%    
  Jan 25, 2023 248   @ Texas Arlington L 67-68 50%    
  Jan 28, 2023 303   @ UT Rio Grande Valley W 77-72 64%    
  Feb 01, 2023 177   Southern Utah W 76-74 58%    
  Feb 04, 2023 147   Abilene Christian W 75-74 52%    
  Feb 08, 2023 156   @ Utah Valley L 67-72 36%    
  Feb 11, 2023 111   New Mexico St. L 68-70 44%    
  Feb 15, 2023 173   Seattle W 74-72 57%    
  Feb 23, 2023 175   @ Sam Houston St. L 65-69 39%    
  Feb 26, 2023 166   @ Stephen F. Austin L 70-74 38%    
  Mar 01, 2023 303   UT Rio Grande Valley W 80-69 79%    
  Mar 03, 2023 177   @ Southern Utah L 73-77 39%    
Projected Record 15 - 14 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.7 2.1 1.4 0.7 0.2 7.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.7 2.9 2.2 0.9 0.1 8.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.9 3.4 2.2 0.5 0.0 8.2 3rd
4th 0.1 1.7 3.8 2.2 0.4 0.0 8.4 4th
5th 0.1 1.3 3.9 2.6 0.5 0.0 8.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 3.8 3.3 0.6 0.0 8.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 3.3 3.7 0.8 0.0 8.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.6 4.1 1.2 0.1 0.0 8.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.2 4.0 1.8 0.1 8.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.8 3.7 1.9 0.2 0.0 7.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 1.7 3.1 1.9 0.3 0.0 7.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.5 1.6 2.2 1.4 0.3 0.0 6.0 12th
13th 0.2 0.8 1.4 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 4.6 13th
Total 0.2 0.8 2.0 3.4 4.9 6.8 8.5 9.4 10.5 10.3 10.0 9.2 7.9 6.4 4.4 3.0 1.5 0.7 0.2 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 0.7    0.6 0.0
16-2 91.6% 1.4    1.1 0.3 0.0
15-3 69.8% 2.1    1.3 0.7 0.1
14-4 38.8% 1.7    0.6 0.8 0.2 0.0
13-5 13.8% 0.9    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 7.1% 7.1 4.1 2.2 0.6 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 83.1% 47.2% 35.9% 8.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 67.9%
17-1 0.7% 60.3% 44.9% 15.4% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 28.0%
16-2 1.5% 42.7% 34.1% 8.6% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.9 13.1%
15-3 3.0% 26.6% 24.4% 2.2% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.2 3.0%
14-4 4.4% 19.5% 19.3% 0.2% 12.9 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 3.5 0.2%
13-5 6.4% 14.8% 14.7% 0.1% 13.4 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 5.4 0.1%
12-6 7.9% 10.9% 10.9% 0.0% 13.9 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 7.1 0.0%
11-7 9.2% 7.6% 7.6% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 8.5
10-8 10.0% 5.7% 5.7% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 9.5
9-9 10.3% 4.3% 4.3% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 9.9
8-10 10.5% 2.7% 2.7% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 10.2
7-11 9.4% 2.1% 2.1% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 9.2
6-12 8.5% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 0.1 8.4
5-13 6.8% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 6.7
4-14 4.9% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 4.8
3-15 3.4% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 3.3
2-16 2.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.0
1-17 0.8% 0.8
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 7.1% 6.7% 0.4% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.5 1.4 1.1 1.1 92.9 0.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 94.5% 5.2 5.5 12.1 49.5 16.5 11.0
Lose Out 0.0%