Preseason Rankings
Minnesota
Big Ten
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+6.4#90
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace64.4#285
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.8#80
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.6#108
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.6% 1.8% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 3.8% 4.2% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.9% 16.0% 2.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 12.5% 13.5% 1.6%
Average Seed 8.4 8.3 11.1
.500 or above 50.3% 53.4% 15.8%
.500 or above in Conference 23.6% 25.1% 6.2%
Conference Champion 1.3% 1.4% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 22.3% 20.3% 44.7%
First Four2.1% 2.2% 0.9%
First Round14.0% 15.0% 2.4%
Second Round7.4% 8.0% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen2.6% 2.8% 0.1%
Elite Eight1.0% 1.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Western Michigan (Home) - 91.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 61 - 6
Quad 1b1 - 42 - 9
Quad 23 - 45 - 13
Quad 33 - 28 - 15
Quad 46 - 015 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 262   Western Michigan W 74-59 92%    
  Nov 11, 2022 314   St. Francis Brooklyn W 80-61 96%    
  Nov 14, 2022 91   DePaul W 73-70 61%    
  Nov 17, 2022 263   Central Michigan W 78-63 90%    
  Nov 21, 2022 193   California Baptist W 73-66 73%    
  Nov 28, 2022 34   @ Virginia Tech L 61-70 24%    
  Dec 04, 2022 24   @ Purdue L 65-75 20%    
  Dec 08, 2022 15   Michigan L 67-73 33%    
  Dec 11, 2022 64   Mississippi St. W 68-67 52%    
  Dec 14, 2022 360   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 82-52 99%    
  Dec 22, 2022 362   Chicago St. W 84-53 99%    
  Dec 29, 2022 350   Alcorn St. W 81-57 97%    
  Jan 03, 2023 41   @ Wisconsin L 63-71 26%    
  Jan 07, 2023 98   Nebraska W 77-73 62%    
  Jan 12, 2023 36   @ Ohio St. L 64-73 25%    
  Jan 16, 2023 18   Illinois L 67-72 34%    
  Jan 19, 2023 24   Purdue L 68-72 37%    
  Jan 22, 2023 15   @ Michigan L 64-76 18%    
  Jan 25, 2023 13   Indiana L 66-72 32%    
  Jan 28, 2023 85   @ Northwestern L 67-71 39%    
  Feb 01, 2023 43   @ Rutgers L 62-69 27%    
  Feb 04, 2023 48   Maryland L 69-70 46%    
  Feb 07, 2023 18   @ Illinois L 64-75 19%    
  Feb 12, 2023 29   Iowa L 74-77 40%    
  Feb 15, 2023 25   @ Michigan St. L 66-76 22%    
  Feb 18, 2023 66   Penn St. W 64-63 52%    
  Feb 22, 2023 48   @ Maryland L 66-73 28%    
  Feb 25, 2023 98   @ Nebraska L 74-76 43%    
  Mar 02, 2023 43   Rutgers L 65-66 45%    
  Mar 05, 2023 41   Wisconsin L 66-68 45%    
Projected Record 15 - 15 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 1.4 1.1 0.4 0.0 3.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 1.5 1.6 0.5 0.0 0.0 4.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.6 2.2 0.7 0.1 0.0 4.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.6 2.5 1.2 0.1 0.0 5.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.2 1.6 0.2 0.0 6.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.5 2.3 0.3 0.0 7.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.5 3.7 3.1 0.6 0.0 9.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.9 4.1 3.4 0.9 0.0 10.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.7 2.4 4.6 3.5 1.0 0.1 0.0 12.2 12th
13th 0.2 1.4 3.5 4.7 3.2 1.0 0.1 0.0 14.1 13th
14th 1.4 3.1 4.5 3.8 1.8 0.6 0.1 15.3 14th
Total 1.4 3.3 5.9 8.0 9.3 10.6 10.4 10.0 9.4 8.1 6.4 5.5 4.2 2.9 2.0 1.2 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
18-2 96.8% 0.2    0.1 0.0
17-3 76.2% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
16-4 46.9% 0.4    0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
15-5 21.3% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 6.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.3% 1.3 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 100.0% 16.1% 83.9% 1.5 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.1% 100.0% 22.6% 77.4% 1.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.2% 100.0% 13.5% 86.5% 2.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 0.4% 100.0% 15.6% 84.4% 3.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 0.7% 100.0% 12.4% 87.6% 4.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 1.2% 98.3% 12.3% 86.0% 5.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.1%
14-6 2.0% 95.2% 8.5% 86.7% 6.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 94.7%
13-7 2.9% 84.8% 9.2% 75.5% 7.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.4 83.2%
12-8 4.2% 66.8% 6.5% 60.2% 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 1.4 64.4%
11-9 5.5% 42.2% 4.8% 37.4% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 3.2 39.3%
10-10 6.4% 21.7% 4.1% 17.5% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 5.0 18.3%
9-11 8.1% 6.4% 3.2% 3.2% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.5 3.3%
8-12 9.4% 3.4% 2.9% 0.4% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 9.1 0.4%
7-13 10.0% 2.0% 2.0% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 9.8
6-14 10.4% 1.6% 1.6% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10.2
5-15 10.6% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.1 10.5
4-16 9.3% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 9.2
3-17 8.0% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 8.0
2-18 5.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 5.9
1-19 3.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.3
0-20 1.4% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 1.4
Total 100% 14.9% 2.8% 12.1% 8.4 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.3 1.7 2.1 1.9 2.0 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 85.1 12.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.5 47.6 52.4