Preseason Rankings
Iowa
Big Ten
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+12.7#29
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace73.8#50
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+9.8#7
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.9#101
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.8% 0.8% 0.0%
#1 Seed 3.7% 3.7% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 8.2% 8.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 19.1% 19.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 30.6% 30.7% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 55.3% 55.4% 5.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 51.4% 51.5% 4.0%
Average Seed 6.1 6.1 11.0
.500 or above 80.6% 80.7% 24.0%
.500 or above in Conference 65.0% 65.1% 14.2%
Conference Champion 10.7% 10.8% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 4.2% 4.1% 19.7%
First Four3.7% 3.7% 2.0%
First Round53.6% 53.7% 5.9%
Second Round36.7% 36.7% 2.0%
Sweet Sixteen18.6% 18.7% 0.0%
Elite Eight9.1% 9.1% 0.0%
Final Four4.2% 4.2% 0.0%
Championship Game1.9% 1.9% 0.0%
National Champion0.8% 0.8% 0.0%

Next Game: Bethune-Cookman (Home) - 99.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 34 - 8
Quad 25 - 39 - 10
Quad 34 - 113 - 11
Quad 45 - 019 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 353   Bethune-Cookman W 91-59 99.9%   
  Nov 11, 2022 270   N.C. A&T W 88-67 98%    
  Nov 16, 2022 46   @ Seton Hall L 76-77 46%    
  Nov 21, 2022 307   Nebraska Omaha W 95-71 98%    
  Nov 25, 2022 65   Clemson W 78-74 63%    
  Nov 29, 2022 97   Georgia Tech W 82-72 79%    
  Dec 06, 2022 7   Duke L 78-83 34%    
  Dec 08, 2022 51   Iowa St. W 77-71 68%    
  Dec 11, 2022 41   Wisconsin W 77-72 64%    
  Dec 17, 2022 281   Southeast Missouri St. W 96-73 97%    
  Dec 21, 2022 330   Eastern Illinois W 88-61 98%    
  Dec 29, 2022 98   @ Nebraska W 86-82 63%    
  Jan 01, 2023 66   @ Penn St. W 71-70 54%    
  Jan 05, 2023 13   Indiana W 77-76 51%    
  Jan 08, 2023 43   @ Rutgers L 73-74 46%    
  Jan 12, 2023 15   Michigan W 78-77 52%    
  Jan 15, 2023 48   Maryland W 80-75 66%    
  Jan 18, 2023 85   Northwestern W 81-72 76%    
  Jan 21, 2023 36   @ Ohio St. L 75-77 43%    
  Jan 26, 2023 25   @ Michigan St. L 77-81 39%    
  Jan 29, 2023 43   Rutgers W 76-71 65%    
  Feb 04, 2023 18   Illinois W 78-77 53%    
  Feb 09, 2023 24   @ Purdue L 76-80 38%    
  Feb 12, 2023 90   @ Minnesota W 77-74 60%    
  Feb 16, 2023 36   Ohio St. W 78-74 61%    
  Feb 19, 2023 85   @ Northwestern W 78-75 59%    
  Feb 22, 2023 41   @ Wisconsin L 74-75 45%    
  Feb 25, 2023 25   Michigan St. W 80-78 57%    
  Feb 28, 2023 13   @ Indiana L 74-80 33%    
  Mar 05, 2023 98   Nebraska W 89-79 78%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.4 2.7 2.3 1.3 0.3 10.7 1st
2nd 0.1 0.7 2.3 3.2 2.5 1.0 0.2 0.0 10.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.8 2.7 3.3 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 9.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 2.7 3.6 1.8 0.3 0.0 9.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.6 3.7 1.7 0.3 0.0 8.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.3 3.5 1.8 0.3 8.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.6 2.1 0.3 0.0 7.7 7th
8th 0.2 1.2 3.2 2.4 0.4 0.0 7.3 8th
9th 0.1 0.9 2.8 2.3 0.5 0.0 6.6 9th
10th 0.1 0.8 2.3 2.4 0.6 0.0 6.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.8 2.1 0.7 0.0 0.0 5.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.6 1.6 0.6 0.1 4.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.3 1.0 0.4 0.1 3.7 13th
14th 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.4 14th
Total 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.8 6.2 7.3 8.0 9.3 9.3 9.4 8.9 7.9 6.9 5.4 3.8 2.5 1.3 0.3 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
19-1 98.7% 1.3    1.2 0.0
18-2 92.1% 2.3    1.9 0.3 0.0
17-3 72.4% 2.7    1.9 0.8 0.1
16-4 45.2% 2.4    1.1 1.1 0.2 0.0
15-5 18.8% 1.3    0.4 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
14-6 4.3% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 10.7% 10.7 6.9 3.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.3% 100.0% 31.7% 68.3% 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 1.3% 100.0% 26.1% 73.9% 1.4 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 2.5% 100.0% 23.1% 76.9% 1.8 1.1 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 3.8% 100.0% 19.5% 80.5% 2.4 0.9 1.3 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 5.4% 99.8% 18.0% 81.9% 3.3 0.4 1.2 1.6 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
15-5 6.9% 99.5% 13.6% 85.9% 4.4 0.1 0.5 1.6 1.6 1.3 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.4%
14-6 7.9% 98.0% 10.4% 87.6% 5.6 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.3 1.8 1.6 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 97.7%
13-7 8.9% 93.7% 8.8% 84.8% 6.9 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.7 1.7 1.4 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.6 93.1%
12-8 9.4% 80.5% 7.8% 72.8% 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.0 0.6 0.1 1.8 78.9%
11-9 9.3% 63.8% 7.1% 56.7% 8.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 1.2 1.3 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 3.4 61.0%
10-10 9.3% 37.9% 5.1% 32.7% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.8 34.5%
9-11 8.0% 15.4% 3.4% 12.0% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.8 12.4%
8-12 7.3% 5.4% 3.0% 2.4% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 6.9 2.5%
7-13 6.2% 3.5% 3.2% 0.3% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 6.0 0.3%
6-14 4.8% 2.0% 2.0% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 4.7
5-15 3.5% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 0.1 3.5
4-16 2.5% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 2.5
3-17 1.5% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 1.5
2-18 0.7% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 0.7
1-19 0.3% 0.3
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 55.3% 8.0% 47.3% 6.1 3.7 4.5 5.6 5.3 5.6 6.0 5.6 5.5 4.5 4.2 3.3 0.8 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 44.7 51.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.2 79.5 19.2 1.4