Preseason Rankings
Iowa St.
Big 12
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+10.0#51
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace66.4#230
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+2.4#114
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+7.6#18
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.2% 1.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 2.8% 2.8% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 7.9% 8.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 15.0% 15.1% 0.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 32.9% 33.3% 3.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 29.4% 29.7% 2.8%
Average Seed 6.9 6.9 8.7
.500 or above 57.5% 58.0% 13.1%
.500 or above in Conference 32.5% 32.9% 6.2%
Conference Champion 3.4% 3.4% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 21.1% 20.7% 55.1%
First Four3.0% 3.1% 0.4%
First Round31.7% 32.0% 3.7%
Second Round20.0% 20.2% 2.0%
Sweet Sixteen9.0% 9.1% 0.4%
Elite Eight4.1% 4.1% 0.0%
Final Four1.8% 1.8% 0.0%
Championship Game0.8% 0.8% 0.0%
National Champion0.3% 0.3% 0.0%

Next Game: IUPUI (Home) - 98.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 72 - 7
Quad 1b2 - 34 - 10
Quad 23 - 37 - 13
Quad 32 - 19 - 13
Quad 47 - 015 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 333   IUPUI W 75-51 99%    
  Nov 13, 2022 270   N.C. A&T W 77-58 95%    
  Nov 20, 2022 306   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 78-56 97%    
  Nov 24, 2022 16   Villanova L 60-65 34%    
  Nov 30, 2022 322   North Dakota W 81-58 97%    
  Dec 04, 2022 49   St. John's W 77-74 59%    
  Dec 08, 2022 29   @ Iowa L 71-77 32%    
  Dec 11, 2022 331   McNeese St. W 83-59 97%    
  Dec 18, 2022 262   Western Michigan W 74-56 93%    
  Dec 21, 2022 307   Nebraska Omaha W 83-61 96%    
  Dec 31, 2022 4   Baylor L 67-72 33%    
  Jan 04, 2023 33   @ Oklahoma L 63-68 34%    
  Jan 07, 2023 19   @ TCU L 62-69 28%    
  Jan 10, 2023 17   Texas Tech L 63-65 45%    
  Jan 14, 2023 6   @ Kansas L 65-76 19%    
  Jan 17, 2023 9   Texas L 61-65 37%    
  Jan 21, 2023 38   @ Oklahoma St. L 65-70 35%    
  Jan 24, 2023 68   Kansas St. W 69-64 65%    
  Jan 28, 2023 70   @ Missouri L 66-67 46%    
  Jan 30, 2023 17   @ Texas Tech L 60-68 28%    
  Feb 04, 2023 6   Kansas L 68-73 35%    
  Feb 08, 2023 56   @ West Virginia L 67-70 42%    
  Feb 11, 2023 38   Oklahoma St. W 68-67 54%    
  Feb 15, 2023 19   TCU L 65-66 46%    
  Feb 18, 2023 68   @ Kansas St. L 66-67 46%    
  Feb 21, 2023 9   @ Texas L 58-68 22%    
  Feb 25, 2023 33   Oklahoma W 66-65 53%    
  Feb 27, 2023 56   West Virginia W 70-67 60%    
  Mar 04, 2023 4   @ Baylor L 64-75 19%    
Projected Record 15 - 14 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 3.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.5 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.0 5.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.3 1.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 6.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.7 3.2 2.2 0.5 0.0 0.0 7.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.4 4.3 2.4 0.5 0.0 10.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 3.1 4.7 2.4 0.3 0.0 11.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.1 4.0 5.1 2.4 0.3 0.0 12.9 7th
8th 0.3 1.9 4.6 5.0 2.0 0.2 0.0 14.1 8th
9th 0.1 1.0 3.2 5.0 3.9 1.4 0.2 0.0 14.7 9th
10th 1.0 2.9 4.2 3.7 2.0 0.6 0.1 14.5 10th
Total 1.0 3.0 5.2 7.2 9.1 10.2 11.1 10.8 10.0 8.8 7.2 5.7 4.2 2.9 1.8 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
16-2 95.1% 0.5    0.5 0.1
15-3 74.4% 0.8    0.5 0.3 0.0
14-4 49.8% 0.9    0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-5 22.0% 0.6    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 5.2% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.4% 3.4 1.9 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 48.6% 51.4% 1.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.2% 100.0% 27.5% 72.5% 1.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 0.6% 100.0% 25.9% 74.1% 1.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 1.1% 100.0% 22.0% 78.0% 2.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 1.8% 100.0% 16.9% 83.1% 2.9 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 2.9% 99.5% 14.3% 85.2% 4.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.4%
12-6 4.2% 99.0% 11.3% 87.7% 5.2 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.8%
11-7 5.7% 94.1% 9.3% 84.8% 6.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 93.5%
10-8 7.2% 85.2% 8.2% 77.0% 7.6 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.1 83.9%
9-9 8.8% 61.6% 6.3% 55.3% 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.4 59.1%
8-10 10.0% 32.1% 5.0% 27.1% 9.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.8 28.5%
7-11 10.8% 11.0% 3.5% 7.5% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 9.6 7.8%
6-12 11.1% 3.3% 2.5% 0.8% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 10.7 0.8%
5-13 10.2% 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10.0 0.0%
4-14 9.1% 1.8% 1.8% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 8.9
3-15 7.2% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 7.1
2-16 5.2% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 5.1
1-17 3.0% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 2.9
0-18 1.0% 1.0
Total 100% 32.9% 5.0% 28.0% 6.9 1.2 1.7 2.4 2.7 3.4 3.6 3.9 3.8 3.2 2.8 2.6 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 67.1 29.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.2 80.4 19.6