Preseason Rankings
Texas
Big 12
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+17.0#9
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace60.9#345
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+7.8#16
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+9.2#7
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 4.0% 4.2% 0.5%
#1 Seed 14.0% 14.5% 1.5%
Top 2 Seed 26.0% 26.9% 4.0%
Top 4 Seed 45.5% 46.8% 13.1%
Top 6 Seed 59.8% 61.4% 22.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 79.1% 80.5% 45.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 75.3% 76.8% 41.3%
Average Seed 4.5 4.4 6.7
.500 or above 91.1% 92.1% 66.6%
.500 or above in Conference 77.2% 78.3% 50.1%
Conference Champion 21.6% 22.2% 5.9%
Last Place in Conference 3.0% 2.7% 10.2%
First Four2.4% 2.3% 3.4%
First Round78.1% 79.5% 44.3%
Second Round63.2% 64.6% 28.7%
Sweet Sixteen39.6% 40.7% 13.7%
Elite Eight22.9% 23.6% 6.2%
Final Four12.8% 13.2% 2.7%
Championship Game7.0% 7.2% 1.0%
National Champion3.7% 3.8% 0.2%

Next Game: UTEP (Home) - 96.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 63 - 6
Quad 1b3 - 27 - 8
Quad 25 - 112 - 9
Quad 33 - 015 - 9
Quad 47 - 022 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 148   UTEP W 73-54 96%    
  Nov 10, 2022 298   Houston Christian W 71-43 99%    
  Nov 16, 2022 1   Gonzaga L 74-75 45%    
  Nov 21, 2022 320   Northern Arizona W 78-51 99%    
  Nov 26, 2022 303   UT Rio Grande Valley W 83-55 99%    
  Dec 01, 2022 14   Creighton W 68-63 65%    
  Dec 06, 2022 18   Illinois W 68-66 58%    
  Dec 10, 2022 360   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 84-44 100.0%   
  Dec 12, 2022 206   Rice W 80-58 96%    
  Dec 18, 2022 57   Stanford W 68-61 73%    
  Dec 21, 2022 158   Louisiana W 71-51 94%    
  Dec 27, 2022 343   Texas A&M - Commerce W 82-49 99.6%   
  Dec 31, 2022 33   @ Oklahoma W 65-63 56%    
  Jan 03, 2023 68   Kansas St. W 71-59 82%    
  Jan 07, 2023 38   @ Oklahoma St. W 67-65 57%    
  Jan 11, 2023 19   TCU W 67-61 67%    
  Jan 14, 2023 17   Texas Tech W 66-61 67%    
  Jan 17, 2023 51   @ Iowa St. W 65-61 63%    
  Jan 21, 2023 56   @ West Virginia W 69-65 64%    
  Jan 24, 2023 38   Oklahoma St. W 70-62 74%    
  Jan 28, 2023 10   @ Tennessee L 64-67 41%    
  Jan 30, 2023 4   Baylor W 68-67 55%    
  Feb 04, 2023 68   @ Kansas St. W 68-62 67%    
  Feb 06, 2023 6   @ Kansas L 67-71 38%    
  Feb 11, 2023 56   West Virginia W 72-62 80%    
  Feb 13, 2023 17   @ Texas Tech L 63-64 48%    
  Feb 18, 2023 33   Oklahoma W 68-60 73%    
  Feb 21, 2023 51   Iowa St. W 68-58 78%    
  Feb 25, 2023 4   @ Baylor L 65-70 36%    
  Mar 01, 2023 19   @ TCU L 64-65 49%    
  Mar 04, 2023 6   Kansas W 70-68 57%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.5 1.9 4.4 5.6 5.0 3.1 1.1 21.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.7 5.8 4.6 2.0 0.3 17.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.6 4.5 5.3 2.6 0.6 0.0 14.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.5 4.1 1.5 0.2 12.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.0 3.2 0.7 0.1 9.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.5 2.3 0.6 0.0 8.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.6 1.5 0.3 0.0 6.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.8 1.1 0.2 0.0 4.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.0 0.5 0.1 3.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.7 10th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.7 2.8 4.0 5.5 7.1 8.5 10.0 10.5 11.0 10.5 9.6 7.6 5.3 3.1 1.1 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.1    1.1
17-1 100.0% 3.1    3.0 0.1
16-2 94.0% 5.0    4.3 0.8 0.0
15-3 73.2% 5.6    3.9 1.6 0.1
14-4 46.2% 4.4    2.2 1.8 0.4 0.0
13-5 18.2% 1.9    0.7 0.8 0.3 0.1
12-6 4.5% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 21.6% 21.6 15.1 5.3 1.0 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.1% 100.0% 52.7% 47.3% 1.1 1.0 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-1 3.1% 100.0% 39.5% 60.5% 1.2 2.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 5.3% 100.0% 32.4% 67.6% 1.4 3.5 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 7.6% 100.0% 25.9% 74.1% 1.8 3.4 2.8 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 9.6% 100.0% 21.8% 78.2% 2.4 2.3 3.3 2.4 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 10.5% 99.9% 18.9% 81.0% 3.3 1.0 2.4 3.2 2.1 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
12-6 11.0% 99.3% 15.9% 83.4% 4.3 0.3 1.0 2.5 2.4 2.2 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.2%
11-7 10.5% 96.9% 12.1% 84.8% 5.5 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.8 2.2 1.9 1.4 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 96.5%
10-8 10.0% 91.0% 10.4% 80.6% 6.8 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.4 1.7 1.7 1.4 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.9 89.9%
9-9 8.5% 76.0% 8.0% 68.0% 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 73.9%
8-10 7.1% 48.3% 6.7% 41.6% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.7 44.6%
7-11 5.5% 23.8% 5.1% 18.7% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.2 19.7%
6-12 4.0% 8.5% 3.9% 4.5% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 3.7 4.7%
5-13 2.8% 3.8% 3.2% 0.6% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.7 0.6%
4-14 1.7% 2.0% 2.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 1.6
3-15 1.0% 2.1% 2.1% 15.9 0.0 0.0 1.0
2-16 0.5% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.5
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 79.1% 15.3% 63.7% 4.5 14.0 12.0 10.9 8.6 7.8 6.6 5.6 4.5 3.2 2.6 2.1 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 20.9 75.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 1.0 96.1 3.9