IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Northern Arizona
Big Sky
2022-23

Overall
Predictive Rating	-9.8	#320
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	64.4	#284
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-4.9	#304

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-4.9	#312

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	1.6%	9.6%	1.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.5	14.5	15.5

.500 or above	7.6%	40.6%	7.3%
.500 or above in Conference	22.6%	62.0%	22.4%
Conference Champion	1.3%	7.8%	1.3%
Last Place in Conference	23.7%	4.1%	23.8%

First Four	0.9%	2.6%	0.9%
First Round	1.2%	7.4%	1.2%
Second Round	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Michigan St. (Away) - 0.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 2	0 - 2
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 3
Quad 2	0 - 3	0 - 5
Quad 3	1 - 8	1 - 13
Quad 4	7 - 8	8 - 21

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 07, 2022	25	@ Michigan St.	L	57-83	1%
Nov 10, 2022	61	@ Arizona St.	L	57-79	2%
Nov 12, 2022	156	@ Utah Valley	L	60-74	12%
Nov 18, 2022	129	UC Santa Barbara	L	63-73	19%
Nov 21, 2022	9	Texas	L	51-78	1%
Nov 22, 2022	303	@ UT Rio Grande Valley	L	70-74	35%
Nov 27, 2022	147	Abilene Christian	L	68-76	25%
Dec 03, 2022	194	@ Pepperdine	L	67-79	17%
Dec 06, 2022	228	@ Pacific	L	64-74	21%
Dec 10, 2022	156	Utah Valley	L	63-71	28%
Dec 17, 2022	177	@ Southern Utah	L	66-79	15%
Dec 29, 2022	324	@ Idaho St.	L	64-67	42%
Dec 31, 2022	208	@ Weber St.	L	67-78	18%
Jan 05, 2023	170	Montana	L	63-70	29%
Jan 07, 2023	140	Montana St.	L	65-74	25%
Jan 12, 2023	278	@ Portland St.	L	68-75	30%
Jan 14, 2023	275	@ Sacramento St.	L	63-70	30%
Jan 19, 2023	342	Idaho	W	75-69	68%
Jan 21, 2023	185	Eastern Washington	L	70-76	31%
Jan 28, 2023	213	Northern Colorado	L	72-77	35%
Feb 02, 2023	140	@ Montana St.	L	62-77	13%
Feb 04, 2023	170	@ Montana	L	60-73	15%
Feb 06, 2023	324	Idaho St.	W	67-64	60%
Feb 09, 2023	275	Sacramento St.	L	66-67	48%
Feb 11, 2023	278	Portland St.	L	71-72	48%
Feb 16, 2023	185	@ Eastern Washington	L	67-79	17%
Feb 18, 2023	342	@ Idaho	L	71-72	50%
Feb 25, 2023	213	@ Northern Colorado	L	69-80	19%
Feb 27, 2023	208	Weber St.	L	70-75	34%
Projected Record						8 - 21	6 - 12

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big Sky Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st											0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0		1.3	1st
2nd										0.0	0.0	0.3	0.8	0.9	0.5	0.1	0.0				2.6	2nd
3rd										0.1	0.6	1.5	1.3	0.5	0.1	0.0					3.9	3rd
4th									0.2	1.2	2.5	1.7	0.5	0.0							6.1	4th
5th							0.0	0.4	2.1	3.4	2.1	0.4	0.0								8.4	5th
6th						0.0	0.9	3.2	4.3	2.3	0.4	0.0									11.2	6th
7th					0.2	1.7	4.8	5.2	2.1	0.3	0.0										14.3	7th
8th			0.0	0.7	3.3	6.2	5.1	1.7	0.2	0.0											17.2	8th
9th		0.2	2.0	5.4	6.2	3.9	1.0	0.1	0.0												18.8	9th
10th	1.5	3.9	5.1	3.8	1.5	0.4	0.0														16.2	10th

Total	1.5	4.1	7.1	10.0	11.2	12.2	11.8	10.5	8.9	7.3	5.6	3.9	2.6	1.7	0.9	0.5	0.2	0.1	0.0			Total

Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
17-1	100.0%	0.1		0.1
16-2	90.9%	0.2		0.1	0.0
15-3	71.6%	0.3		0.2	0.1
14-4	43.3%	0.4		0.2	0.2	0.0	0.0
13-5	14.7%	0.2		0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0
12-6	3.1%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0
11-7	0.1%	0.0					0.0
10-8	0.0%	0.0						0.0
9-9	0.0%

Total	1.3%	1.3		0.7	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.0%		42.9%	42.9%		12.3													0.0	0.0				0.0
17-1	0.1%		35.6%	35.6%		13.0												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0			0.0
16-2	0.2%		18.7%	18.7%		13.4													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.1
15-3	0.5%		21.3%	21.3%		14.2													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.4
14-4	0.9%		15.8%	15.8%		14.8													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.8
13-5	1.7%		9.6%	9.6%		15.1													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	1.5
12-6	2.6%		9.1%	9.1%		15.5														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	2.4
11-7	3.9%		5.8%	5.8%		15.7															0.0	0.0	0.2	3.6
10-8	5.6%		4.0%	4.0%		15.9																0.0	0.2	5.4
9-9	7.3%		2.1%	2.1%		16.0																0.0	0.1	7.1
8-10	8.9%		1.7%	1.7%		16.0																	0.2	8.8
7-11	10.5%		0.8%	0.8%		16.0																	0.1	10.4
6-12	11.8%		0.4%	0.4%		16.0																	0.0	11.8
5-13	12.2%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	12.2
4-14	11.2%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	11.2
3-15	10.0%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	10.0
2-16	7.1%																							7.1
1-17	4.1%																							4.1
0-18	1.5%																							1.5

Total	100%		1.6%	1.6%	0.0%	15.5												0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.3	1.1	98.4		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	1.0%