Preseason Rankings
Southern Utah
Western Athletic
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating-0.3#177
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace70.5#106
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+2.3#115
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-2.7#257
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.4% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.2% 14.0% 6.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.5% 1.7% 0.2%
Average Seed 13.3 12.4 14.0
.500 or above 53.0% 78.2% 44.9%
.500 or above in Conference 58.7% 76.4% 53.1%
Conference Champion 9.0% 16.8% 6.4%
Last Place in Conference 6.1% 1.8% 7.5%
First Four1.3% 1.5% 1.2%
First Round7.6% 13.3% 5.8%
Second Round1.1% 2.8% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.7% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: New Mexico (Away) - 24.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 34 - 54 - 10
Quad 48 - 313 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 110   @ New Mexico L 78-85 24%    
  Nov 18, 2022 6   @ Kansas L 67-88 3%    
  Nov 25, 2022 168   Texas St. L 69-70 49%    
  Nov 30, 2022 140   Montana St. W 76-75 53%    
  Dec 03, 2022 324   @ Idaho St. W 74-67 72%    
  Dec 10, 2022 191   Cal St. Fullerton W 73-72 52%    
  Dec 17, 2022 320   Northern Arizona W 79-66 85%    
  Dec 21, 2022 59   @ Colorado L 67-80 15%    
  Dec 29, 2022 111   @ New Mexico St. L 69-76 28%    
  Dec 31, 2022 303   UT Rio Grande Valley W 84-73 81%    
  Jan 05, 2023 245   @ Tarleton St. W 69-68 51%    
  Jan 07, 2023 147   @ Abilene Christian L 75-80 35%    
  Jan 12, 2023 175   Sam Houston St. W 71-68 59%    
  Jan 14, 2023 166   Stephen F. Austin W 77-74 58%    
  Jan 19, 2023 111   New Mexico St. L 72-73 46%    
  Jan 21, 2023 173   @ Seattle L 75-78 40%    
  Jan 26, 2023 156   Utah Valley W 74-72 57%    
  Feb 01, 2023 193   @ California Baptist L 74-76 42%    
  Feb 04, 2023 253   @ Utah Tech W 66-65 53%    
  Feb 09, 2023 245   Tarleton St. W 71-65 70%    
  Feb 11, 2023 156   @ Utah Valley L 71-75 38%    
  Feb 17, 2023 253   Utah Tech W 69-62 71%    
  Feb 23, 2023 248   @ Texas Arlington W 72-71 51%    
  Feb 25, 2023 175   @ Sam Houston St. L 68-71 41%    
  Mar 01, 2023 116   Grand Canyon L 72-73 47%    
  Mar 03, 2023 193   California Baptist W 77-73 61%    
Projected Record 13 - 13 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.0 2.5 1.9 1.0 0.3 9.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.7 3.1 2.6 1.1 0.2 0.0 9.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.7 3.8 2.5 0.7 0.0 9.0 3rd
4th 0.1 1.9 3.9 2.7 0.5 0.0 9.2 4th
5th 0.1 1.3 4.2 2.9 0.5 0.0 9.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 3.7 3.4 0.6 0.0 8.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 3.2 3.7 0.9 0.0 8.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.6 3.7 1.3 0.1 8.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.9 3.6 1.5 0.1 7.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.7 3.2 1.9 0.2 0.0 7.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.6 1.8 0.3 0.0 6.6 11th
12th 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.0 1.2 0.2 0.0 5.4 12th
13th 0.1 0.6 1.1 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 3.5 13th
Total 0.1 0.6 1.6 2.7 4.3 5.9 7.5 8.9 9.6 10.2 10.7 9.4 8.8 7.1 5.3 3.7 2.1 1.0 0.3 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 99.5% 1.0    1.0 0.0
16-2 89.6% 1.9    1.5 0.4 0.0
15-3 68.5% 2.5    1.6 0.9 0.1 0.0
14-4 38.0% 2.0    0.7 1.0 0.3 0.0
13-5 14.0% 1.0    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.0% 9.0 5.3 2.7 0.8 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 70.1% 44.5% 25.6% 8.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 46.1%
17-1 1.0% 57.1% 41.7% 15.4% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 26.5%
16-2 2.1% 42.1% 35.1% 7.0% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.2 10.8%
15-3 3.7% 27.5% 25.2% 2.3% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.7 3.0%
14-4 5.3% 18.4% 18.0% 0.4% 12.9 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 4.4 0.5%
13-5 7.1% 15.2% 15.1% 0.1% 13.5 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 6.0 0.1%
12-6 8.8% 10.1% 10.1% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 7.9
11-7 9.4% 8.0% 8.0% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 8.6
10-8 10.7% 5.8% 5.8% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 10.1
9-9 10.2% 5.0% 5.0% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 9.7
8-10 9.6% 2.7% 2.7% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 9.3
7-11 8.9% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.0 0.2 8.7
6-12 7.5% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 7.4
5-13 5.9% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 5.8
4-14 4.3% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 4.3
3-15 2.7% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 2.7
2-16 1.6% 1.6
1-17 0.6% 0.6
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 8.2% 7.7% 0.5% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.5 1.7 1.4 1.2 1.3 91.8 0.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%