IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Colorado
Pac-12
2022-23

Overall
Predictive Rating	+9.4	#59
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	68.4	#165
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+3.6	#85

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+5.8	#41

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.2%	0.2%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.9%	1.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	2.4%	2.6%	0.1%
Top 4 Seed	7.0%	7.6%	0.6%
Top 6 Seed	13.0%	14.1%	1.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid	36.1%	38.5%	11.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	31.5%	33.8%	9.3%
Average Seed	7.6	7.5	9.4

.500 or above	72.9%	76.3%	40.0%
.500 or above in Conference	59.2%	61.8%	33.3%
Conference Champion	6.3%	6.8%	1.4%
Last Place in Conference	4.1%	3.4%	10.7%

First Four	4.7%	4.9%	2.7%
First Round	33.8%	36.2%	10.6%
Second Round	19.5%	21.1%	4.4%
Sweet Sixteen	8.0%	8.7%	1.5%
Elite Eight	3.5%	3.8%	0.5%
Final Four	1.4%	1.5%	0.1%
Championship Game	0.6%	0.6%	0.0%
National Champion	0.2%	0.2%	0.0%

Next Game: UC Riverside (Home) - 90.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	1 - 4	1 - 4
Quad 1b	1 - 2	2 - 7
Quad 2	4 - 3	6 - 9
Quad 3	6 - 2	11 - 11
Quad 4	6 - 0	17 - 12

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 07, 2022	207	UC Riverside	W	74-60	91%
Nov 11, 2022	318	@ Grambling St.	W	78-62	93%
Nov 13, 2022	10	Tennessee	L	65-73	25%
Nov 17, 2022	124	Massachusetts	W	79-73	70%
Nov 27, 2022	146	Yale	W	76-65	83%
Dec 01, 2022	61	Arizona St.	W	70-67	61%
Dec 04, 2022	89	@ Washington	L	72-73	50%
Dec 08, 2022	78	Colorado St.	W	72-67	65%
Dec 15, 2022	309	North Alabama	W	80-59	96%
Dec 18, 2022	213	Northern Colorado	W	83-69	88%
Dec 21, 2022	177	Southern Utah	W	80-67	85%
Dec 29, 2022	57	@ Stanford	L	67-70	41%
Dec 31, 2022	128	@ California	W	66-63	61%
Jan 05, 2023	26	Oregon	L	72-73	48%
Jan 07, 2023	204	Oregon St.	W	78-64	87%
Jan 12, 2023	37	@ USC	L	66-72	33%
Jan 14, 2023	8	@ UCLA	L	63-74	20%
Jan 19, 2023	89	Washington	W	75-69	68%
Jan 22, 2023	71	Washington St.	W	70-66	63%
Jan 26, 2023	26	@ Oregon	L	69-76	30%
Jan 28, 2023	204	@ Oregon St.	W	75-67	73%
Feb 02, 2023	128	California	W	69-60	77%
Feb 05, 2023	57	Stanford	W	70-67	59%
Feb 11, 2023	84	@ Utah	L	69-70	48%
Feb 16, 2023	61	@ Arizona St.	L	67-70	42%
Feb 18, 2023	12	@ Arizona	L	73-82	23%
Feb 23, 2023	37	USC	W	69-68	52%
Feb 26, 2023	8	UCLA	L	66-71	36%
Mar 04, 2023	84	Utah	W	72-67	67%
Projected Record						17 - 12	10 - 10

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Pac-12 Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st														0.0	0.3	0.9	1.5	1.6	1.3	0.6	0.1		6.3	1st
2nd												0.0	0.1	0.7	2.1	2.9	2.1	0.8	0.1	0.0			8.8	2nd
3rd											0.0	0.2	1.1	3.2	3.4	1.7	0.4	0.0					10.0	3rd
4th										0.0	0.2	1.7	3.8	3.4	1.4	0.2	0.0						10.8	4th
5th									0.0	0.2	1.9	4.3	3.4	1.0	0.1	0.0							11.0	5th
6th								0.0	0.4	2.1	4.4	3.1	0.9	0.1									10.9	6th
7th							0.0	0.4	2.0	4.3	2.9	0.6	0.0										10.4	7th
8th						0.0	0.5	2.2	4.0	2.3	0.5	0.0											9.6	8th
9th					0.1	0.6	2.2	3.3	1.8	0.4	0.0												8.4	9th
10th			0.0	0.1	0.8	1.9	2.3	1.2	0.2	0.0													6.6	10th
11th		0.0	0.2	0.9	1.6	1.5	0.6	0.1	0.0														5.0	11th
12th	0.1	0.3	0.6	0.7	0.4	0.2	0.0	0.0															2.3	12th

Total	0.1	0.3	0.9	1.7	2.8	4.2	5.7	7.2	8.5	9.5	10.0	10.0	9.4	8.4	7.2	5.7	4.0	2.5	1.4	0.6	0.1			Total

Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	0.1		0.1
19-1	98.1%	0.6		0.5	0.0
18-2	91.1%	1.3		1.0	0.2	0.0
17-3	66.2%	1.6		1.1	0.5	0.1
16-4	37.5%	1.5		0.7	0.6	0.2	0.0
15-5	15.0%	0.9		0.3	0.4	0.2	0.1
14-6	4.0%	0.3		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
13-7	0.5%	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.0%
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	6.3%	6.3		3.7	1.9	0.5	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	0.1%		100.0%	47.2%	52.8%	1.4		0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0															100.0%
19-1	0.6%		100.0%	35.0%	65.0%	1.8		0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0		0.0												100.0%
18-2	1.4%		100.0%	29.2%	70.8%	2.4		0.3	0.5	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0											100.0%
17-3	2.5%		99.3%	23.0%	76.2%	3.5		0.2	0.4	0.7	0.5	0.4	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0								0.0		99.1%
16-4	4.0%		98.8%	18.5%	80.4%	4.9		0.0	0.2	0.6	0.9	0.8	0.6	0.4	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0					0.0		98.6%
15-5	5.7%		95.3%	14.4%	80.9%	6.3		0.0	0.1	0.3	0.6	1.0	1.0	1.0	0.6	0.5	0.2	0.1	0.0					0.3		94.5%
14-6	7.2%		86.1%	10.4%	75.7%	7.7			0.0	0.1	0.2	0.6	0.8	1.1	1.1	1.1	0.8	0.4	0.0					1.0		84.5%
13-7	8.4%		71.8%	8.4%	63.4%	8.9				0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.7	1.1	1.3	1.2	1.0	0.2	0.0				2.4		69.3%
12-8	9.4%		50.7%	7.2%	43.5%	9.8					0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.6	0.9	1.3	1.4	0.3	0.0				4.6		46.9%
11-9	10.0%		28.6%	5.5%	23.1%	10.5							0.0	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.8	1.0	0.4	0.0	0.0	0.0		7.1		24.5%
10-10	10.0%		13.7%	4.7%	9.0%	11.0								0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.5	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0		8.6		9.5%
9-11	9.5%		4.5%	3.1%	1.4%	12.7									0.0		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	9.1		1.4%
8-12	8.5%		2.1%	2.0%	0.1%	14.3												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	8.3		0.1%
7-13	7.2%		2.3%	2.3%		15.3													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	7.1
6-14	5.7%		1.7%	1.7%		15.9																0.0	0.1	5.6
5-15	4.2%		1.2%	1.2%		16.0																	0.1	4.1
4-16	2.8%		0.6%	0.6%		16.0																	0.0	2.8
3-17	1.7%		0.6%	0.6%		16.0																	0.0	1.7
2-18	0.9%																							0.9
1-19	0.3%																							0.3
0-20	0.1%																							0.1

Total	100%		36.1%	6.8%	29.3%	7.6		0.9	1.5	2.2	2.4	3.0	3.1	3.5	3.8	4.3	4.7	4.5	1.4	0.2	0.1	0.2	0.3	63.9		31.5%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.1%	100.0%	1.2	81.0	19.0